Tomorrow. June 17th. Cape Canaveral.
$ASTS BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 launch on SpaceX’s Falcon 9.
Locked in the fairing. Ready to go.
Three more satellites joining the constellation that’s replacing cell towers with space.
AT&T signed. Verizon signed. FCC approved. 45 satellites targeted by year end.
The stock is down because investors sold it to buy SpaceX. Plain and simple.
The irony is SpaceX is the rocket carrying the satellites tomorrow.
This isn’t a trade. It’s a generational thesis.
Space based cellular broadband connecting every device on Earth.
The mission doesn’t wait for the price action to catch up.
Tomorrow we launch. 🚀
this trade was obviously not going to work post IPO:
proxies are usually stay at a 40% discount to NAV, in the case of SATS, they don't get the shares until november iirc at which point the value could be significantly less than now especially with early investors / insiders exiting on volume / price target terms
you could look more recently at how DGXX performed post CBRS IPO - and thats a company who has more than just shares + spectrum rights
SpaceX IPOs tomorrow at a $1.75 trillion valuation. $SATS owns more than 2% of SpaceX.
It seems like almost nobody is doing the math on what that is actually worth.
EchoStar swapped a chunk of its wireless spectrum for a stake of more than 2% in SpaceX last September as part of the FCC approved $40 billion deal with SpaceX and AT&T.
At the time SpaceX was valued far below where it is about to list. Tomorrow that stake gets repriced against a $1.75 trillion company.
At that $1.75 trillion price, TD Cowen pegs EchoStar’s SpaceX stake at roughly $31 billion and puts a $155 target on the stock.
But SpaceX is widely expected to trade well above its IPO price.
Run the same math at a $2 trillion valuation and that stake jumps to around $40 billion on its own, which is more than EchoStar’s entire $36 billion market cap today.
You would be getting the SpaceX position alone for more than the whole company is currently worth, with everything else thrown in for free.
And there is a lot else. A $40 billion spectrum sale to AT&T and SpaceX that wipes out the 2026 debt wall everyone was scared of.
Around 5 million satellite TV customers. 2 million Sling subscribers. 7 million Boost Mobile customers. 700,000 broadband customers.
One of the most valuable spectrum portfolios in the country sitting on top of roughly $10 billion in net cash.
The market spent years treating EchoStar as a dying satellite TV company buried in debt. That story is finished.
The spectrum deal cleared the overhang and the SpaceX stake quietly turned this into one of the only ways for public investors to own a real piece of SpaceX.
The honest risk is the roughly $22 billion in debt and the fact that the FCC transfers do not fully close until 2027. This is not a clean bet.
But at $116, with SpaceX about to list and likely run toward $2 trillion, the math points higher. TD Cowen sees $155 even using the conservative number.
SpaceX prices tonight. EchoStar owns 2% of it.
$ASTS dropped 15% on the SpaceX IPO.
$PL dropped 9%.
I’m not worried at all.
In 4 days $ASTS launches BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10.
Ironically on SpaceX’s Falcon 9.
The company the market sold $ASTS to buy is literally the rocket carrying $ASTS satellites to orbit.
And $PL’s CEO was photographed outside 10 Downing Street this week meeting the UK government. New London office opening. Defense revenue up 65%. $906M backlog.
These businesses don’t know the stock is down.
SpaceX just put a $1.77T valuation on the space sector.
$ASTS and $PL are the ecosystem around it.
The dip was mechanical. The thesis is generational.
Still holding both. Not moving.
duc retweeted
This thread + substack in my profile on Planoptik/$P40 and OCS is HIGHLY SPECULATIVE. I put disparate info together to infer. Not financial advice and do your own diligence. Illiquid ~30m euro market cap stock. DO NOT buy without personally vetting. I own shares👇
duc retweeted
So just checked out the comments...
$P4O does look like a potential upstream $LITE supplier at a $34M MC.
How it likely maps:
-> Plan Optik $P4O (Glass Wafers)
-> Teledyne $TDY or Silek (Mem Foundries)
-> $LITE (OCS Switches)
-> $GOOGL (TPUs)
However, $LITE likely dual sources with Corning ( $GLW ) on the glass wafer level.
P4O is a known supplier to Infineon, Samsung, and others, so not exactly a random company.
€3.35 million vs. 35.52M MC is very healthy balance sheet.
That being said:
-> That doesn't exactly mean this translates to material revenue boosts unless they start price hike (given glass wafers are likely a very small part of $LITE OCS BOM).
I do personally own shares, after reading this.
Since $LITE OCS potential supply chain chokepoints is strategically valuable. Maybe not so much so as financially valuable.
But their core thesis that Plan Optik's Glass Flow and MDF finishing are effectively irreplaceable for OCS packaging checks out.
Of course, hyperscaler supply chains are heavily guarded, so no way to know 100%.
All credit goes to follower comments.
But TLDR:
Supply Chain Mapping
-> $P4O -> Foundries -> $LITE -> $GOOGL is very likely from their analysis.
As for being a chokepoint in $LITE OCS supply chain... dunno if it translates materially.
Again, not recommending this at all.
Just thought the $LITE OCS supply chain mapping like this very interesting, and that it would be a waste of the follower kinda posted all this work into the void.
🤖 Made with AI
4) Their fiber-optic gyroscope technology took 20+ years to build and is among the most precise in the world. The only alternatives are Honeywell, Safran and Northrop Grumman, none of whom are focused on winning this niche.
