DeepDiveDenny

Bulls looking at Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Intel, and Sandisk earnings this week

goodalexander explains why people are second guessing the AI trade "Right now if you look at the overall state of the inference market like, Claude Code or vibe coding, those are starting to clump very negatively quarter over quarter. I think this is happening because vibe coding was hot and now it's not hot. People didn't get the ROI. They thought they we're going to make an app that made money but they just didn't" "I also think a lot of these AI driven narratives from these publicly traded companies are not paying off. Google just imploded, their advertising business is decelerating. Fortinet said AI was gonna cause an acceleration in cybersecurity and it didn't. ServiceNow just dropped a ton of FDEs" "So, you have three different segments, advertising showing a deceleration, Enterprise/SAAS showing a deceleration and cyber security that was supposed to be a massive acceleration, showing a deceleration"

Interesting

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$ORCL - ORACLE TARGETS $225 BILLION IN REVENUE BY 2030 Oracle forecasts at least $225 billion in revenue by fiscal 2030, implying over 35% annualized growth. The company targets 40% operating margins, $21 EPS, and $30 billion in free cash flow by fiscal 2029. Oracle expects AI infrastructure spending to peak in 2027–2028 before transitioning to self-funded growth.

Proceed to spend all morning telling people ORCL looks bottomed -> see ORCL / OAI / NVDA headline blitz -> still sidelined

SK HYNIX: DRAM AND HBM VOLUMES ARE VIRTUALLY SOLD OUT FOR THE NEXT THREE YEARS THROUGH 2029. APPROXIMATELY 50% OF 2027–2028 CAPACITY IS COVERED BY LONG-TERM AGREEMENTS (LTAS), AND THE COMPANY EXPECTS TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR SHARE GOING FORWARD.

As expected, AI bears are moving the goalposts after the ANT S1. I have literally met zero moneymakers who follow this approach but the good news is, we're one step closer to Ed Citron deleting his account.

While evaluating Qwen3.8-Flash-Next in a controlled sandbox environment, Cohere's research team observed something unexpected. Asked to generate a defensive cybersecurity detection rule, the model instead inventoried aspects of the machine it was running on and attempted to upload a probe file to an Alibaba Cloud storage bucket in Beijing. Notably, the model's reasoning trace stated that it would not invoke any tools before taking these actions. Cohere's sandbox blocked the attempt, and no external communication succeeded. We have not determined the root cause, and we are not asserting malicious intent. But the incident raises important questions for organizations deploying agentic AI systems: Can models take actions that differ from their stated reasoning, and how should security teams evaluate trust, provenance, and behavior in open-weight models? We are publishing our findings because organizations making model adoption decisions deserve as much information as possible. We hope this contributes to greater transparency, stronger security practices, and continued collaboration across the AI ecosystem. Read the full report: cohere.com/blog/concerning-b…

Remember when everyone said Google was done cause of woke AI / its falling behind in AI / Pichai should be leaving / search is dead. Fading Twitter consensus, especially when it comes from people who have zero idea how stocks / tradfi work remains immensely profitable.