irlmaxxing I will be back in a few months selling vol at https://xitter.cf/t.co/lcNhqjPF07
miau🫪
Joined February 2012
- Tweets4.4K
- Following458
- Followers1.2K
- Likes52.1K
Let me explain the last part of my larp here
why risk assets could be at threat moving forward
Most retail investors have only experienced a long term secular bull market, supported in part by four decades of declining interest rates and a falling cost of capital.
Lower rates made borrowing cheaper, pushed valuations higher, and incentivised investors to move further out on the risk curve.
But what if that secular trend has reversed?
Structurally higher rates for several decades could mean sustained pressure on valuation multiples, higher financing costs, and slower earnings growth. Meanwhile, bonds and cash become increasingly attractive alternatives. This is also why I feel like its retarded to consider "long-term PE ratio average/median of nifty" as a way to determine whether the index is cheap or not.
Hi just wanted to make one post before i dip again
There is not enough blood on the street for me to buy nifty atm
A lot of people are still talking about buying the dip i still dont think nifty is attractive at these levels (my tf is 5 years out if you want to trade shorter tf then sure it might pump a lil but long term view is that we need another year of sideways market or a correction of 10-20%) dont get mislead by aggregate PE ratio the constituents are still over valued as I said 6 months back
When we see mutual fund managers, mutual fund distributors, pms distributors and employims committing mass sudoku because of sip redemption and subsequent nifty correction that is when we will have a real bottom
Also a lot of people here have no idea that commodities and bond yields can keep going higher for decades. A whole generation will learn a lesson from the next two three years
a chud sitting on his dumbass larping on twitter and making money by trading for 6 hours a day with infinite flexibility should not be paying the same tax as wagie slogging it out like a real chad it should be way higher
Govt should increase ltcg and stcg for retail
Told my friend to be careful and not give email access to Instinct man replies he has hedged it with $BUG
30% of my book is crude futures now what could go wrong
If you believe that it will stay this way then may god save you. The only reason oil hasn't gone parabolic is because trump wants to keep the future prices in control for his midterm psyop
Everytime wti tries to cross 92 we see a masterclass of psyop from trump, barak ravid and javier blas and all the nifty perma bulls start taking victory laps around it and I get graped on my Oil & Gas E&P stocks and crude futs
This time there have been really strong bids around 87-88 after news driven sell offs so we'll see who has the last laugh
pf held together with hopes and aspirations of a sensitive young investoor who only wants to recreate the big short on the vishwaguru index to liquidate the sipjeets and completely annihilate mutual fund manager-distributor industrial complex
btw did you know that your friendly mutual fund manager is forced to buy into overpriced trash IPOs otherwise the BRLMs and exiting investors don't allocate to them as anchors in good ipos
Issues plaguing swiggy
1. Getting mogged by zomato in food delivery
2. Getting mogged by blinkit and zepto in qcomm. Their positioning is typically of that a value focused customer and zepto is giving them a tuff time in that segment
3. Lack of focus. As an investor I have seen them experiment with a ton of things pyng, noice, crew, toing, etc. All of these ventures show that swiggy hasn't truly figured it out. You won't see Eternal just trying to jump on the next wave they are extremely thoughtful on capital allocation.
I think even the management team must be in a really tuff spot because what would you do. Do you defend your core of food delivery which is stagnating but could provide +ve fcf or do you fight in qcomm which is where most of the growth is present but will be -ve EV in short to medium term.
There are signs everywhere for those with the eyes to see
Hi just wanted to make one post before i dip again
There is not enough blood on the street for me to buy nifty atm
A lot of people are still talking about buying the dip i still dont think nifty is attractive at these levels (my tf is 5 years out if you want to trade shorter tf then sure it might pump a lil but long term view is that we need another year of sideways market or a correction of 10-20%) dont get mislead by aggregate PE ratio the constituents are still over valued as I said 6 months back
When we see mutual fund managers, mutual fund distributors, pms distributors and employims committing mass sudoku because of sip redemption and subsequent nifty correction that is when we will have a real bottom
Also a lot of people here have no idea that commodities and bond yields can keep going higher for decades. A whole generation will learn a lesson from the next two three years
