纽约博叔 (@druncle) header
纽约博叔 (@druncle) profile picture

定居纽约,Commodity Quant 量化分析师。生活日常推,偶尔随想杂谈,中间偏右但不极端 👉👉👉订阅文章列表:https://teapaw.org/t.co/8nmcAKbAnr

New York, NY
Joined February 2023
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我感觉现在 Grok Bot 和 Muse 的 Token 消耗太快,一个星期没用两三天,限额就用完了。有的时候昨晚还是 50%,今早起来就是 用完100% 了。 打算订阅一个阿里的千问Bot ,毕竟比美国便宜很多,用来完成一些简单的操作,把 Grok Bot 和 Muse 留给更复杂、更重要的工作。 有在用千问的吗?分享一下用的体验吧。
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毫无疑问,如果中期选举共和党赢,股市会升。如果民主党赢,股市会跌,这是从常识都知道的,与立场无关。 现在市场进入极度恐惧状态,这说明共和党有点形势不妙。媒体和民调可以撒谎,但是市场不会撒谎。
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我觉得这是川普给过马斯克支撑里面最有力的
BREAKING: Trump said he would be willing to offer protective pardons to Elon Musk and close aides if Democrats take control of Congress after the midterm elections
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Dearborn 是美国最大的阿拉伯人社区,最早是美伊战争安置战俘的地方。以前在密歇根上学时,当地的出租车司机和汽修铺大多是阿拉伯人,打车时我还跟伊拉克战俘聊过天。 每逢美国大选,总统候选人都会来这里演讲,争取阿拉伯裔选民的选票。
Voting underway in Iraq… Just kidding This is Dearborn, Michigan.
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明天就是中期选举投票日了。为了把教室腾出来作为投票站给公众投票,孩子学校明天也临时改成了远程网课。 说实话,现在的美国政坛,民主党和共和党谁的屁股都不干净。但在现实政治里,投票往往不是挑最好的,而是两害相权取其轻、矮子里面拔将军。 美国又一次面临何去何从的十字路口,我还是希望共和党能赢,至少把刹车踩住。 天佑美国!🙏🙏🙏
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笑死,太真实,关键是这位美女的面部表情表演,实在太到位了😂
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A股经历惨淡10月后,中国央行正式启动第三次互换便利(SFISF),31家机构申报额度超1000亿元。这并不是央行直接印钱买股票,而是通过“以券换券”的方式,给机构提供融资支持,让他们去买股票托底市场。 通俗说,机构手里压着大批股票或基金,这些属于流动性差的资产,市场行情不好时很难迅速抵押借到钱;而央行手里有流动性很高的国债。于是央行跟他们搞“置换”,机构用不好变现的资产换走央行的高流动性硬通货,再拿着硬通货轻松融到真金白银,而且这笔钱被严格限定只能用来买股票。 央行前两次搞的这种置换操作,实际效果其实并不尽如人意。因为这些机构自身也要算账,他们要看当前市场脸色和行情走势,申报了额度并不等于真会全买,机构真正拿去加仓买股票的金额往往远低于当初申报的数字。 因此,央行这一次的置换操作,更像是一颗防恐慌的定心丸,能不能真的让大家掏钱买股票,关键还是看市场对未来的经济有没有信心。
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川普列的这些条,我基本只认同第二条,至于是不是完全一个非法移民也没有放进来过,这个杠也没必要抬了
🚨 JUST IN: President Trump is on FIRE with polls opening in less than 24 hours "I've kept EVERY SINGLE PROMISE I made." - Oil today is down -$10 — the biggest drop in oil in history - 17 months without one person entering illegally from the southern border 🔥 - We passed the largest tax cuts in American history: no tax on tips, overtime or Social Security - Personal incomes are the highest in history - Poverty rate is at al all-time record low — meaning, the best we've ever had - The USA is now the largest supplier of oil and gas - We secured an agreement for Greenland - We won Venezuela - $1,776 to our troops - $5,000 check coming to Americans if we win Tomorrow is huge. We want an election day SURGE.
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琼斯和塔克在中期选举的前一天,都在大肆散布川普要发动核打击,他们这是要干什么?是鼓励人们去投民主党的票?
🚨RED ALERT: IT'S OFFICIAL— Trump Is Strongly Considering Launching A Nuclear Attack Against Iran! "Humanity Has Never Been At This Point Before! Trump Is About To Pull The Nuclear Trigger, Strike Iran, & Openly Start A Nuclear World War!" Alex Jones Break Down Why This Would Be Absolutely Disastrous For The Planet, Creating Deadly Radioactive Fallout For Thousands Of Years As The Nuclear Exchange Escalates To A Global Conflict! Is Now The Time For President Trump To Be Removed Via The 25th Amendment? WATCH/SHARE THIS EMERGENCY REPORT!
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人们都在担心AI要抢走人类的饭碗,但实际情况可能和我们想的不太一样。 ZeroHedge最近发了一篇标题叫《AI Is Creating Jobs... For People Who Already Have Jobs》的文章,说根据调查发现,使用AI的公司其实并没有停止招人,这些招聘的岗位几乎全留给了有丰富工作经验的人,真正被AI挤压和替代的,反而是那些刚毕业、没有经验的年轻人以及各类初级岗位。 这个现象其实也好理解。现在的AI确实能大幅提升工作效率,但它根本无法做到完全独立工作,依然只是一个需要人类发出精准指令的高效帮手。如何给AI拆解任务、怎么判断AI给出的结果是否靠谱,这些都需要扎实的行业底子。只有真正懂业务、有丰富经验的人,才知道怎么指挥它、纠正它,而初级新手显然还不具备这种驾驭工具的能力。 这给年轻人的启示很明确:不要盲目跟风去死磕纯技术。相反,对行业本质的深入理解、扎实的人文素养、审美与沟通思考能力,才是人真正不可替代的核心底色。 在AI时代,技术门槛正在被抹平,反而那些具备深厚通识底蕴、懂人性和社会逻辑的人,更懂得如何精准提问、反复打磨并驾驭AI。从这个角度来看,人文社科背景的人,未来不仅没有被边缘化,反而可能迎来更好的机会。
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我儿子读高中时,班上有个亚裔女生,父母在法拉盛打工忙于谋生、无暇管她,她自己是个激进的左翼女权主义者。 有次语文课上,一位德高望重的老师在讲解一个缺乏历史文献记载的印第安部落时,用了一张无脸人像胶片做展示,结果被这个女生直接告到市教育局,导致这位德高望重的老师最终被学校开除。 后来这女生高中没念完就退学了,据说跑去做了全职女权活动家。 所以说,在美国青少年群体中,最容易变成极端“左棍”的,往往正是这类父母忙着打工赚钱、对孩子疏于管教的亚裔家庭女孩。
Update on Temulun Togochog, the crazy lady arrested at the University of Michigan: Her parents fled Chinese Communist Party persecution so any children they had could grow up free in America. Both were living in the U.S. as political asylees for years before she was born. In December 2024, at age 17, she testified before Congress about her privilege of living here and spoke out for Southern Mongolians whose language, culture, and rights are being erased under the CCP. What changed you say - she went to college. Got a septum piercing among others, and was arrested for violently assaulting a Jewish woman at a University of Michigan event while saying she should have killed her. From escaping the enforcers to becoming one. The irony writes itself.
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这小伙子就是前几天川普搞“反欺诈举报奖励”时,现场被颁发首笔1万美元支票的示范吹哨人。 他天天这样四处暗访曝光黑幕,真让人替他的处境捏把汗。他动的不止是一两家机构,而是在斩断一整条盘根错节、动辄数亿美元的灰色利益链,背后得罪的是一整个系统性群体。 深水区水太深,当年贵为一国总统的肯尼迪尚且死于非命,在真正的利益怪物面前,一个赤手空拳的民间网红又能撑多久?真心希望他能警惕自身的安全。
🚨 Inside the Largest Government Funded Human Trafficking Ring in History: Your tax dollars trafficked over 300,000 children across the United States while NGOs enriched themselves with millions of dollars. One NGO received $895 million to traffic children across the US. Others got $100+ million, and NGOs in areas like Tucson, Arizona pocketed millions but now receive nothing since the border shut down. In this video we break down the contracts, speak with former Border Patrol, and confront the NGOs. It’s a must watch, like it and share it. Make sure no one forgets the hundreds of children lost in the government’s hands.
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塔克·卡尔森这个一贯的大嘴真是语不惊人死不休,如果说川普过几天可能对伊朗发动军事打击,这倒还说得过去,但声称要搞核打击,那真是信口开河。 ​为什么我认为川普过几天有可能动手?因为无论中期选举共和党是赢是输,动武的概率都不小。 如果赢了,没了选举压力,自然可以放手去打; 如果输了,甚至可能破罐破摔,反正毫无后顾之忧,照样会打。 ​这两天伊朗释放出愿意和谈的信号,川普也表态愿意和平谈判,但博叔觉得这可能只是大选前的权宜之计和选战话术。 为什么我认为川普在中期选举后会打击伊朗?因为他身边的那个犹太女婿不会闲着。当初仓促开战,后来因为中期选举而放缓节奏,中期选举一过包袱没了,就可以甩开膀子干了。
Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer. Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war. To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party. In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha. The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon. Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people. And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final. We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months. Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it. Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made. They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February. After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making. One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week. Now would be the time for them to speak up.
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前段时间网上有一组中美AI算力使用场景的对比数据,美国大概有近60%的AI算力,是花在写代码、做科研和搞自动化这些正经干活的工具上;而中国却有超过一半的算力,全用在生成短剧和短视频上,真正用在软件开发等硬科技上的只有可怜的15%。 很多中国人一拿到一个新技术、新工具,脑子里第一个念头永远是怎么立刻变现、怎么马上把钱搞到手。于是大家一窝蜂涌去做短视频,为了吸人眼球、抢流量,连最起码的底线都不要了。 就像视频里这种AI做出来的烂短剧,剧情荒唐可笑,恶俗到了极点。昂贵的芯片和大量的电费,最后就用来大批量造这种毫无营养的垃圾。 一项原本能改变世界的技术,如果从一开始就被大家拿来搞这种无底线的快钱生意,靠恶俗去博眼球、捞热钱,那它怎么可能有真正的科技竞争力?
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好,那我来回应你。 阿拉斯加的那个人长期就是反川普,共和党早就习惯了,根本不是中期选举前几天突然调转枪口。而民主党这次这个人关键时刻临时倒戈,杀伤力完全不一样。如果当初她初选被淘汰时候就开始倒戈,现在民主党不会如此震怒。 川普因为意见不合就封杀共和党人的例子还少吗?Liz Cheney、Bill Cassidy、Thomas Massie、印第安纳州那几位州议员、Brad Raffensperger,都是被他直接下场搞掉的。我不是说支持这些反水的人,只是想说,共和党和川普封杀反对者的例子还少吗?我不是说这些共和党反水者不该封杀,但是你不能忽略事实,不能看待民主党和共和党双标。
还有缅因州的苏珊柯林斯,我觉得纽约博叔这个人,他明知道川普和共和党并不会像民主党团伙那样彻底封杀和结束Haley Stevens的正式生涯,但她还是昧着良心还这么说,我不知道他是何居心,是想保持与众不同的吗?我不知道,希望他能回应我
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有没有发现,女生更容易被带歪。 我以前发帖也说过,也跟我儿子讨论并得到他认同,就是通过对纽约中学青少年的观察,最容易被左翼进步主义洗脑的,是那种父母忙着赚钱或打工不管孩子的亚裔家庭女孩子。
大学是教学,而不是灌输。 左翼把美国年轻人毁成这样👇 拯救美国,拒绝投票民主党!
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卢比奥说老川不想真对伊朗动武,想和平谈判解决,结果油价应声暴跌。 这是川普政府打脸自己啊,说明推高油价的就是霍尔木兹海峡,而不是乌克兰轰炸俄罗斯炼油厂。早知如此,当初何必对伊朗开战呢?结果现在陷入战争泥潭,极大拖累中期选举。
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密歇根州民主党参选人阿卜杜勒接受采访,被问到跨性别孩子参加体育比赛的问题。 他说这些都不是真问题,是人为制造出来的。重要的不是不让孩子看到某种东西,反正他们至少在网上能看到。 谁都知道,中学生跨性别体育比赛里,更衣室隐私是核心争议。按他的逻辑,女孩子在更衣室看到男性生殖器无所谓,反正她们以后能看到。 这就是民主党左棍们的混蛋逻辑吗?
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