defi thinkboi @OxfordLawFac. prev: eic @ dl news (rip) of defillama

yookay
Joined April 2009
A lot of people in AI world come from a Bayesian intellectual tradition. As a result they tend to be very good model-based thinkers. Yet I often find that while they hedge and use probabilities, they rarely question their own modelling in the first place. This great paper shows that Bayesian updating can only move belief around within the hypotheses you start with - so no amount of hedging will actually tell you you're wrong about the initial assumptions/world model. arxiv.org/abs/1006.3868
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🚨 New paper alert 🚨 Active Liquidity On Chain: Evidence from PropAMMs Across Chains w/ Ozan Solmaz @jason_of_cs Liquidity providers on traditional AMMs such as Uniswap are passive and suffer from adverse selection. As a result, their price only moves through trades. When an external market moves, these LPs get picked off on their stale quotes. PropAMMs, a new design, emerged in 2024 attempting to combat this. In them, a single operator quotes from its own inventory and reprices actively. By 2026, propAMMs carried more than half of SOL/USDC volume on Solana and had been found, among other chains, on Base and Monad. Our work seeks to elucidate the benefits of this new design both for LPs and for retail users. Do propAMM operators really have an edge over passive LPs, and if so, where does this edge come from? Can propAMMs offer tighter quotes to retail users? We measured a full year of propAMMs on Solana, Base and Monad, and decoded the closed-source on-chain logic of Tessera, the largest propAMM on Base. The result: propAMMs have a measurable edge over passive LPs: two seconds after a fill, propAMMs earn 0.37 bps on Solana, 1.19 bps on Base and 1.69 bps on Monad, while passive LPs on AMMs comparatively lose 0.22, 0.62 and 2.06 bps. We trace the edge to four sources: 🟠 Cheap, frequent repricing: updates use at least 25 times less resources than swaps on Solana, and 5 to 15 times less on Base and Monad. Generally, the default block order on all three chains is by priority fee per unit of computation. Thus, an update pays far less than a swap for the same priority placement. 🟠 Pricing by counterparty: five of the six largest Solana propAMMs offer tighter spreads to aggregator flow than to non-aggregator flow. For Tessera on Base, we show that it whitelists, penalizes or blacklists individual addresses. 🟠 Arbitrage against AMMs: when a reference price moves, propAMMs reprice while AMMs do not, and arbitrageurs trade the two. A propAMM fills at its updated quote, so it may break even on these legs on Solana and Base and even earn 1.55 bps on Monad. 🟠 Spoofing: aggregators route on the quote from the end of the previous block. For Tessera on Base, we show that the operator consistently raises its default fee early in the block and lowers it again late in the block, so aggregators read stale state that carries the lower fee. As a result, only 39% of swaps execute at the quoted price, and the average swap receives 1.08 bps less. The second question we ask is: can propAMMs offer users tighter quotes as a result of their edge? The answer is yes: on fills that arrive while the price is not moving (our proxy for retail flow) propAMMs take 0.26 bps on Solana, 1.26 bps on Base and 1.62 bps on Monad, where AMMs take 2.59, 1.38 and 8.60 bps respectively. Retail also makes up a larger share of propAMM volume: 32%, 43% and 17% on Solana, Base and Monad, against 9%, 16% and 8% on AMMs. What did we learn? PropAMMs avoid the losses of passive liquidity provision, yet still manage to give retail tighter quotes. However, users also have to bear the cost of spoofing, which we expect to change as aggregators move to an on-chain methodology. Link: arxiv.org/abs/2609.38056
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in my next research brief I'll analyse tokens of appreciation and crypto tokens
Comparing LLM tokens to crypto tokens. What is BlackRock smoking? There's literally zero connection beyond the fact that both are called tokens.
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in solidarity with the princes of liechtenstein
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could this estimate be remotely true? that's more than the entire populations of eu countries like bulgaria and denmark January 2025 factsheet, jointly by EU regulatory agencies of banking & securities markets
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SEC clarification on the recent 'innovation exemption' and how it applies to DeFi — it doesn't... unless your centralised protocol larps as DeFi!
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Only on @CoWSwap — if you submit an order, 20+ solvers will compete and try to squeeze out the last penny for you by finding the wildest route to settle your trade.
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ekin retweeted
In case you stay up at night wondering if your LP position was secretely doing something you never thought possible
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has some new crypto database leaked? been getting endless password reset requests from X
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turn on mobile app 2fa disable text reset and then this: xitter.cf/SHL0MS/status/20947843…
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this seems to be the cause: xitter.cf/Atitty/status/20947975…
NordVPN states that 5 million email addresses got leaked This is why everyone is getting “hacked” today on X
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with a wallet freshly funded from gate dot io
A market-price movement in the Pendle PT-reUSD oracle used by a third-party Morpho market triggered liquidations of leveraged PT positions. reUSD itself was unaffected and the Morpho market incurred no bad debt. We are investigating whether the PT market price was intentionally manipulated and are working with the relevant teams on a safer oracle configuration.
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Here's what happened based on a quick investigation - 0x854e... starts TWAP-buying YT-reUSD to push down the price of PT - borrower 0xaa34... was sitting at a 90.9% LTV - By buying YTs, 0x854e pushed 5.4M PT into a pool that held 3.1M PTs - 15-min TWAP price falls to 0.9647, causing 0xaa34 to be flagged for liquidation - Liquidator 0xd67d... seizes the collateral and repays the debt - Liquidator and YT buyer are the same entity, because the liquidator paid for the buyer's gas multiple times - they then use the YT bought + seized PTs to redeem for reUSD without slippage This entity was already holding YTs and a leverage loop on PT-reUSD so they saw easy money in forcing a liquidation. Their realized gains were at least $360k + they have unrealized p&l from their other positions. Two major problems: 1) Morpho market used an Oracle with a 15min TWAP, which is not robust enough for long-dated pools that will have low liquidity 2) this type of "MEV" is a looper's nightmare. Play to close to the sun and you're inviting sophisticated players to liquidate you
The Morpho @re PT-Reusd market was just the victim of an oracle manipulation attack, due to mis configured oracles the wallet below was able to purchase millions of YT’s to liquidate approximately ~37m worth of loops debank.com/profile/0x854e3f3… The wallet is freshly funded, curious to see how the Re team handles this, stay safe out there 🫡
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another mechanism tradfi will steal from crypto: every stock will trade against its index, just like tokens trade against eth gud article
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in paris until early september locked in on research & building (aka unemployment) any crypto / crypto-adjacent stuff happening here these days (other than kidnappings)? – at Paris, France
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The funniest thing just happened. Justin Sun is going absolute BEAST MODE on Coinbase, Binance and Hyperliquid's AML mechanisms. He is DUSTING everyone who interacted with Coinbase, Binance or HL before with a few USDT from HTX. HTX is under sanctions in the EU and the UK since May 26th - any owner of an address that received money from it in the past 3-4 months received a freeze from Coinbase until they show "proof" that they weren't using a blacklisted financial entity. Binance announced it will restrict deposits and withdrawals involving 11 platforms including HTX from 23 August - so clearly this is in retaliation. By doing this now - Justin Sun is basically forcing the hand of Coinbase and Binance, and regulators in the EU (which CB/Binance always lobbies) to legitimize HTX as a real business entity. Or end up with thousands of pissed off users. Only in crypto.
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love to see the og of defi lending (2018!) coming back strong, especially after so many defi protocols & crypto companies have been turning off the lights lately
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"everyone is weird somewhere" about high-dimensional spaces, made by claude fable
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This excellent @TIME cover story is another example of the remarkable progress being made in bringing serious discussion of UAP into the mainstream. One of our objectives at @DisclosureFound has been to ensure that credible people, in credible forums, could speak credibly about this issue. Seeing that effort reflected on the cover of Time is an important milestone. Much remains to be done, but this represents genuine progress.
After decades of secrecy and stigma, the government has at last begun taking UAPs (formerly called UFOs) seriously—and for good reason time.com/article/2026/08/06/…
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