Dr. Bryan McElderry

The timing of today's market crash is noteworthy. As selling pressure spreads, the Nasdaq 100 is now down nearly -5% on the day. Meanwhile, the market-implied odds of a Democrat "sweep" in the Midterms next week has surged from 65% to 72% today, a record high. That's +7 percentage points in 2 days amid this market downturn. We have yet to receive a comment from the Trump Administration regarding the current situation in the market. However, what is clear is that the timing of today's market crash will be consequential. And, even as technology stocks drop sharply, US Treasury Yields are barely seeing any relief. This leaves us with high rates, a falling stock market, $100+ oil prices, and rising CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation. Next week is going to be interesting, to say the least.

BREAKING: US oil prices surge to their highest level since September 17th as US-Iran tensions escalate.

BREAKING: The Federal Reserve officially hikes interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its first rate hike since July 2023. This ends the longest Fed interest rate pause since 2008.

SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (9/16/2026): 1. Fed hikes interest rates by 25 bps for first time since July 2023 2. The decision was made in a 12-0 unanimous vote 3. Fed says the decision will support a "timelier" return to 2% inflation 4. Median Fed forecast shows one more 25 basis point rate hike in 2026 5. Fed says job gains are strong and the unemployment rate has "changed little" 6. "The Committee will deliver price stability," the Fed's statement says Higher for longer is back.

The Fed made a very clear statement today. Not only did they hike interest rates, but it was a 12-0 unanimous decision. This marks the first unanimous Fed decision since May 2025, amid calls from President Trump to cut rates. And, the Fed concluded their policy statement by saying, "The Committee will deliver price stability," making it clear that inflation is their top priority. The question now becomes: How does President Trump respond? 12 days ago, President Trump said he would "stop trading" with 50+ US trade partners if the Fed does not cut rates. Today, the Fed not only avoided cutting rates, they hiked them. Clearly, the divide between the White House and the Fed is widening, even with Jerome Powell out. More to come.

SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR WARSH'S STATEMENT (9/16/26): 1. Warsh says the decision to hike rates comes at a time when the economy is "strengthening" 2. Warsh says he is "hard-pressed to call financial conditions restrictive" 3. The view that conditions are not restrictive was "widely shared by the FOMC" 4. Warsh says the predominant focus of the Fed is on price stability 5. Warsh says he did not submit a dot for the Fed's dot-plot 6. The Fed "must be confident that inflation is moving to our 2% objective" The Fed is highly committed to obtaining 2% inflation.

BREAKING: President Trump says inflation is “too high” and he wants Fed Chair Warsh to be independent. Trump also says he “still has confidence” in Fed Chair Warsh despite today’s rate hike.

BREAKING: President Trump says the Fed should have cut interest rates to 1% or lower and says the US is “carrying” countries with which it runs trade deficits.

We now have: 1. Large cap tech CEOs unified on regulating AI 2. President Trump rejecting these tech CEOs' calls 3. Fed Chair Warsh expected to HIKE rates in his first time moving interest rates 4. Up to 30 million barrels of Middle East oil flows at risk 5. US diesel prices up +80% as peak demand season begins 6. One of the strongest periods of earnings growth in history Q4 is going to be interesting to say the least.

BREAKING: After falling -80% from its record high, Nike, $NKE, will be removed from the S&P 100 at the end of this month, ending a near 18-year run in the index. The stock has now erased -$230 billion in market cap since its all time high. A collapse for the history books.