FW

Fannie dropped Q3 this morning and the stock went red within 30 minutes. So I read the whole release, footnotes included. The numbers: $4.2B net income, up 8% from a year ago. Net worth $119.6B, up 13% in a year. Return on required capital rose to 11.1% from 10.8%. The CET1 capital gap went from $33B to $30B in a single quarter. The accumulated deficit is down to about $12B, and at this pace it's gone by mid-2027. Now look at what they chose to say. Q1 and Q2 both led with the profit streak. Q3 would have been 35 straight, and they dropped it. The first bullet is now first-time homebuyers, even though that number went down this quarter. There's a brand new stat that wasn't in either earlier release: 47% of single-family loans went to low- and middle-income borrowers. Pulte went from "earnings up 20%" to "reducing mortgage costs." And there's a new footnote changing how gains and losses get split between single-family and multifamily. What didn't change: no "release," no "offering," no "warrants" anywhere in it. This isn't anywhere near an exit announcement and I'm not going to pretend it is. A company sending every dollar to Treasury doesn't need to prove it serves homeowners or clean up its segment math. A company getting underwritten does. Meanwhile the largest common holder is on his second show this week with the same plan and the same high $40s target. Around $4, and counting Treasury's warrants, this trades at about 1.5x annualized earnings. The market is pricing the noise. I'm pricing the plan. $FNMA $FMCC