🗳️ Reporting UK Election Results & Collating Polling Data | A Project By @mattftommo | In Partnership with @NavigatePol
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📊 | Nowcast, By-Election Results, Opinion Polling & More | electionmaps.uk
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Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 28% (=)
CON: 23% (-1)
RFM: 22% (+1)
LDM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 8% (+1)
RES: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Via @Moreincommon_, 16-19 Oct.
Changes w/ 9-12 Oct.
🌹 | Perran Moon MP (Camborne & Redruth) has been suspended by the Labour party pending an investigation into claims he tried to close his company without repaying a taxpayer-funded Covid loan.
🔶 | Lowest Lib Dem vote share (7%) since February 2024.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 30% (+1)
RFM: 24% (-1)
CON: 22% (+3)
GRN: 8% (-1)
LDM: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (-1)
Via @DeltapollUK, 16-19 Oct.
Changes w/ 11-14 Sep.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 30% (+1)
RFM: 24% (-1)
CON: 22% (+3)
GRN: 8% (-1)
LDM: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (-1)
Via @DeltapollUK, 16-19 Oct.
Changes w/ 11-14 Sep.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 27% (+3)
CON: 23% (=)
RFM: 22% (+1)
LDM: 11% (-1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
RES: 3% (+1)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Via @YouGov, 18-19 Oct.
Changes w/ 11-12 Oct.
◼️ | Restore Britain are set to run full slates in Council By-Elections for the first time in the coming weeks:
1st September to Today: 6/35 (17%)
w/c 19th October: 1/5 (20%)
w/c 26th October: 4/6 (67%)
w/c 2nd November: 1/1 (100%)
w/c 9th November: 6/6 (100%)
➡️ | Amanda Bland MSP (Central Scotland and Lothians West) has resigned from Reform and will now sit as an Independent.
Labour are now the 2nd party in Holyrood (17 seats), with Reform falling to 3rd (16 Seats).
There are 4 council by-elections to wet your psephological whistles this week:
🌹 Saron (Carmarthenshire)
🌍 Hertford Kingsmead (East Hertfordshire)
🌹 Calverley & Farsley (Leeds)
🙋 Grantham St Wulfram's (South Kesteven)
In this week's @NavigatePol weekly roundup, I looked into the most prolific names of our councillors...
📈 The most popular overall? Dave
➡️ The most Reform? Karl
🌹 The most Labour? Lynn
🌳 The most Tory? Roger
🔶 The most Lib Dem? Julian
🌍 The most Green? Natalie
MPs returned from conference recess this week, and @andyburnham wasted little time taking everyone back to 2016, reopening the Brexit argument with a podcast answer on Russian interference – just as preparations for November’s UK-EU summit get under way. The PM also welcomed Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to Downing Street, as Donald Trump appeared to lose interest in welcoming Ukraine anywhere. And for anyone who thought Parliament’s return meant the conference circuit was finally over, spare a thought for those colleagues still going at @theSNP in Aberdeen…
Head over to our website for your free Friday Weekly Roundup brought to you in partnership with @electionmapsuk
Aggregate Result of the 138 Council By-Elections Since the 2026 Local Elections:
RFM: 26 (+5) | 22% (+10)
LAB: 26 (-1) | 19% (-3)
CON: 25 (-4) | 18% (-2)
LDM: 24 (+5) | 14% (+1)
GRN: 16 (+3) | 14% (-2)
PLC: 10 (-1) | 3% (+1)
Ind: 5 (-6) | 4% (-3)
SNP: 4 (+1) | 3% (-2)
Loc: 2 (-2) | 1% (-1)
electionmaps.uk/council-by-e…
Shepshed (Leicestershire) Council By-Election Result:
🌹 LAB: 32.8% (+14.9)
➡️ RFM: 31.3% (-13.6)
🌳 CON: 23.1% (-2.4)
◼️ RES: 6.4% (New)
🔶 LDM: 3.2% (-3.4)
🌍 GRN: 3.2% (-1.9)
Labour GAIN from Reform UK.
Changes w/ 2025.
Salisbury Milford (Wiltshire) Council By-Election Result:
🔶 LDM: 45.6% (+1.8)
🌳 CON: 36.4% (+12.4)
➡️ RFM: 11.4% (-6.7)
🌹 LAB: 6.6% (-2.1)
No GRN (-5.4) as previous.
Liberal Democrat HOLD.
Changes w/ 2025.
Bradninch (Mid Devon) Council By-Election Result:
🔶 LDM: 72.6% (-9.6)
➡️ RFM: 13.9% (New)
🌳 CON: 5.6% (-0.6)
🌹 LAB: 4.7% (-6.9)
🌍 GRN: 3.2% (New)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.
Change w/ 2023.
Higher Kinnerton (Flintshire) Council By-Election Result:
🏘️ FPV: 91.3%
🌳 CON: 3.4%
➡️ RFM: 3.4%
🏰 HER: 1.6%
🙋 Ind: 0.3%
Flintshire People's Voice GAIN from Independent (elected unopposed in 2022).
Holyrood Voting Intention:
Constituency:
SNP: 36% (-2)
LAB: 21% (+2)
RFM: 15% (-1)
CON: 12% (=)
LDM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 3% (=)
Regional:
SNP: 30% (+3)
LAB: 20% (+4)
RFM: 17% (=)
CON: 13% (-1)
LDM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 7% (-7)
Via @Moreincommon_, 9-13 Oct.
Changes w/ 2026 Election.
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
SNP: 30% (-1)
LAB: 24% (+7)
RFM: 16% (-5)
CON: 13% (+2)
LDM: 8% (-3)
RES: 5% (New)
GRN: 3% (-3)
Via @Moreincommon_, 9-13 Oct.
Changes w/ 21 Aug - 1 Sep 2025.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 25% (=)
RFM: 22% (-1)
CON: 22% (+2)
GRN: 11% (=)
LDM: 10% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @FindoutnowUK, 14 Oct.
Changes w/ 7 Oct.