Daniel //

Morena will stay in power. The window for American intervention has closed, if it was ever open in the first place. The United States does not overthrow governments that comply. It disciplines them. Mexico has been disciplined, and Mexico complies. In September, Rubio said Mexico's fight against the cartels "is not nearly enough" and that the U.S. would confront those organizations "one way or another". He also claimed that vast territories of Mexico are controlled by narco-terrorist organizations rather than the state. Yet this is pressure, not regime change. Rubio himself said he does not want to disrupt the relationship with Mexico, citing his rapport with Sheinbaum. Although Rubio would certainly prefer an ideological ally, he does not need one. He needs results on fentanyl, migration, and Chinese transshipment, and he is getting them. What guarantees this arrangement is the succession. The key variable is 2030. Omar García Harfuch is not an ideologue. He is a career police officer from a family of the old security state. Polls place him at 40% of Morena sympathizers' preferences for the 2030 candidacy. Velasco of the Green Party openly promoted him, Washington reportedly backed him, and Morena's hardliners distrust him. He publicly rules out running, saying his priority is security, but that denial is standard Mexican ritual. If Harfuch is the heir, Washington gets a security partner and right-leaning man inside a left-wing party. The same logic explains the foreign policy theater. Morena is, in large part, a continuation of PRI-style governance. Its cordial ties with Havana and its silence on Managua are not alignment but leverage. Refusing to condemn the Cuban and Nicaraguan dictatorships costs little and buys the appearance of independence. Washington understands this perfectly and allows it. It knows Mexico is not following the Cuban path. The rhetoric is domestic consumption and negotiating posture. In substance, the Mexican state is bound to the American one. The old PRI played the same game for decades: nationalism in the speeches, but the U.S. interests in the decisions. At home, the road from 2024 to mid-2026 was bumpy. Sheinbaum had to govern with a party built around another man, and the AMLO loyalists held key positions. That has largely been resolved. In February, Adán Augusto López left Morena's Senate coordination, with Ignacio Mier taking formal control while the Tabasco politician moved to "territorial work". Reports also emerged that Andy López Beltrán would leave the party's organization secretariat, to be replaced by Citlalli Hernández. The lesson of Mexican history applies: the outgoing caudillo's network always erodes. Calles fell to Cárdenas. Every PRI president eventually emancipated himself from his predecessor. Sheinbaum is following the script. Here lies the modern caveat. The PRI controlled people through unions, peasant leagues, and patronage. Morena is building control through data. The biometric CURP took effect after a decree was published, with reforms backed by Sheinbaum and Morena. It incorporates facial recognition and fingerprints to verify citizens' identity. Mobile phone lines were tied to registered owners, and unregistered lines were to be disabled after June 30, 2026, allowing only emergency calls. It is also linked to social programs and pensions, including registering for and collecting benefits. Combine this with direct cash transfers, and the state no longer needs union intermediaries. It knows who you are, where your phone is, and what money you receive. This is corporatism without corporations. The patron-client relationship has become individualized and digitized.