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Gm Folks We are back! This is another edition of the Predict Alpha Report, our bi-monthly collaboration with @CoinsiliumGroup tracking the rise of prediction markets, event-driven finance, and the growing role of AI agents within it. Each edition focuses on the signals that matter, from capital flows and fundraising activity to regulatory shifts and product innovation. As information is increasingly priced in real time by both humans and machines, the Predict Alpha Report will track where these signals lead. But first, let’s get this part out of the way: Always DYOR: This bulletin is for informational purposes only and contains summaries of news articles originally published by third-party media outlets. Please refer to the full disclaimer at the end of the post. Now, let’s get started. Here are the highlights: 💸 Capital Signals 👉Prediction markets 21x-ed 👉 $1 Billion Raise 👉AI For Everyday 👉@Predictive_Labs to Showcase @nijinn_official in Web Summit Lisbon 2026 Startup Programme 📈 Industry Pulse 👉Blockchain_com Joins Prediction Markets 👉Polymarket Hires… 👉Kalshi Oil Futures 👉Kalshi’s Transparency Trio 💸 Capital Signals 💰Prediction markets 21x-ed Prediction markets saw trading volume reach $188 billion in Q3 2026, according to CryptoRank, marking a nearly 70% increase from the previous quarter and a staggering 21-fold rise from the same period last year. Much of that growth came from Kalshi, where sports accounted for around 40% of quarterly trading activity. Kalshi and Polymarket also recorded about $1.4 billion in combined open interest, which reflects the value of outstanding positions. While elections initially put prediction markets in the spotlight, people now use these platforms to trade on everything from sports results to economic decisions. 💰 $1 Billion Raise @Kalshi is in advanced talks to raise another $1 billion in funding at a valuation of around $40 billion, nearly doubling the $22 billion valuation it secured in May 2026. The round is expected to be led by Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management, with Tiger Global and Dragoneer also participating. The rapid increase in valuation reflects growing investor confidence in prediction markets, particularly as Kalshi expands its sports trading activity and gains ground against rival Polymarket, which is reportedly pursuing its own $1 billion funding round. Kalshi's ambitions are also moving beyond prediction markets. The company is exploring opportunities to offer a wider range of trading products, potentially putting it in competition with established financial exchanges like CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. 💰AI For Everyday San Francisco-based AI startup Instinct has raised $1 billion in fresh funding, pushing its valuation to $10 billion, four times the $2.5 billion it was valued at just a month earlier. The round attracted major investors including Sequoia Capital, Benchmark Capital and Coatue. Instinct is developing a personal AI assistant capable of completing everyday tasks on behalf of users, from booking flights and ordering groceries to managing subscriptions, using simple text or voice instructions. The company has also introduced a Concierge service for handling phone calls and specialised bookings, alongside technology that allows different AI agents to coordinate tasks with each other, and security measures designed to catch AI mistakes before they lead to real-world actions. The new funding will support further product development and help Instinct expand beyond its current early-access stage. And rounding up this section: 💰Predictive Labs to Showcase Nijinn in Web Summit Lisbon 2026 Startup Programme @WebSummit Lisbon, one of the world’s leading technology events, returns from 9–12 November 2026 with prominent AI industry speakers including Richard Socher, co-founder of You(dot)com, an AI-powered search and research platform; Michele Catasta, President at Replit, an online coding and AI app-building platform; and Fabian Hedin, co-founder of Lovable, which builds apps from natural-language instructions. Blockchain and digital assets will also be represented by Ben Zhou, CEO of Bybit, and Markus Infanger, Senior Vice President at Ripple. Predictive Labs will exhibit as part of the event’s startup programme, with founder @johann_evrard attending to showcase Nijinn, its prediction-market data and analytics platform, to some of the world’s leading entrepreneurs and investment firms. The programme’s focus on connecting startups with investors and industry leaders could help raise Nijinn’s international profile and open new commercial opportunities for Predictive Labs. Web Summit has grown from a small conference into a global gathering attracting more than 70,000 attendees. Ahead of Web Summit Lisbon, Predictive Labs will also attend NEXT Predict in New York on 22–23 October, a dedicated prediction-markets summit focused on the sector’s development, including market infrastructure, liquidity, regulation and product innovation. 📌 FYI: Coinsilium’s shares are traded on the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market in London, under the ticker symbol "COIN", and on the OTCQB Venture Market in the United States under the ticker symbol "CINGF". But it’s not just capital flowing into the space. Keep reading for the latest signals in regulation, adoption, and structure. 📈 Industry Pulse ⚡️ Blockchain_com Joins Prediction Markets @blockchain has applied for two licenses from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as it looks to offer prediction markets and cryptocurrency derivatives directly to American customers. The company already offers prediction markets and crypto futures to some international users through Polymarket and Hyperliquid, but securing these licenses would bring those services under its own platform in the US. The goal is to give everyday users and institutional investors one place to manage crypto, trade derivatives and make predictions on real-world outcomes. The move comes as more companies compete for a share of the rapidly growing prediction-market industry. According to CNBC, 11 other firms have applied for similar exchange licenses in 2026, with six already approved by the CFTC. ⚡️ Polymarket Hires… @Polymarket has hired Lisa Mantil, a former Goldman Sachs partner with nearly 30 years of experience, as its new head of institutional growth. Mantil previously led Goldman Sachs' ETF accelerator, and her appointment signals Polymarket's growing focus on attracting institutional investors, including banks, asset managers, and other large financial firms. While everyday traders have driven much of the recent growth in prediction markets, platforms are increasingly looking to bring larger investors into the space. The new appointment follows the launch of Polymarket's US exchange in May and the recent appointment of Warren Jenson, a former finance executive at Amazon and Delta Air Lines, as its first chief financial officer. ⚡️Kalshi Oil Futures Kalshi has filed a proposal with the CFTC to introduce a new oil futures contract linked to West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a key benchmark for US crude oil prices. Unlike traditional futures contracts that expire on a set date, this product would allow traders to maintain their positions without a fixed expiry, making it easier to manage exposure to changing oil prices. Although the proposal is still subject to a 45-day regulatory review, it would become the first crude oil perpetual futures contract on a regulated US exchange if approved. Already, Kalshi's commodity trading activity has been growing quickly, with volumes approaching $400 million by early September, nearly four times the pace of its crypto products at a similar stage. At the same time, ⚡️Kalshi’s Transparency Trio Kalshi has introduced three new transparency features to help people better understand its prediction markets ahead of the November 2026 US midterm elections. The features are due to the election trading volume, which has already surpassed that of the 2024 presidential election. The updates include labels highlighting low trading activity markets, live feeds showing individual trades as they happen, and Brier scores, which measure how accurate past market predictions have been. Kalshi is also partnering with the Associated Press to display live vote counts and race calls, while CBS News and 270toWin will feature its forecasts alongside traditional polling and election results. Its dedicated Midterms Hub brings together market probabilities, polling averages, campaign fundraising, and election news across Senate, House, and governor races. And that’s it! Long read, but if you enjoyed this, set a reminder in your calendar for the next edition of the Predict Alpha Report. Thanks to Coinsilium, we’ll be dropping these updates every other Monday, i.e., twice a month. Till then, Thank you for being a part of the When Shift Happens family. Full Disclaimer All rights to the original content belong to the respective publishers. We do not claim ownership of any third-party material and provide proper attribution, including source links, for transparency and reference. While we strive for accuracy in our summaries, we make no warranties or guarantees regarding the completeness or accuracy of the information provided. Any mention of cryptocurrency, financial products, public company stocks, or other investment instruments in this newsletter or the referenced articles is not intended as financial advice or a recommendation to invest. The information is not tailored to any individual’s circumstances and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Readers are encouraged to consult the original articles and seek independent financial, legal, or professional advice before making any investment. The author(s) of this report may hold, directly or indirectly, positions in the securities or digital assets (including shares or tokens) of the company(ies) or project(s) mentioned herein. Any such holdings are disclosed for transparency and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.