New & Credible Report on the Gaza Death Toll 75,200 violent deaths, 8,540 indirect deaths from Oct 2023 to Jan 2025. This estimate is based on a new methodology that hasn't yet been used in Gaza. The Gaza Mortality Survey interviewed people from 2,000 households across the Strip and used that to calculate the average number of deaths per household since October 7th. They go into much more detail about their methodology and how they account for potential biases (link below). Beyond the strength of the methodology itself, what makes this report especially important is that it aligns perfectly with the conclusions many of us have had since the start of Israel's operation. The Gaza Ministry of Health is underreporting fatalities Prior to this report, these conclusions were based on the following logic: 1. The MoH provides a baseline The MoH data is publicly available for scrutiny, and no fraud has been found. This data is also verifiable by Israel, as they have access to the Palestinian Population registry. They have not publicly challenged this data, and an IDF whistleblower has acknowledged that the IDF relies on it 2. Given the conditions in Gaza, there’s no way the MoH can track every death. Not everyone is being brought to a hospital or reported killed. 3. The MoH list doesn't include indirect deaths (malnutrition, disease, etc.). We know this because had they been doing so, we'd see an unusual spike in data amongst the elderly and babies. This reasoning was the basis for an analysis I wrote on the death toll back in October 2024 (link below). Additionally, just two weeks ago, it was discovered by @History__Speaks that the MoH removed thousands of people killed from violent deaths simply because they couldn't confirm their cause of death. (link below) What this new report reinforces is that both claims that the MoH is exaggerating and that claims that many hundreds of thousands of Gazans have been killed are false. The bottom line: In Gaza, a higher % of the civilian population has been violently killed than in any other instance of violence in the 21st century. What makes this toll even more horrific is that Israel has very little to show for it. Hamas still controls around half of Gaza, and hostages are still left rotting in tunnels. An unimaginable loss of life, with very little to show. Huge credit for putting out this report: @Michael_Spagat, Jon Pedersen, @KShikaki, Michael Robbins, Eran Bendavid, @HavardHegre, Debarati Guha-Sapir.