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San Francisco, CA, USA
Joined October 2007
Imagine you have been looking at the Earth from space, for millions and millions of years. It always looks the same. All of a sudden it lights up, in a matter of decades. The blink of an eye. Could you have predicted that? Of course not. Humans love to predict things. People imagined insane urban landscapes when cars started becoming popular (look at the Western US and its unwalkable cities), or a dystopic life in virtual reality when the internet was invented. Look up the word "teledildonics." Now we live in one of the most unpredictable periods ever. We have a weird new technology, and the predictions are all over the place. It's pointless to predict whether AI is going to replace job X or job Y, whether it will kill us all (it's increasingly looking like it won't), whether jobs will disappear, or whether it will cure cancer. We're just going to have to ride it and see what happens. When an expert predicts with arrogant certainty that "in 10 years AI will..." just stop reading. Rolling your eyes is optional.
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My agents found a RCE in the US Constitution, unnoticed by legislators for 237 years. I'll release the details tomorrow morning.
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The other day at the airport I observed gate agents and they seemed to be having fun. So I made myself a gate agent simulator. I just worked a shift. Some of these people are on their way to Lisbon and I'm sure at least one is being waterboarded.
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I say the best defense is a good offense. Last company standing wins.
SITUATION DETECTED: CloudFlare CEO Matthew Prince says he is aware of additional severe vulnerabilities in other pieces of critical software, and said “I think we’re going to have a couple years where every single week it’s going to feel like the sky is falling,” per Reuters.
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I guess I'll go into hibernation until 2047. Can someone water my plants until then?
AI is the most profound technology I’ve seen, both in its ability to help people and to disrupt their lives. I’m optimistic about the good it can do, but we need to take its risks seriously. b-gat.es/4zLk2T3
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This is partly why IPOs are now delayed until VCs have extracted as much value as possible from the growth stage, and good luck retail investors.
Doug Leone on the mistake every VC makes: Selling their winners too early. “We owned 20% of Nvidia and sold. We were the first investor in Apple and sold. We owned 10% of Google and sold.” “If we hadn’t sold Google that would be half a trillion dollars.” “We owned a quarter of Cisco and sold.” ($411 billion market cap) “We had big ownership in very big companies.” “The great companies compounded 20+ years after the IPO. If you had a little sniffer that this thing has essentially an unbounded market for many years, you should never sell a share.” “You can make way more money holding those. If you're compounding a $5 billion gain that can turn into a $50 billion gain.”
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Ok, who is inventing Ozempic for AI-generated code?
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Funny how lots of poorer places manage to have free healthcare for kids (and everyone else) without the tech industry. You are the most inefficient administration in the world.
Looks like billionaires will stay and figure out a way to pay the tax. If we pass Prop 40, poor California kids can have healthcare. Gavin, can you and Sergey Brin stop with your fear-mongering of a billionaire exodus?
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I predict that once Anthropic and OpenAI have gone public, and the Series W investors have cashed out, we're going to see a significant slowdown in model progress, as in iPhone 17 -> 18. We will enter the Gmail era of AI.
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I can't wait for this event. I'll be the Simon Cowell of the panel.
El futuro está a la vuelta de la esquina. Este miércoles 28 suma tu superpoder y empezá a construir la integración de las finanzas con la IA en el Buidathon de Belo Agentic Banking. Anotate acá: agentic.belo.app/hackaton
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Before serving the steaks, we ran a quick smoke test to ensure the grill was functioning as expected and the meat passed basic doneness checks.
the problem with proactive ai is that sometimes it is proactively insane
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Humanity is a superorganism that hates scarcity. We have been fighting it since the dawn of times and we're kicking its ass. But as individuals who evolved, we are very confused when something that used to be scarce is now abundant. Food is the prime example of this, but there are others. So far, AI has been helping us create an abundance of things that don't matter that much. Entertainment and apps that nobody needs, for one. But even if we manage to defeat scarcity completely, that's not a utopia. We will be like hammers without nails. Either we invent a lot of artificial scarcity, or we modify our nature.
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Do you think companies are going to take it sitting down? Let me tell you a story. Apps hate churn, and they will do everything legal (in their jurisdiction) to charge you indefinitely. Case in point: my 82-year old mother had a bunch of odd app store subcriptions. Korean dramas and the like, free first week and then pay. She deleted them, thinking that was it. Little did she know she was still being charged. "Leave it to me, mother. I'll unleash the agentic power of my AI agent to agentically unsubscribe." The agent: "... and it turns out the maker of this other app is located in Krakistan. They don't have a phone number but I found their office in Krakabad. We could try to get someone to show up in person. However, at this point I think it's easier to just cancel the credit card."
Replying to @dbasch
“Won't really benefit anyone” seems too strong. An agent helping someone cancel an unwanted subscription could still save them money even if the company fights to preserve that friction.
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The smoking gun. My sources tell me this is how it happened.
This is 100% what happened
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What happened with food is now happening with software: code obesity. Eat less, code less.
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In Soviet Russia, Claude prompts you.
We’re opening a research preview of Claude Duet, a new app where Claude works as a proactive agent. It comes to you with what needs your attention, completes tasks you ask of it, keeps working when you step away, and checks with you before it acts on your behalf.
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I am addicted to my silly Spanish clone of the New Yorker's Shuffalo. I play it every day. Y si hablás castellano en forma nativa o como segunda lengua, te lo recomiendo. revuelo.top/
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Everyone is so high on how fast they can code, they fail to realize how much of a liability that is. If you create 100k loc with a couple prompts, you also insert a ton of bugs and whimsy architectural choices. "Click here for inifinite technical debt."
Given the acceleration Anthropic is reporting in coding, it is amazing that you still cannot change your email address in Claude and the official advice is that if you need to change your email the only way to do that is delete your account.
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I always found it annoying that Aconcagua is 33 meters short of 7000. If this post reaches 6967 likes, I will build a 34m rock wall at the top. It will be at least 5.12, so summiting Aconcagua will be challenging.
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Doing everything with agents seems like a good idea at first. But the world is adversarial. Companies rely on friction and human irrationality to profit from us. It is obvious that they are going to defend themselves. So it seems like the agentic layer will be an arms race that won't really benefit anyone.
notice.. > Delta is blocking AI agents from booking flights > JPMorgan Chase and Charles Schwab block agents from accessing accounts > Yelp requires paid data licensing for agents > Amazon has blocked Grok bot and other shopping agents. the internet is starting to block AI agents that were supposed to do everything for us
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