Founder @truflation Real-time on-chain inflation - Calling out the narratives Governments tell us about prices.
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Joined September 2024
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New York’s $36B attack on Kalshi isn’t about “protecting consumers." Who’s allowed to turn information into economic value and taxing participation in the process. Why prediction markets are not casinos, how they function as information infrastructure.
Before the number lands: what will Tesla report for non-GAAP EPS?
The Truflation Predict market currently centers near $0.45, almost exactly in line with analyst consensus. The leading displayed bucket is $0.39–$0.51.
Make your call 👇
predict.truflation.com/marke…
Stefan Rust retweeted
Elon said he’ll give one SpaceX share to every American kid next year. Rough math:
~72 million kids under 18
~$146 per share (recent SPCX price)
Total gift: about $10.5 billion worth of stock.
First of many. 🚀
(Numbers are estimates based on Census child population trends and current public trading price)
1/ Five days after BLS printed 3.7%. @truflation real-time US inflation has crossed 3%.
US CPI: 3.07% YoY (18 Oct).
BLS September: 3.7%. Divergence Index: −0.63.
2/ The path after the print:
12 Oct 2.90%
14 Oct 2.91%
15 Oct 2.93%
16 Oct 3.09% (+16 bp)
17 Oct 3.08%
18 Oct 3.07%
Plateau broke. One big step, then a two-day fade.
Stefan Rust retweeted
Apart from electric cars, internet payments, Starlink, AI, flying cars, what has @elonmusk ever done for us??
Yes yes. Boring tunnels. Neuralink.
Self-landing rockets to make humanity interplanetary.
That goes without saying.
But apart from that?!
Crytpovolution va Bankopocolypse thanks to AI!
What Jordi lays out in the thread below is related to the reason this new technology has the ability to give more power to the US Treasury over the Fed.
Bc up until now, the US Gov needed the banks for both the distribution & remittance functions of the monetary system itself.
But that is becoming increasingly antiquated.
And we discuss this very issue in our recent piece "Disparate Housewives" 👇
research.santiagocapital.com
1/ Live US inflation just jumped 40 bp in four days. @truflation US CPI: 2.92%. Last week it was 2.52%. The gap to the August BLS print went from 88 bp to 48 bp.
5/ For weeks the live read said the Fed hiked into an inflation number that was already mid-2s. That argument just got weaker. Live is still under official. It's no longer a full point under.
6/ September CPI prints Oct 14. Nine days. If the live climb holds, the gap closes from our side, not from BLS's.
You can get the BLS read 24 hours in advance. truflation.com/t-1
True inflation caused by bad policies from incompetent politicians
🇪🇺 European natural gas prices are starting to look absolutely brutal.
January: ~€28/MWh
Now: ~€74/MWh
That’s roughly a 160% increase in nine months, with Europe heading toward winter and the benchmark gas price already sitting near levels nobody wanted to see again.
Winter hasn’t even started yet 💀
Source: ICE / Writer: Sol
