Bitcoin finally tapped the 70s (79k) in this slow grind lower. When I said the local high was probably in at 87.4k and we would come down to 75k no one believed me. Question now is how much lower. Will my target get tested, or is this enough? Sentiment metrics are still neutral.

A distinction I think a lot of people miss is that when I say we are mid-cycle, I'm not directly referring to Bitcoin, I'm referring to the business cycle. Bitcoin's own cycle structure can be interpreted in a number of ways, a short cycle can be a left translated 4 year cycle for example, but in terms of what is driving it, I think the heating of the business cycle is why the low was shallow and a little shorter. Crypto more broadly is perhaps at the start of a new cycle, having been in a 5 year downtrend due to challenging macro conditions. Where all the analysis converges and agrees is that are heading into an uptrend and I think it will be a broad crypto bull market, but whatever happens, we need to be careful of allowing terminology to determine what camp we sit in, and instead focus on real signals like the business cycle, liquidity and capital rotation.

So it was a mid-cycle correction.

A picture is worth a thousand words. #bitcoin

So far Bitcoin is holding a pretty standard breakout from resistance, and retesting that as support, 82/83k. Marginally below at time of writing (81.6), but there's no point jumping the gun. We need to see a weekly close or two before anything is for sure. Below support is a wave 2 into the 70s, whereas above is still the latter stages of wave 1, above 90k. 60k lows through the year were the main opportunity, but its still early doors. Keep it simple, have a plan, shut out the noise, relax, touch grass and be patient.

This post assumes Altcoin cycles mirror Bitcoin cycles and that they should therefore be measured the same way, but this isn't the case. It works only when considering the most recent Bitcoin ATH compared to 2021, but if you look at 2021 vs 2017, many altcoins made a new ATH. The most recent 'cycle' for altcoins was a B wave in a longer structural bear cycle for the broader crypto market, where the majority set a lower high before continuing towards their eventual capitulation. This is the main reason for the lack of a euphoric 'cycle' high last year, and it is evident in many charts. It relates more closely to macro than it does to Bitcoin, but is also finally coming to an end.

Early 2023 vibes, or is it something else? Everyone talking about rates; Bitcoin up significantly off the lows into a macro higher high, that eventually proved not to be the local high people thought it was; half of the market still in disbelief... But something is very different. The setup in 2026 is positioned more like 2012, 2016 and 2020 than it is like the 2015, 2019 or 2023 early cycle years, and you can see that today in Altcoins.

DN25 | A Rising Tide | Macro heats up, the 4 year cycle is on notice, and the whole crypto market begins to rise. newsletter.decodejar.com/p/d…

DN22 | Bitcoin Breakout | With key levels reclaimed, the question turns from where the low is to what comes next, and where that leaves the cycle from here. newsletter.decodejar.com/p/d…

I had laid out two targets where I would be confident enough to call the bottom in on Bitcoin. First was the reclaim of 67k, and second was a break of 74k. Both taken out, huge squeeze, and I think I'm on the right side of the betting odds.

Bottom is in

For much of the crypto market, Oct 2025 was the start of the second leg down in a bear market that started in Oct 2021. A five year long two legged decline with a disappointing bull trend in between. That decline is finally approaching its end.

Fortune favours the patient.

This is my argument for why there was no euphoric top and no over-extension. It is the reason crypto has been getting crushed for years, but it is also why that environment is coming to an end very soon. If we observe the first three Bitcoin cycles on the chart, tracking the four-year cycle in orange and the business cycle in blue, a clear pattern emerges. When these are moving in the same direction, specifically when they are both expanding, Bitcoin's most parabolic phases occur. There are no exceptions. Both cycles are real, and when the two forces align, the amplitude increases, much like waves in the sea combining to form a massive swell. This is constructive interference, and we grew used to that. Since 2023, these cycles have been fundamentally out of sync. I call this cycle dissonance. Not only were they out of sync, but the business cycle has been practically non-existent. The result? A Bitcoin cycle that was lacklustre, leaving the majority of the broader market unable to recover. But the dynamic is about to change. Soon, the four-year cycle will start over, and the business cycle is already positioned to meet it. Constructive interference returns, bringing that massive swell. For how long is anyone's guess, and I believe it does not matter anyway. What matters is the impulse in the medium to long term, once this current bottom resolves.

Some Wyckoff Accumulation ideas I drew out two weeks ago. Red line Schematic 1, my bias, Blue line, Schematic 2, less common, but possible.

I've been quiet so I want to write a few thoughts out and just kinda lay out how I've been thinking about the market over the last six months. Back in Feb, I was bullish crypto and thought there was still a meaningfully good chance things could reverse higher, mid-cycle, etc. There was data to back it all up, and while sentiment was fearful, expectations were still leaning bullish. A lot of people were looking for that final squeeze of liquidity, dominance to roll over, rotation from Gold and stocks. It was crypto's turn right? But it didn't play out. Bitcoin pumped to 82.8k, altcoins did well too, but structurally there was nothing impulsive in the price action off the lows. That's always a red flag for me, and it's important. The whole move was given back, and with Bitcoin at 57.8k everyone was calling the bottom again, but again, no impulsive price action off the lows, a mechanical bounce that failed at 66.7k resistance. Since then, Bitcoin has been flirting with the 200 week sma and the timeline has become majority bullish. There's no doubt the Bitcoin chart has improved a lot. Bullish divergences on multiple timeframes and a potential inverse head and shoulders, though on my read the right shoulder still needs building, most likely on a dip back to 60k, before a break of 66.7k unlocks anything meaningful. It's not unreasonable to think the bottom is in, but it's not certain. Issues that continue to give me pause are, again, the total lack of any impulsive price action off the lows, and a precarious stock market heading into a seasonally weak August and September. Macro still looks good. Bottom is not confirmed. New lows still a possibility.

I think Bitcoin entered Wyckoff accumulation at the Feb 60k low, ST in phase B at the 59k June low, so yep it's time to accumulate. Time in the market, not time the market.