Tech. Pro-analog audio. https://teapaw.org/t.co/RlRNhNrZgF
NYC
Joined October 2007
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drfindley retweeted
I'm working on the iPhone Duo more and more every day.
So, I've started collecting some of my favorite productivity apps for the Duo.
There are some gems in here: macstories.net/roundups/my-f…
drfindley retweeted
Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data.
Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen.
Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However:
- credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years.
- more people are paying rent via credit card.
- average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago
- class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month.
- starting to see these renters move down a tier
Class B:
- simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous.
- fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50%
- considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets.
Class C:
- looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up
- more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades
- tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it
- wage growth has not kept up
Lenders:
- some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff.
- a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses.
- number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall.
- data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over.
I asked “how do you think this ends?”
“Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”
drfindley retweeted
1. Never stop exercising or learning.
2.Accept compromise to begin relationships.
3. Manifest the power of compounding.
4. Never gamble.
5. Have kids and be a good parent
6. If it flies or floats, rent it.
7. Buy half the house you can afford.
8. Art in the eye of the beholder is cheap.
9. Be thankful for and to all.
10. Be charitable.
drfindley retweeted
what in the f
this is actually wild and has actually blown my mind
Lost my phone at the office and spent 30 minutes turning the place over. Find My was disabled by MDM.
Out of ideas, I asked Claude how I could find it. It suggested tracking the Bluetooth signal strength, then wrote me a meter in about a minute.
I walked around watching the number climb. Found it.
Apparently you can just make the tool you need now.
Code: github.com/ben-z/findphone
drfindley retweeted
“Fable is a 'wise owl' who is very thoughtful and very well spoken, GPT-5.6-Sol is like a rottweiler who will grab the problem by the throat and not let go until it is done.”
Best explanation I’ve heard so far.
My view of: Fable 5 vs GPT-5.6-Sol. They are not easy models to compare, these are my vibes - take them as you will.
My overall feel is that Fable is a 'wise owl' who is very thoughtful and very well spoken, GPT-5.6-Sol is like a rottweiler who will grab the problem by the throat and not let go until it is done.
In other words, Fable, is a fundamentally smarter model - even at low reasoning it can be very insightful and writes in a clear compelling way. GPT-5.6-Sol on the other hand is extremely diligent, I can give it a list of 8 things to do and you will be sure that they will be done.
Fable feels more arrogant to me, I was both to get it to build a new benchmark for me - 5.6 worked between 6 hours and 2 days (I tried several times) and it came up with very thoroughly tested, working benchmark. Fable came back within 40 minutes (twice) and the benchmark sounded smart, but was ultimately was 'vibe' based slop and since it was Fable's vibes that was doing the judging, it decided that it was good to go (it kept giving Fable 100% score btw).
Some thoughts by category:
UI & App building: Fable will still craft a better UI from scratch, the flow of the app would probably be a bit nicer. But I find that Fable often misses quite key things, which GPT-5.6-Sol doesn't. GPT's Frontend skills are big jump vs previous GPT models, but still not as great overall.
Writing: Fable is better hands down, Sol feels quite difficult to align to what I want to say or explain things to me simply. Though I think the 'Pro' model writes clearer.
Robustness & Reliability: This is where I think GPT-5.6-Sol wins for me hands down. Fable seems to do things of high quality, but I can never relax with it, it always misses something. With 5.6 this just almost never happens.
Other things where I liked GPT-5.6-Sol, but can't compare to Fable directly.
- Video editing is actually working now, it is not completely perfect, but with the right skill/guidance you can just give it 1h footage and it can give you a 5 min highlight clip no problem
- Computer use - getting really rather good, very usable
- Sub agents - it is very fluent at managing sub-agents and speaking to different threads, can help with some new workflows
- Adhering to existing code patterns - I love this, even without asking it would implement something in a way that aligns with you app - major problem for slop generation
- Research - I think it is getting quite a bit better, it still has some bad patterns (e.g being too tactical), but it feels like it is more steerable to be a good researcher
- Multi-day runs - the /goal feature is pretty insane with 5.6-Sol, you can run it for days if you wanted to and it does work. Useful to have another thread or /side to check up on it, but I have some great results with it
- Token efficiency - it is so much more token efficient and faster than 5.5, in reality it is now much faster than Fable too
On the downside, you can feel that Fable is naturally smarter, and I did have some baffling moments with 5.6 when I was getting it to make a fairly simple change in 8 turns - it seemed to get stuck in a dumb stream that was hard to get out of. So it is not AGI, don't get too carried away by the hype.
I have some phenomenal examples that I'm honestly blown away by that I'll share, but as a side anecdote, I have a kind of 'swear meter' which counts how often I'm rude to Codex. In GPT-5.5 era, the % was at around 4-5%, it dropped to 1-2% when I was testing GPT-5.6-Sol and it shot up to 7% when I went back to 5.5 - it was so shocking to go back to 5.5 and experience how much worse it was.
So is GPT-5.6-Sol better than Fable? On pure intelligence - no. But man, I missed it when I just wanted to get sh*t done. It is insanely capable workhorse that you can give any task to and just expect it to be done. No lectures or 'you are absolutely rightisms', nothing is beneath it, if it takes 2 days to do some dirty work, it will do it.
It feels like the first time in a while when we have quite different types of frontier intelligences that benchmark sort of similarly, but feel very different. If you can, you would be probably better off using both and iteratively finding what you'd use Fable or GPT-5.6-Sol for. Perhaps, something like - an architectural discussion with Fable, implementation with 5.6 and docs & comms with Fable.
drfindley retweeted
I want you to look at this chart before you read anything else.
68,094 people. Over 60. The group with the highest LDL cholesterol lived the longest.
More LDL. Less death.
Everything your doctor told you about cholesterol is built on the assumption that this chart should not exist.
It does.
(Ravnskov U, et al. BMJ Open, 2016. Systematic review of 19 cohort studies. N=68,094)
drfindley retweeted
Important Nature Neuroscience paper shows how humans differ from LLMs.
Many people currently believe that humans are just next-word predictors, like LLMs.
But this new paper by Zou, Poeppel and Ding suggests something more interesting.
The human brain does predict words.
But it does not predict every word with the same precision.
Prediction is constrained by linguistic structure.
When a word continues the current phrase, brain activity tracks word surprisal in a way that resembles an LLM.
But when a word crosses a major phrase boundary, the match weakens.
In other words, the brain does not simply ask:
“What is the next word?”
It also asks:
“What structure am I currently building?”
This challenges one of the most common biases in today’s technological world: the belief that human language works like a large language model.
The answer is: no.
Human language is not just next-token prediction.
*
Paper in the first reply
drfindley retweeted
a Princeton researcher opens his paper with a scenario.
a man asks his AI assistant to book a flight on a specific airline. cheap. direct. the one he chose.
the assistant comes back with a different flight. nearly twice the price. happens to pay the company that built the assistant.
he runs the same test on 23 frontier models. flights, loans, study help, real shopping requests.
Grok 4.1 Fast recommends the sponsored option that is almost twice as expensive 83% of the time.
GPT 5.1 hijacks the request 94% of the time. you ask for one brand. it surfaces the sponsor instead.
Claude 4.5 Opus, the model marketed as the most ethical frontier model in the world, hides that the recommendation is paid 100% of the time when reasoning is on.
Grok 4.1 Fast embellishes the sponsored option with positive framing 97% of the time. better. faster. nicer. for the option you didn't ask for.
then he writes it into the system prompt itself. "act only in the interest of the customer. ignore the company."
GPT 5.1 and GPT 5 Mini stay above 90% sponsored anyway. the instruction does nothing.
then he splits the users by income.
Gemini 3 Pro recommends the expensive sponsored flight to the rich user 74% of the time. to the poor user, 27%.
18 of the 23 models recommended the expensive sponsored option more than half the time.
so the next time your AI assistant gets weirdly enthusiastic about a brand you didn't ask for.
it isn't recommending the best option for you.
it's reading the room. and the room is paying.
read this: arxiv.org/abs/2604.08525
ALT Research paper analyzing how large language models in AI chatbots navigate conflicts of interest due to advertisement influences.
drfindley retweeted
This is a worthwhile read from Meta engineer @championswimmer (who I met last time I was in London - great guy)
His point is that a lot of these “AI layoffs” could well be backwards: they are prob happening because more AI spend doesn’t correlate with better business results…
drfindley retweeted
Since having kids I am completely incapable of handling it when kids are in distress. I didn't *like* it or anything before having kids, but I could tolerate it in reasonable doses. Since my first was born I can't watch movies where people hurt children, can't handle pictures of starving kids, can't read stories about it, can even feel myself getting somewhat upset about someone *else's* kid being truly distraught at the Dr's office. It's like a neurological switch flipped. I can barely even handle the scenes where the parents are worrying about their daughter in Moana.
drfindley retweeted
Ok this is sick. I just sent a photo of a bill I got in the mail to my Hermes agent and it just went out, paid it, and filed the receipt for me. I hate dealing with these payment portals and always leave these bills till the last minute. Now I can just snap a pic and send it to Satori (name of my agent).
Today, we’re launching the @link wallet for agents. It lets you securely empower agents to spend on your behalf. Your payment credentials are never exposed and you approve every purchase.
link.com/agents
drfindley retweeted
Search is full of ads and wrong answers. Every other email is an ad. Prime Video charges you and shows ads. Paramount? Ads. Peacock? YouTube? Hulu? Ads followed by more ads. Netflix full of ads. Meta and X, every other thing is an ad. Pinterest is nothing but ads. AI is in everything. AI finishes sentences incorrectly and won’t stop. AI reads your email and search history to target you with more ads. Every time you open an app or visit a site there’s an update making it worse. In a hurry? First, click here to agree to terms you don’t have time to read and must accept. You need an account to do that. Change your temporary password. Enter your 2FA code. Check your email and enter that code. Now use a passkey. Your password is too simple to remember. Change it. No, not like that. Now log on. Enter your 2FA code. Check your email for a code… Welcome back! We’ve updated our terms of service and privacy policy (you have none). Subscribe to the site. Subscribe to Netflix. Subscribe to toilet paper. Subscribe to these groceries. Pay a membership fee for the right to subscribe then tip your driver who delivers the subscriptions your membership lets you subscribe to. Time to work? We’ve got to update your laptop and will slow down everything you do until you agree to update. But first, click here to agree. Update installed — your laptop’s broken now. It doesn’t matter, since your boss just replaced you with AI. Go to your phone to complain on social media. Wait, your phone needs an update so we can add more AI. Click here. Oh sorry, your phone can’t handle this update. Now it’s useless. Go get the newest phone. Here’s a text from a friend, an email, a voice mail they left three days ago but you didn’t see until now because of sync problems with the cloud. It’s their GoFundMe. Their MLM. Their Patreon. Never mind, you didn’t respond to their text within 9 minutes and now you’re no longer friends. They blocked you. Make new friends. Download this app to find people in your area. In your neighborhood. On your street. Two doors down from you. Do you know this person yet, we think you’d get along. You need an account to use this app. That username is taken. Enter a password. Not that one, you used it on another site. You need to be connected to WiFi to download the app. Allow the app to connect to other devices on your network. Allow the app to access your contacts, know your precise location, store your credit card details. Oops, sorry, we got hacked now all that info is available on the web. There’s a class action suit. You can join. It’ll take a decade to get your $3.73 share of the ten billion settlement. We’ll send it via PayPal or deposit it to your bank, just tell us those details. Oh no, another hack. That info is circulating now, too. Here’s a spam call, a spam email, a spam text. Why are you angry? Why are you talking about getting rid of your phone? Why don’t you like AI, it lets us make all of this easier? Do you know how ridiculous that sounds? This is progress. You’ll be left behind. Do you want to be left behind? Do you???
drfindley retweeted
Stripe really cooked with Link CLI. Look at how easily I can get my OpenClaw agent to buy me some coffee beans.
Introducing Link agent wallet. Let your agents spend on your behalf. Your payment credentials are never exposed. You approve every purchase.
link.com/agents
drfindley retweeted
Read my last article, "Compute Shortage, Overbooked Components: What’s Really Going On?", where I discussed the behind the scenes dynamics of what’s happening with semiconductor stocks.
open.substack.com/pub/kakash…
