Host of YouTube channel Dave Lee on Investing, TSLA investor since 2012, building with AI. Shift or Noise - new series of 3-minute AI news videos with my take
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This year has been a trying year for my family. Wife has had to deal with surgery, chemo, and now radiation for stage 3 breast cancer.
To help my kids cope and thrive I’m having my kids hit a lot of balls everyday (table tennis and tennis). It’s part distraction but it’s also a way for them to grow in their coordination, reflexes, athleticism, and more. It keeps them positive, active and eager to learn and grow.
Focus on the ball and hit it. Hundreds of times everyday. Something good will come out of it. At least that’s my hope.
Possible...
1. Tesla reaches unsupervised FSD in next couple years.
2. Demand for Tesla vehicles goes bonkers.
3. Tesla can't produce enough cars to meet demand.
4. Tesla ramps production as fast as possible but takes years to meet demand as demand increases.
*This assumes no other unsupervised FSD cars are being sold by other OEMs.
Or also possible...
1. Tesla FSD gets better and better, this drives more demand for Tesla's vehicles. (assuming Tesla's FSD is best compared to competition)
2. Tesla gradually increases production to meet demand.
3. "Unsupervised FSD" isn't a specific date but happens gradually over a few years. Still increasing demand and Tesla increasing production to meet demand.
Either situation is bullish to Tesla's financials as their operating margins will likely surprise to the upside.
Of course there are other scenarios, but here's just a few I've laid out.
I'll leave the other scenarios for others to lay out and defend. I personally don't see other companies reaching unsupervised FSD around the same time or even shortly after Tesla like some think. I think it takes a long time for others to catch up. Unsupervised FSD is more complicated to solve than most think.
Just reflecting on Tesla's Q3 earnings call this morning a bit and I'm glad to hear Elon mentioning they're aiming for 5 million vehicles/yr by 2030.
Question though is the current lineup enough to get to 5 million vehicles, assuming unsupervised FSD is reached by then and driving demand? Or does Tesla need (or should have) new vehicles (ie., cars w/o steering wheels besides Cybercab)?
Overall I think the most bullish signal is FSD take-rate is increasing and is driving more sales. This should keep on increasing as FSD heads toward unsupervised FSD. At a certain point it's possible/likely that demand from unsupervised FSD causes a huge demand spike like no other for Tesla vehicles. This drives sales, increases margins, and makes the overall business much more attractive to investors.
Wow, Kimi K3.1 just shot up to become the top open source AI model. Open source gaining momentum.
I'm a bit hesitant on company-reported evals, but we'll see how this model holds up in real world usage.
Introducing Kimi K3.1 Pro: our most capable 3T-class open-weight model.
🔹 1M-token context, 2.8T total / 104B active params (MoE), Multimodal.
🔹 Full-project coding: games in Unreal, Unity & Godot.
🔹 Excels at parametric 3D modeling in Blender & CAD.
🔹 More reliable at finance work: Accurate modeling with hallucination down by 65%.
🔹 Matching the strongest proprietary models across coding, agentic and knowledge benchmarks.
Kimi K3.1 Pro and K3.1 Pro Highspeed (2–3× faster) are now live on Kimi.ai, Kimi Work, Kimi Code, and the Kimi API.
Open weights by Nov 4, 2026.
🔗 API: platform.kimi.ai
🔗 Tech blog: kimi.ai/blog/kimi-k3-1-pro
Here's a short 3-minute explainer video with my take for those wanting more info on Kimi K3.1.
Also at: youtu.be/SCBIHQrAPFE
Watch/follow on YT:
youtu.be/wVECRzIa62o
This is episode one! On a new channel. I’m calling it “Shift or Noise”.
p.s, first 2/3 of the video is an AI voice narrating, last 1/3 is my real voice (not a cloned voice).
AI is moving so fast and almost every day there's significant news, but often I think it's hard for people to not just keep up but to really understand if the latest news is important or not, and why.
So here's an attempt at trying to distill a significant AI news into something simple and clear, while answering the question "is this a big deal or not, and why?".
I'll try making several of these videos and then re-assess to see if they're helpful.
The future is getting weird. Had a discussion with @farzyness where I was critical of him using his own cloned voice in videos. Afterward he uses Grok @bot to make a video about it. And his cloned voice isn't bad? Or is it? I'm torn. What do you think?
I had a very interesting off-line discussion with Dave Lee @davelee on my use of an AI voice.
I had my Grok @bot video process make a video on it.
If you want to make videos like these of your own, use my Video Creator bot: x.ai/bot/RPtsHesZPgAlwMOZAX8…
Merge to win.
Elon Musk today on a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla:
"Both Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees at the request of shareholders. Because I'm a conflicted party I can't be in on these discussions. I don't think we should assume that a merger is a certainty. Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes. But at the end of the day, shareholders have to be supportive of this. The special committees have not reached an agreement on any transaction, and it doesn't mean they will, but there is a lot of be gained from cooperating on SI, chip design, robots, mass or orbit, connectivity. I think it would be a good idea."
I recorded a podcast a few days ago on the drive to the Roadster event with @emmetpeppers . We talked about possible Tesla/SpaceX merger, Cybercab, and Tesla’s lineup.
“The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power and mass to space.”
A big reason why SpaceX and Tesla ought to merge. Super intelligence and robots might seem separate now but over time they will combine and become super intelligent robots. Optimus needs the best super intelligence. Tesla + SpaceX will have the best chance at winning at super intelligence and super intelligent robots.
Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value.
The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power and mass to space.
And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow.
But Roadster is super cool, so we’re doing it anyway.
Saw the Roadster demo last night and on drive back to Austin recorded a podcast with @emmetpeppers . We talk about our impressions on the Roadster, possible SpaceX merger, Optimus and where AI is headed.