using prediction markets to trade
Joined April 2015
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i have provided an annualized 30% return over 5 years. i saw 3 crashes - covid 2020, biden 2022 interest hike, trump liberation day 2025. through all of them i survived because i could predict macro using prediction markets. i don’t want to show the dollar amount but it is bigger than your mom’s wallet. don’t call me a retail investor or i’ll get angry.
Arav Dadani retweeted
A CENTCOM official tells Faytuks Network that the US Air Force struck a missile launcher on Qeshm Island ealier tonight after Iran launched missiles from the area.
"This is an area we've been watching over the last week, and we were prepared to act in a defensive manner."
Arav Dadani retweeted
The closest Dominos and Papa Johns to the Pentagon are reporting higher than usual traffic.
Freddie's beach bar is reporting abnormally high traffic tonight.
As of 7:20pm ET
Arav Dadani retweeted
One of the last occasions on which President Trump and CENTCOM Adm. Brad Cooper met was February 26, about 48 hours before the start of Operation Epic Fury.
It should also be noted that Cooper is perhaps Trump's most important advisors, the U.S. President almost always puts his advice into practice, as was the case during their last meeting in July.
On that specific occasion, Cooper had advised Trump to halt the bombing campaign against southern Iran, intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, given that the strikes had been ineffective for about two weeks.
For this reason, it is highly likely that whatever advice Cooper may have given Trump during today's meeting will be implemented by him.
Arav Dadani retweeted
Unverified footage shows two commercial vessels burning in the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz after being targeted by Iran.
It is unknown if they hit naval mines or were struck by anti-ship missiles.
options will be always supreme to perps
the best way to lever up or down
Got sent this article by my fren and defi/options enthusiast @panterafii
Thanks for including @GammaSwapLabs in the crypto options market map btw @Decentralisedco, it's a great article. Some thoughts:
TL;DR: Options solve problems perps can't. Unlike perps, options aren't path-dependent, meaning traders can be right on direction without getting liquidated along the way. Up to 62% of winning 20x BTC perp trades would have been liquidated first over 180 days.
Yet on-chain options are just 0.8% of perp DEX volume, compared to 3x futures contract volume in TradFi.
The article argues that portfolio margin and deeper perp liquidity can make options cheaper to hedge and more capital-efficient for market makers, unlocking adoption.
One interesting finding: outside BTC and ETH, altcoin options have virtually no liquidity. Selling vanilla options exposes MMs to potentially unbounded risk, compounded by high volatility and limited hedging liquidity.
This is where I think binary options like GammaSwap V2 have an edge.
Binaries are effectively bounded call spreads. MMs know their maximum loss upfront, making them easier to underwrite, even on long-tail assets. Buyers also benefit from no path dependence.
My thesis: Binaries will capture 0DTE expirations and long-tail assets, while vanilla options will dominate larger, longer-dated trades on major assets.
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Arav Dadani retweeted
Game theory teaches that if you have an edge over other players, you must shut up about it. Don't announce you have the winning hand unless that's the way you win. Ed Thorp would only bet when math was on his side: he invented card counting in blackjack and his hedge fund had 20% returns over 20yrs with only 3 months down. (He invented a formula for option pricing that he never publicized; when others did, they got a Nobel prize).
Buffett thought the same way; when he felt out of touch with the game, he closed his partnership in 1969. These Masters go around teaching how they did it, but they know no one can compete with them. Game selection is as important as skill, and it can't be taught in a one-hour speech. "If 30 mins into a poker game you don't know who the patsy is, you are the patsy"
Arav Dadani retweeted
Trump says we may do another operation against Iran, doubts Iran will say ‘let’s get down to business’
"We may do another little Epic Fury, or they'll agree."
"If they're smart, they'll just say, 'let's get down to business.' But, you know, I doubt they'll do that because perhaps they're not smart."
we will see a massive drawdown on memory chips... quote me on it. it is cyclical. bullish longterm tho.
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oil is the biggest driver of this... but dividends have never been a good idea
a) causes tax event
b) reduces cash from the company hindering growth
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agents trading money is the stupidest thing ever
as long as we are taxed and charged for every transaction it is NEGATIVE EV to trade more
trade less... beat the market
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my prediction 1 and 2 have come out correct
$SPCX will soon merge with tesla .... making all 3 of my prediction correct
substack.com/home/post/p-201…
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onions are important for the future....
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.” teapaw.org/i/trending/21121889132…
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