Decentrader

$BTC - #BTC 🌕︎◁〇▷ 🌑🜂◉▢ Update On Bitcoin Cycles Theory. The Start - The First Stage - Halving - Ending? New Start ? - The Second Stage? - Super Cycle? No ending? - Keeps going . Detailed Chart - Prediction - Top - Bottom . tradingview.com/x/Zjh0fDr7/ tradingview.com/chart/1HllfU… Last Public Video . Gift for Christmas. youtube.com/live/C4YlYHoa55s #decentrader #bitcointop #bitcoinbottom #bitcoincycle #bitcoinhalving #bitcoin

$BTC Quick BTC positioning check 👀 How much of the capital you’re willing to put into Bitcoin is ALREADY deployed? If BTC drops hard from here, how much dry powder do you actually have left to buy lower? 🟢 0–25% deployed — mostly cash 🟡 25–50% deployed — plenty of ammo 🟠 50–75% deployed — limited ammo 🔴 75–100% deployed — basically all in Be honest. 👀 I want to see how much “buy the dip” money is actually left out there. 😂

My final public livestream before 2027. ALPHA vs. BULLS & BEARS Bitcoin analysis, key levels, macro, liquidity—and the scenarios nobody wants to hear. No hopium. No doomposting. Just charts, probabilities, and enough volatility to offend both sides. youtube.com/live/BxKyI8OgdNg

It seems that some crypto gurus admitted defeat today because “the bottom was not in,” while at the same time, other crypto gurus opened the champagne because they were “right” about calling the bottom. I’m not Filb, Bob, Benji, or any of the others. Few people know me. I am Alpha. I don’t care about being right or wrong, and I don’t care about protecting my image. But we will go lower. The bullish crypto gurus who failed to call the top, but are celebrating being right about the bottom now, are going to be out of the crypto space this cycle. And the people who admitted defeat too soon are going to cry. We will see another low, and when it happens, they’ll call it a “black swan” and say it doesn’t count. They have an image to protect. Price was pushed higher by futures longs, while spot volume is dead. The big boys will sell into retail, and when those longs start closing... another 10/10. Good luck with the wall.

bitcoin:native Decentrader View And now, my overall view . A little bit long to read . There are definitely signs that the bottom may already be in, but if that is the case, it would be an earlier bottom than what we’ve seen in previous cycles. We could still revisit the lows, or at least the $63K–$65K area, especially if BTC loses $75K. What I see right now is a lot of FOMO, and I think most dips will continue to be bought very quickly. That can also be a sign that a bottom is forming. What could confirm or invalidate the bottom scenario from here is mainly inflation and Fed policy. If we get bad macro news and BTC still holds $75K, that would be extremely bullish. If we dump toward $65K, I still wouldn’t automatically call that bearish. A retest of that area can still fit within a bottoming process. What worries me more is that too many people may already be right about the bottom, and the bottom may have formed too early. You can see some of this in open interest. A large number of longs are concentrated around the $63K–$65K area, with another major cluster around $73K–$75K. That means there is a lot of liquidity sitting around those levels, and I would not be surprised if the market revisits one or both of those zones over the next 1–3 months. A first major confirmation that the bottom is already in would probably be a weekly close above $83K–$85K, followed by continuation toward $90K+. If that happens, it becomes much harder to argue that the cycle bottom is still ahead of us. But for that to happen this year, I still think the macro environment needs to cooperate. Even for me, it is not easy to say with confidence whether the bottom is already in or whether BTC still has another leg lower. At this point, there is not much left for me to do other than wait through September–October and see how the structure develops. Based on my own framework and the indicators I use to track cycle bottoms, I still believe the final bottom is probably not in yet. The chart now shows my official levels where I plan to deploy my cash into spot if BTC moves lower. For now: patience. The next 1–3 months should tell us a lot.

bitcoin:native NUPL Cycle View Historically, BTC cycle bottoms tend to come after NUPL enters the capitulation zone. Right now, we’ve only briefly tested capitulation, and roughly 80%+ of holders are still sitting relatively comfortably on their BTC bags. That makes a confirmed cycle bottom here less convincing. Ideally, I’d expect BTC to test the capitulation zone at least once or twice more, or spend more time there, before calling a durable macro bottom. So based on NUPL alone: Bottom already in = possible, but unlikely. A deeper/final bottom later in Q4 still looks more probable.

bitcoin:native Cycle View Halving — Where Could the Bottom Be? One of the best ways to track a potential cycle bottom is the mid-cycle point between halvings. Historically, BTC has tended to bottom roughly 4–8 months after the mid-cycle. This cycle, the midpoint was around April–May 2026: +4 months: late August +6 months: late October +8 months: late December So based purely on halving-cycle timing, there are three realistic possibilities: 1. The bottom may already be in. 2. A final bottom forms around October. 3. The cycle extends and bottoms in December. My current view: October–December remains the most interesting window, unless macro conditions push the cycle into early 2027. The key is not just the exact low — it’s when BTC starts refusing to make new lows despite bad news and begins building higher lows.

bitcoin:native Cycle View BTC still looks like it may be in a late-bear / bottoming phase rather than the start of a fresh major bear leg. My base case: Sep–Oct: volatility / possible retest of lows Nov–Dec 2026: highest probability window for the final cycle bottom Q1 2027: more likely for base-building and higher lows, unless macro deteriorates further A Q1 2027 bottom becomes more likely only if we get a real macro shock: more Fed hikes, 30Y yields pushing >5.35–5.50%, oil staying >$100, and labor/credit conditions deteriorating. The key signal won’t be just price. I’d watch for BTC to stop making new lows on bad news, clear leverage, reclaim major moving averages, and start forming a weekly higher-low / higher-high structure. My current bias: late Q4 2026 bottom > Q1 2027 bottom.

bitcoin:native Yesterday move liquidated more than 1 BIL and also 2 BIL in OI was added to bitcoin. The move is similar to Mar 5 when bitcoin moved from 64k to 72k and had same OI added . We got a retrace back to 65k . I dont say it will happen again but its similar. For a 8% move while spot volume was low and only IBIT had 1600 BTC inflow the move was 80% from shorts closing and shorts liquidated with some help from new longs. The market is more loaded in 24h than it was in one full month.

bitcoin:native Today should be interesting. Yesterday BTC moved from $65K to $70K+ as macro conditions flipped strongly in its favor. Today, the market seems to be testing whether that move was real continuation or mostly a massive short squeeze: • DXY trying to recover • Gold pulling back • Nasdaq pre-market basically flat • US10Y back near 4.70% • US30Y back near 5.26% • Oil pushing higher again • Coinbase Premium getting more negative even as BTC pushed from $69K → $72K BTC is also sitting right around the Alpha Level today, after trading above it yesterday. This isn't bearish yet. It's caution. If macro conditions stay neutral or improve, BTC clearly looks like it wants higher — there's a lot of pent-up momentum. But if yields + DXY keep recovering and equities fail to confirm, yesterday may prove to have been mostly shorts getting rekt, followed by a retrace. Today and tomorrow should tell us whether yesterday was the start of something — or just a squeeze. And lets not forget about all CT calling "Bottom was in" . When was the last time every one was long and right and all hyped/right about the bottom?

The same people who told you $BTC was going to $180K at the top are now telling you $60K is the bottom. What could possibly go wrong? 😂

$BTC . 58k or 70k ?

$BTC A lot of people will probably say inverse h&s , but seems more lile a descending channel.

Saylor @MicroStrategy sold $BTC again this week.

$BTC Probably the perfect time for everyone to say the bottom is in and for all the people you follow to start posting long ideas. And since every Monday has been a pump for the past few months... what could possibly go wrong? No more bearish posts. No more war. No more FUD. The perfect time for a dump. 😅 #btc #crypto