💍❤️ @0xWands Founder @LumoraMarketing The Trader SCUBA Diver
Republic of Mauritius
Joined March 2021
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My thoughts currently:
- Macro is extremely terrible. You can delay a recession/crash but at this point it’s unavoidable.
- US government wants you believing Iran conflict is the reason for the current inflation + yields spike. This is not true. It’s adding fuel to the fire but the main culprit is AI capex crowding out government bonds. For the first time in history the private sector is crowding out the public sector for investor’s money.
- Interest rates are hence going so much higher than anyone expects but will probably not cause the shock everyone is thinking they would cause by spiking up.
- Although I said recession is possible I don’t believe a 2008 scenario is possible due to the simple fact that the banking sector is solid AF. So yes, the AI trade will blow up big and bad but banks are fine and no systemic issues will follow that collapse. Job losses could spike and an ugly stagflation environment could persist for a while but by no means will there be any systemic risk or massive collapse or any bear porn doomposting. It will be a huge buy the dip opportunity.
- The era of the fed holding money hose aka QE and firing it at everybody is over. From now on, QE’s only job will either be to bail out the banking sector or stabilize it. Internal plumbing within the financial sector will be the move forward. Sound money isn’t coming back as governments have to fund ridiculously overblown budgets but neither will the free QE era of 2009-2022.
- A massive energy shock is in the making and nobody has any idea how bad it will get or when it will end. That’s the biggest tailwind now.
- AI capex is reaching its limits for now. This is wave 1 of early companies and 90% of them won’t survive to reap the rewards just like what happened with the dotcom bubble. All the AI is dangerous and will destroy us all advocates are a bunch of clowns.
- Massive massive rehiring will come again in a couple of years tops. The biggest losers will be the companies who rushed to lay off their staff early on. They destroyed their public picture forever.
- All markets are at a coinflip right now and the direction is 50/50 at best but considering all what I said and all this bearishness, tbh it makes sense that shitcoins pop like popcorn. The only counter argument I have here is what if they already had their scam pump and oblivion is upon us? I will play any dips we get but at best with 25% of my portfolio and will be happy with whatever 50-100% profit I make if any.
- Unfollow the crypto will decouple a pump on its own crowd. Your better off without unless you wanna test losing all of your money before the real BTFD moment. Any bets here should never be made with 100% size neither on the bullish or bearish sides.
- Shorting right now is dangerously destructive despite it being the best R/R in almost all markets except energy.
- Key is to survive, make monthly income and stack $$$ as I believe whatever is coming will make plenty of new millionaires.
- Finally, for freaking God’s sake ditch the fucking meme platforms before you lose everything you have you psychotic stupid fucks.
Over and out.
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I think whatever off market hours bounce will be wiped out by us market open.
I really don’t know what to expect as everyone was waiting to buy the dip including me and across all risk on.
Max pain scenario is down only as it should be never forget that:
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The problem with the latest drop in btc is that it happened in the last hour of the weekly and 2W close, manipulating it to close BELOW the previous body candle and avoiding a SFP by a small margin. The close now looks ugly. Period. This didn’t happen in summer 2023 nor march 2023. The caveat or glimmer of hope is that usdt dom closed below and made sfp. They really don’t wanna giveaway their intentions. Meanwhile total1/2/3 and others all look uglier than btc not to mention the horrendous behavior on eth has no beautiful/positive way to look at it.
One data point (usdt) looks optimistic and the rest look ugly AF. Dead cat bounce imo and we head lower. Got a long though so will eat a stop if wrong.
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Crypto is still so ignorant that ETF flows are being pictured as institutional demand. These are retail guys. They fomo just as you and even worse. Look at ETF inflows//outflows near the lows and highs and you will see. It’s not always telling but many times you will see large etf outflow near the bottom or large inflow near the highs. Pure fomo behavior!
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This guy gets it lol
“If he wants to pass Trumpcare-for-All, I'm ok with it.. Donald, if you're watching, we'll put your name on it. You get to be the American president who finally guaranteed health care for every single American."
@AbdulElSayed to me today, lol.
Full intv: zeteo.com/p/abdul-el-sayed-t…
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Stop following anybody else’s calls but your own and you will start making money.
Unfollow all of them and mute. It’s your own fucking money dude. Have a plan and stick to it, be as unbiased as you could be. I have been a bear since summer 2025. Did i make money? No and even when i was full port short my pnl was max +20-25% because shorting is a hedging strategy at best and doesnt really make money unless you’re a masochist. But guess what i am up around 10-15% since summer 2025. 99% are down and down bad that they need another 50% pump just to breakeven.
What changed in summer 2025? I decided to man the fuck up and stop following other people’s calls. I will draw a plan and stick to it. Macro is disgustingly bearish until otherwise and Thursday was an alarm bell not a capitulation event. If we recover from it to rally hire that will only make me short more.
Am i confident? Yes. Am I right or wrong? Not a single freaking clue man. Will i protect my capital? Yes!
When the end result come in a year or two I will only have myself to blame/praise and I am completely comfy with this outcome.
Please please have a look at the market as unbiased as you could be and develop a bias make sure you’re not following the herd blindly and challenge your kols.
Lemme tell you some of the best money i made was from countertrading my fav kols on top of them was fejau until eventually i learned the hard way i am far better off without them.
Listen, indulge and have fun as much as you like but never ever ever follow them blindly. It’s your money and your future on the stake here. If one of them is wrong they got multiple income streams to compensate always remember this.
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Plan for the upcoming period
We go up above 80k =short to new lows with trailing stops
We go down straight to 71-66k then buy the fear and most likely market bottomed (for now)
I believe this could a prolonged bear where people go crazy.
The real risk this time doesn’t come from crypto but tradfi.
Anything in the middle then i play it short term for quick profits.
Max pain scenario right now is that we go straight to 50k without a single retrace. Lots of ppl will get giga burned trying to buy dips including me.
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Had gold and silver longs
Gold printing while freaking silver took my stop and literally exploded lol
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I am a very light user of LLMs. I only chat with them. When I pay for a 20$/month subcription I thought I would never hit the limit but I just received a warning today for the first time ever that I hit 50% of my limit for the week.
Luckily my premium plus sub ends mid December. After that, I am out of here. Will get a low tier subscription and that's it.
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The whale alert withdrawals on Binance are genuinely so fking scary I am glad I got my money out. I tried to calculate them manually and I think it's around 4B$ in withdrawals with a margin of error 10% +/-
This is one of the most ruthless tests in all of crypto.
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Can confirm i withdrew my money out will come back again when the dust settles
Withdrawal Update
Withdrawals have now been restored for the following assets and networks:
- Ethereum Network: USDC, USDT, ETH
- BNB Smart Chain (BSC): USDC, USDT, BNB
We will continue to restore additional assets and networks in phases following the completion of our security checks. Further updates will be shared through official Binance channels.
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Binance enabled btc withdrawals first. Nice game theory. Everyone while panicking will rush to buy btc regardless of the price to withdraw. I would imagine they would be selling btc against that demand to replenish reserves.
Definitely lots of short sellers would benefit too. These guys know how to monetize anything.
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I love the confidence about the four year theory
“Historically” “data shows” “typically btc does so and so”
Dude chill this is literally like the third mature cycle or smth there is no data. There is no history. Everybody is just guessing so stop having so much face in this stupid hokum shit.
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Goated move by cz to do that to musk. Anybody who pwns musk like that has my respect even if i dislike them (in this case cz)
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There is some next level copium on the timeline on how this will end in a pump and so much selective bias choosing to compare it to ftx instead of bybit incident (which lead to two months of utter pain and endless dumps) although this incident is a copy pasta of the bybit hack and has absolutely nothing to compare with ftx.
The general consensus is that this is the fud news the bottom and that you need to buy everything right now at “peak fear”
Peak fear is -5% across the board lol
Just you wait until the 20% red candles come. You will see peak fear then. I am neither saying bottom is in or not. I don’t care anymore. 71-66k and 87-90k i am eyeing both levels to see where we arrive at first. Based on this I will be bearish/bullish.
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Give me a medal
Tbh we’ve had all the recipes for at the very least a local top forming. Today’s hyperliquid news followed by the polymarket hack literally few hours later is the nail in the coffin for me. I’ve seen this dynamic playing out before.
Any spikes upwards through the next days are gifts for shorting. A last sweep of 87k is too generous though.
Tbh we’ve had all the recipes for at the very least a local top forming. Today’s hyperliquid news followed by the polymarket hack literally few hours later is the nail in the coffin for me. I’ve seen this dynamic playing out before.
Any spikes upwards through the next days are gifts for shorting. A last sweep of 87k is too generous though.