Eslo

On the burrito discourse... Here is the price from 2006 to 2026 of a large finished chicken burrito and a large finished beef burrito. The burritos contain 8 ounces of meat, 1/2 cup of rice, 3 oz of beans, 2 ounces of cheese, 2 ounce of lettuce, 2 ounces of salsa, 1 ounce of sour cream, and a 71 gram tortilla. This calculation assumes the following: The beef used is 88/12. The beef retains 75% of its raw weight when drained and cooked. The chicken retains 75% of its raw weight when cooked. 1 pound dry rice makes 7.5 cups cooked. Beans weigh ~2.5x when soaked/cooked. Nutritional profiles Beef Burrito Calories: 1,212 kcal Protein: 88.0 g Carbs: 86.6 g Fat: 54.8 g Chicken Burrito Calories: 1,124 kcal Protein: 100.8 g Carbs: 86.6 g Fat: 38.7 g Prices/Income 2006 Beef burrito: $2.75 Chicken burrito: $3.44 First decile weekly earnings: $318 First quartile weekly earnings: $445 Median weekly earnings: $662 2026 Beef burrito: $6.73 (+144.81%) Chicken burrito: $4.97 (+44.56%) First decile weekly earnings: $642 (+101.89%) First quartile weekly earnings: $850 (+91.01%) Median weekly earnings: $1,258 (+90.03%) Affordability Beef Burrito 2006 % of first decile weekly earnings: 0.85% % of first quartile weekly earnings: 0.61% % of median weekly earnings: 0.41% 2026 % of first decile weekly earnings: 1.04% (+21.62%) % of first quartile weekly earnings: 0.78% (+28.54%) % of median weekly earnings: 0.53% (+29.2%) Chicken Burrito 2006 % of first decile weekly earnings: 1.08% % of first quartile weekly earnings: 0.77% % of median weekly earnings: 0.52% 2026 % of first decile weekly earnings: 0.76% (-29.26%) % of first quartile weekly earnings: 0.58% (-25.23%) % of median weekly earnings: 0.39% (-24.84%) In other words, a beef burrito today is as affordable as a chicken burrito in 2006, and a chicken burrito today is 5-11% more affordable in real terms than a beef burrito in 2006. Long story short... beef producers weren't more benevolent than chicken producers in 2006, and beef producers aren't more greedy than chicken producers in 2026. US beef production has experienced significant supply shocks over the last 15 years. So until herd sizes recover, demand decreases, tariffs are reduced, or tariff-rate quotas are expanded, beef prices are unlikely to go down. As for restaurant prices, let’s use Chipotle as a standard. (Note that Chipotle prices vary significantly, largely based on local wages, energy costs, and volume of sales, I am just giving my best assessment based off of old receipts from people online) Why have Chipotle beef (steak) burritos increased so much? According to their financial statements, they have consistently identified beef costs and wages as major factors. But is that true? Let’s compare to existing economic data. From old receipts found online, we can construct a rough price history and index. Here are the start and end points: Year: 2007 Item: Steak burrito Price: $5.75 Index: 100 Year: 2025 Item: Steak burrito Price: $11.80 Index: 205.2 Now compare that with FRED data. From 2007 to 2025, restaurant hourly compensation increased roughly 91%, while wholesale beef prices increased roughly 107%. Over the same period, the observed Chipotle steak burrito price increased roughly 105.2%. Put simply, Chipotle’s steak burrito price increase was almost identical to the increase in wholesale beef prices. Rent, utilities, packaging, other ingredients, and margins matter too. But the increase is consistent with higher beef and labor costs being major drivers. What if we compare to a chicken burrito? A chicken burrito rose from $5.60 in 2007 to $9.75 in 2025 (+74%), compared with 105% for steak. Since the two products share nearly all of the same operating costs, the larger increase for steak is consistent with beef-specific supply pressures. As explained before, US beef supply is currently constrained. An alternate reality in which chipotle burritos are cheaper, is an alternate reality in which Chipotle workers likely make a fair amount less. The correct approach to certain things becoming more unaffordable is not to broadly blame everything, like food, which has generally become more affordable relative to earnings. The right move is to find where per-item inflation has outpaced wages, especially those at the lower end of the scale, and analyze the reasons for those. For steak burritos, it is largely the beef supply. The idea should generally be to enact policies that encourage supply to increase. You cannot continue to subsidize demand in hopes that prices will go down - they won't. Anyways, that's my two cents. The answer is freer markets where possible, not price controls or subsidized demand.