ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics) header
ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics) profile picture

ETM Analytics

@etmanalytics

Global macro and financial market intelligence for professional traders and asset managers. Independent macro heretics | Est. 2004

 South Africa, United States
etmanalytics.com
Joined September 2011
  • Tweets1K
  • Following14
  • Followers1.8K
129Media
Photo by ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)Photo by ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)Photo by ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)Photo by ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)Photo by ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)Photo by ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)Photo by ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)Photo by ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)Photo by ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)Photo by ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
Big shift in market implied rates outlook. Risk is for a 25 bpt hike this Thursday at the South African Reserve Bank MPC #bank #MPC #interestrates
Image from ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
2
Global bonds facing the worst year in a decade, African bonds remain resilient. For more insight on this topic see ETM's latest strategy note at etmanalytics.com. #bonds #fixedincome #africa #marketstrategy
Image from ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
1
1
Image from ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
1
1
The fears surrounding Chinese property giant Evergrande have hit emerging markets and risk assets hard. ETM remains focused on the fall out and will unpack the impact to the markets it covers as new insights and information becomes available. etmanalytics.com
Image from ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
SA Retail sales hit hard in July, reflecting looting and pessimistic consumer confidence see etmanalytics.com for full breakdown
Image from ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
The following chart shows the rise in shipping costs. Corporates struggle with both the logistical bottlenecks and the rising shipping rates. How does this impact inflation and longer term price pressures Talk to us, etmanalytics.com
Image from ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
Out Today: The South Africa Q3 TransUnion Consumer Credit Index. transunion.co.za/resources/t… Index remained weak in Q3 on the back of weak income growth estimates and elevated defaults. Payment holidays and low rates limiting credit distress for now.
1
This is getting widely shared with nearly 15,000 views across various platforms in 48 hours. Watch 👇 The Definitive SA Lockdown Presentation youtube.com/watch?v=PKF6lq6z…
1
22
3
43
Advocates for lockdown failed to consider that the economy is our most important life-support system – shutting it down does grave harm to life, health and human well-being. ETM supports Business for Ending Lockdown (B4EL). endlockdown.co.za/
5
11
Chart of the week: Tracking South African government revenue and spending. Money in, money out. Revenue problem or spending problem?
Image from ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
26
137
53
149
The same data but looked at in another way. Annualised deficit in ZAR billion. Few things as permanent as a temporary government deficit.
Image from ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
4
23
4
38
The @TransUnionSA Consumer Credit Index for Q2 2020 is out today: transunion.co.za/resources/t… The result may seem surprisingly good given COV19 lockdown, but much more hardship is expected in Q3.
Image from ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
1
3
2
more replies
"New defaults increased by an estimated 21% from Q2 2019 after rising 5% y/y in Q1. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the rate of new defaults increased by 11% during the quarter, the highest rate on record since 2006."
Image from ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
Image from ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
Image from ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
1
1
1
"Repayment holidays are ending in Q3. Some credit providers will need to restructure terms of loans to further mitigate consumer burdens." "...costs will escalate as life slowly gets back to normal."
Image from ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
2
1
Register below for today's webinar (at 11:00 SA time) where I will talk with Andile Group CEO Andries Brink on 'The Race between Innovation and Plunder.' Register: andile.zoom.us/webinar/regis…
Image from Russell Lamberti (@RussLamberti)
2
10
Chart of the week: Lockdown stringency vs GDP growth - Q1 2020.
Image from ETM Analytics (@etmanalytics)
4
1
6
Thanks John. The April PMI number surprised us. @RussLamberti did the necessary digging. Mystery solved. US PMI suffers from the same anomaly - beware!
You’re unable to view this Post because this account owner limits who can view their Posts. Learn more
1
Some responses to this thread. 1. The economic losses are implicitly IN ADDITION to those expected from a global recession. We shd make that explicit in the paper, thanks. We estimate lockdown to be around 3-5x worse for GDP than non-lockdown (depending on duration).
Darren Olivier (@darren_olivier) profile pictureDarren Olivier@darren_olivier5 May 2020
No doubt this is going to spread quickly, but you should pause before accepting it at face value & sharing it. There are open questions that the authors have not addressed. e.g. 1. They’ve assumed that all economic harm is from the lock down, ignoring the global recession. 1/
1
12
24
For those who believe that the lockdown should continue, please read through the following article carefully. Then decide whether you indeed believe that destructing the economy serves our objectives as a country businesslive.co.za/amp/fm/fe…
1
Load more