dhoor retweeted
Whenever I feel demotivated i rewatch this...
Elon Musk in a living room in 2008, 12 days from bankruptcy, pitching a $109,000 car to people...
dhoor retweeted
I regret to inform you that nobody cares about your potential. Potential is nothing without execution. When you're young, everyone cares about your potential. You get used to focusing on it. But as you get older, no one cares about your potential. Just your delivery against it.
Monitoring.
When should you worry about gold?
China has a deep vested interest in gold and will have serious inquiry into its potential. If Chinas monetary policy shifts away from gold verbally or there is signs they decide to stop accumulating id be concerned
Until then it goes in the bucket of fud
An by fud I mean just that every asset has a potential argument on why it will fail - it’s like calling for end of oil 50 yrs ago it may or may not happen and even if it does you can be far too early
Investing is within in our lifetime - you have to right size time horizons. It’s not enough to be right alone
Short gold??
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
dhoor retweeted
Nomad Letters: The Full Collection of the Nomad Investment Partnership Letters to Partners, 2001–2014, now available for preorder: press.stripe.com/nomad-lette…
i first read the Nomad letters when i was 17, and they changed my life. this is an embarrassing admission to make about a collection of hedge fund letters that primarily circulated as a stolen pdf in value-investor circles, and have now become enough of a meme to enjoy a second life of their own. but on the occasion of their republication in beautiful form by Tammy and the team at Stripe Press, i thought it was worth reflecting briefly on the impact these letters had on me.
Sleep and Zakaria’s fundamental truth (truke?) is often, and incorrectly, remembered as “scale matters.” everyone knew this when Sleep was writing.
the real insight was that scale is most powerful when its benefits are surrendered directly to the consumer.
the thing i remember most from Sleep is his wonderfully strange “robustness ratio,” which measured the amount the customer saved against the value retained by shareholders. value escaping the firm to the consumer, rather than being captured by it, was the metric of a great business. a great business is a lossy one.
this places Sleep in an interesting position opposite the other greatest anglo-investor of his generation, Chris Hohn. Nomad and TCI look similar from a distance: concentrated portfolios, long holding periods, indifference to benchmarks and, eventually, the conversion of their private fortunes into large philanthropic efforts.
they differ not merely in the fact that Hohn decided to continue (and even convert to Hinduism so that he could manage his portfolio in the next life, as reported in the FT), but in that their ideal businesses are exact mirror images. Hohn loves an irreversible asset that can extract a tax on its customer. in Hohn’s world, if a company possesses pricing power, it should, and must, exercise it.
rather Sleep’s ideal company possesses pricing power and repeatedly and consciously declines to use it.
the emergence and now total dominance of the labs makes this distinction newly urgent and would, on its own, be occasion enough to republish the work, quite apart from how beautiful and important the letters are.
our instinctive response to a discontinuity in technology is to invest at the frontier. Sleep’s letters are at least some reason for caution. technical leadership can be copied or simply made irrelevant by the next advance, and capital floods towards visible scarcity just before technology eviscerates that very same scarcity.
god knows Sleep was never hostile to technology. he made more money on Amazon than almost anyone else. but, at least in my reading, he was skeptical of technical novelty as a moat in its own right.
what mattered to him was whether that technological step had been converted into a self reinforcing relationship in which the customer privatized the gain.
in Nick’s frame, and he's welcome to correct me (although my sense is requiring him to lift a hand off of the wheel of a f450 in the hills of northumberland at this point would be a step too far) the enduring AI business may therefore be the one that passes declining costs on most aggressively, not one that preserves scarcity, bombs its own customers margins and tries to eat as much of the application layer as possible.
i find it increasingly useful to use the pair trade between totemic-hohn, and totemic-sleep actions as a frame in which to view the actions of the frontier. my guess is, in the fullness of time, or at the very least in this life (hohn is welcome to prove me wrong in the next), that Sleep might have won this bout.
very glad to see these letters in print.
dhoor retweeted
Pedigree is overrated. Grit isn't.
Bloomberg on who he'd hire: "the person whose father never was there, whose mother was in a drug treatment program. And he had to go and work three shifts at McDonald's to take care of his siblings."
"No matter how bad things are — looks on the bright side, takes the bull by the horns, puts in the sweat capital. That's where the results are."
dhoor retweeted
"The best way to think about investments is to be in a room with no one else and just think." Buffett
tilsonfunds.com/BuffettUofFl…
dhoor retweeted
New Article
Buffett started as a short-term cigar butt stock trader. He then started taking control of companies. He then realized it’s better to take control of companies of higher quality, so he doesn’t have to fix or sell them. The point is he kept evolving, pushing out his circle of competence. If he stayed a cigar butt investor, he would have become a relic of the past by age 40 instead of a legend.
microcapclub.com/keep-evolvi…
dhoor retweeted
Li Lu at Columbia Business School's 36th Graham & Dodd event (Oct 5) 🎧
Value investing's six principles, AI as a tool not a god, a market split between a few hot names and many neglected ones, and compounding in markets and in life.
Full talk: youtu.be/FwDKCNfHHtY ❄️
dhoor retweeted
Peter Lynch
“Gestioné 15 mil millones de dólares en Fidelity Magellan y la lección más importante que puedo darles es esta: el precio que pagan es lo único que determina si ganan o pierden dinero con el tiempo. Todo lo demás es ruido.
He visto a gente comprar las empresas más grandes del mundo (Coca-Cola, Disney, Gillette) a 50, 60, 70 veces sus ganancias porque estaban convencidos de que el crecimiento nunca terminaría. Cuando el crecimiento se desaceleró, incluso un poco, las acciones se arruinaron. La calidad no las salvó. El precio las mató.
También he comprado empresas que eran un desastre (empresas que perdían dinero, empresas en sectores en decadencia, empresas que nadie quería) y gané 10 o 20 veces mi dinero porque pagué tan poco que la única dirección era hacia arriba. El margen de seguridad estaba en el precio, no en la historia
No existe una buena acción a ningún precio. Solo existe un buen precio para una acción. Si pagas demasiado, pierdes. Si pagas lo suficiente, puedes equivocarte en casi todo y aun así ganar.
Multipliqué mi dinero por 29 en La Quinta Inns, una empresa de la que nadie había oído hablar. Multipliqué mi dinero por 20 en Philip Morris cuando era la acción más odiada de Estados Unidos. No necesitaba una bola de cristal. Necesitaba un precio bajo.Eso ha sido cierto desde 1920 y será cierto en 2120. El precio que pagas es el único margen de seguridad que tendrás.”
























