https://xitter.cf/t.co/wUAEFsLHVD — Football prediction and research platform for bettors. Deeper insight into every matchup.
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We’ve officially launched our new NEC Index.
✅ No paywall (FREE)
✅ 327 teams ranked
✅ Updated every matchday
Named after 🇳🇱 NEC Nijmegen — one of the most enjoyable, attack-driven teams in Europe — this rating measures a team’s true offensive identity and scoring environment.
NEC blends:
• Shot volume
• Goal production
• High-total match tendencies
• Real betting performance (Over & team total history)
Find teams for FREE —-> datagaffer.com
Updated Pace Rankings 📈📉
🇮🇹 Frosinone move into first place after their 4-4 draw with Atalanta, recording the highest Pace Rating we’ve seen this season at 0.98.
Pace measures game openness and combined attacking creation, not just one team’s output.
Our Pace Rating is contextual. It doesn’t rely solely on raw statistics; it also accounts for the league.
Pace measures game openness and combined attacking creation, not just one team’s output.
Our Pace Rating also accounts for league environment. Frosinone’s raw statistics may not match prime NEC’s, but producing those numbers in Serie A carries more weight.
The idea is that if Frosinone played in a naturally higher Pace league like the Eredivisie, their raw numbers would likely be even stronger.
🇫🇷 PSG face Lyon today, who rank in the 75th percentile or higher in our Offensive Efficiency Rating.
PSG have faced eight teams in that percentile this season. BTTS and over 2.5 goals hit in all eight.
The same combination has also hit in each of their last six H2H meetings.
✅8/8 vs high efficiency attacks
✅6/6 in recent H2Hs
Just an interesting trend we spotted. It could end today so be careful, nothing is guaranteed in gambling.
Find the ratings for free DataGaffer.com
This week saw two Getafe matches go over 3.5 goals and two PSV games go under 2.5.
This weekend in particular is just so weird. It’s like all the top attacking teams decided collectively to be shit. At least NEC is back though.
Today’s most valuable play for every match. Gold indicates a DG Elite Edge.
*Odds were recorded late Saturday when today’s slate was updated and may have changed since.
🍀🇩🇪 Augsburg vs Union Berlin has the largest Luck Rating gap we’ve ever recorded.
Augsburg: +1.66, ranked 8th of 449
Union Berlin: -1.71, ranked 449th
The closest matchups in our archive:
Dordrecht, 396th vs Almere City, 4th
Result: Dordrecht won 3-2
Monza, 433rd vs Cagliari, 12th
Result: Monza won 4-0
Interestingly, the lower rated team won both matches, but neither gap compares to today’s.
⛳️ Today’s top projected corners after 10,000 simulations
100 match slate today!😍
DataGaffer.com
The streak continues ✅
Every match in our archive with 7+ projected big chances has finished with over 3.5 goals.
I was a week off but the 🇳🇱 Eerste Divisie delivered with its positive regression signal.
Today averaged 4.56 goals
Beautiful positive regression signal in the 🇧🇪 Belgian Pro League last weekend.
After three straight matchweeks below its season average at 2.56, 2.89 and 2.33 goals per match, Matchweek 8 produced a season-high 3.67.
The 🇳🇱 Eerste Divisie could be next. Goals have dropped sharply over the past four matchweeks, bottoming out at just 2.50 last week.
The league is due, I don’t know what else to say. We should be seeing it return to its usual standards with a goal filled matchweek.
Regression matters. It cannot tell us exactly when the correction will come, but spotting these patterns can help uncover potential edges. Beating the books is difficult, so every edge matters.
🇳🇱 Go Ahead Eagles have seen BTTS in all nine league matches this season.
Their opponent, Telstar, has seen BTTS in just one of four away matches, averaging only 1.25 combined goals.
That is the complete opposite of Telstar at home, where their matches have been extremely open.
Something has to give. Can Go Ahead Eagles force Telstar to open up?
Al-Qadsiah vs Al-Hilal with a projected 7.3 big chances 👀
🇫🇷 PSG vs Barcelona 🇪🇸 has a projected 7.1 big chances after simulations
In our archive, only 5 other matches had 7+ projected big chances and all finished with 4+ goals.
Al Qadisiyah 3–1 Al Faisaly
Osnabruck 1–4 Bayern
Heracles 5–0 De Graafschap
Bayern 5–0 Bodo/Glimt
Volendam 3–2 VVV Venlo
Tiny sample, but an intriguing matchup. Two of the best attacking teams in world football, we could be witnessing the game of the season 👀
⚔️ NAC Breda vs Heracles
Looking strictly at raw statistics and ignoring league strength, 🇳🇱 Heracles rank 3rd in offensive performance among 449 teams.
Today they face 🇳🇱 NAC Breda, who rank third worst in defensive efficiency at 0.91.
Within the Eerste Divisie, NAC’s Home Rating ranks 12th out of 20, while Heracles rank first in Away Rating.
The numbers favor Heracles, but context matters. Both clubs were recently relegated from the Eredivisie and are among the stronger teams in this division.
This could be an attacking showcase from both sides.
Every team here conceded 2+ goals ✅
⬇️ 203 matches simulated this weekend
DataGaffer.com
DataGaffer retweeted
🇭🇷 Dinamo vs NEC 🇳🇱 simulation card and correct score matrix
BTTS hit in all of the top 5 scorelines
🇳🇱 Ajax vs Atalanta 🇮🇹 is another interesting playstyle matchup.
Atalanta rank fifth-worst in PPDA at 17.1. PPDA measures how many passes a team allows before making a defensive action, so a higher number indicates a less aggressive press.
Ajax have faced five teams with bottom-tier pressing ratings this season. Over 3.5 goals hit in all five, with Ajax scoring 3.60 goals per match.
Meanwhile, Atalanta have faced three teams with top-tier pressing ratings similar to Ajax. They lost all three and conceded 2+ goals in each:
Roma 2-1 Atalanta
Juventus 2-0 Atalanta
AC Milan 3-2 Atalanta
Clash of styles ⚔️
🏴 Celtic have one of the highest Pace ratings (98.4), while 🇪🇸 Celta Vigo rank fifth-lowest among 449 teams (1.1).
Celta have faced a similar Pace gap once this season, against Racing Santander:
Celta: 1.7
Racing: 93.7
Gap: 92.0
🇪🇸 Celta won 5-0.
An interesting matchup. Let’s see which style wins out.
