High intelligence working on Super Intelligence. Independent applied research in intelligent systems in Melbourne.
Melbourne, Australia
Joined March 2009
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Flink Labs retweeted
In Flanders fields, the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.
We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie,
In Flanders fields.
Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.
This!
[read about what’s happening with AI]
ME: Wow we’re actually legit fucked this is so bad.
[go outside]
ME: Wait those people are all acting like nothing unusual is happening. Maybe I was just in a paranoid bubble? Yeah it must be that. Phew.
[read more about what’s happening with AI]
ME: Wait no we ARE fucked. Shit. It’s all those people outside who are in a delusional bubble.
[go outside]
ME: Wait...
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Flink Labs retweeted
I'm split into two people. One person is planning to have kids, is gonna publish a book, saves money, because it believes in a future. The other person is living hard, spending down money, and doing psychedelics, because it believes everyone is going to be dead in three years.
Flink Labs retweeted
Comme chaque année pour le #11novembre, je remets cette excellente animation du front de l’ouest pendant la Première Guerre mondiale par carto1418.fr/ :
Flink Labs retweeted
As we move towards 11am on the 11th of November tomorrow. This is the one symbolic image that sums it up for me 🙏
Flink Labs retweeted
Unfortunately, it seems like the intelligence explosion will be happening in 2027 after all. Most of this post analyzes the new METR report (though other sources of evidence are also important). If they’re right, that implies an AI-driven acceleration that is 5 months ahead of the AI 2027 scenario. I am scared, sad, and angry. blog.aifutures.org/p/q35-tim…
Flink Labs retweeted
An economist and a futurist walk into a bar.
The economist takes a sip of his drink. "Ugh, if only people understood basic economics. High-skilled immigration alone would do wonders for US growth."
Futurist: "Oh yeah? Say 100 million immigrants moved to the US, each matching the best human experts in every economically relevant field. Big deal?"
Economist: "Massive. Transformative."
Futurist: "What if they also worked longer hours and faster than any American?"
Economist: "Even better."
Futurist: "What if they were extremely frugal — consuming only the bare minimum needed to keep working?"
Economist: "A near-100% savings rate? Better still!"
Futurist: "What if they were very clumsy and physically weak, so they could only do some kinds of work?"
Economist: "They could still do all cognitive labor — that's over half all wages! Somewhat less good, sure. Still transformative."
Futurist: "What if their skin was grey, almost metallic, from some kind of accident?"
Economist: "Who cares?!"
Futurist: "What if they were AIs?"
Economist: "3% growth per year, tops. There'd be bottlenecks. Honestly, the people predicting explosive growth from AI should learn some economics."
Flink Labs retweeted
asked my russian gf (who is way out of my league) if she is secretly a spy after the jensen news
she laughed hysterically for a few, paused, and then said:
"you trade animal coins with retarded ppl on the internet"
somehow this is even worse than if she were a kgb agent
On this day, one day before WWI ended, my great grand father, Edwin Benner, died in France. Every year I remember his sacrifice and imagine how his wife, with my young grandmother, felt when the war ended, hope growing that her husband would return. Lest we forget.
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Flink Labs retweeted
At the going down the sun and in the morning, We will remember them.
ALT A black and white historical image shows a group of soldiers walking through a battlefield. Overlaid is a large red poppy with the words "LEST WE FORGET" in the center. Below, "REMEMBRANCE SUNDAY 2026" is written. A crest is at the top of the image.
Flink Labs retweeted
I've summarized where things stand at the AI frontier:
- Unreleased models (Anthropic's Models 3 and 4) are now half-way between AI2027's Agents-1 and 2 (graphs fixed for the bug flagged by the AI2027 authors). @DKokotajlo please let me know if I missed something.
- We're right on track with AI2027's prediction of an automated coder (AC) for April 2027, wild. Public models are now massively lagging unreleased models (1 day vs. 1 week of autonomous high-quality work). Fuelled by RSI, the gap is huge and growing.
- This trajectory, if continued, means a world-changing intelligence explosion in 2027, so the public needs to know. I highly recommend reading more on the topic to grasp what's coming.
I think this is a very common view amoung people in AI
Spoke to an Anthropic employee today. They have a near-100% p(doom), but they think the only chance of survival is that they're somehow completely wrong about alignment and it turns out to be solvable, and the only way to get there is by accelerating capabilities as fast as possible. They were much more confident that humanity would never have the political will to do what needs to be done to stop ASI development than that alignment would be solved, even though they think alignment will almost certainly not be solved
They have not called their elected representatives to inform them that this is what they believe
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Flink Labs retweeted
does pauseai and stopai imply the existence of playai, recordai, ejectai, volumeupai, volumedownai, etc
Flink Labs retweeted
Extraordinary interventions, even more so than extraordinary claims, need extraordinary evidence.
If Anthropic's claims (and those of OpenAI et al) are true, then it requires expediting extremely challenging policy interventions that are barely in the overton window if at all, and are mostly pretty under-worked out (controls on RSI or on proxies that are robust while not causing massive splash damage to companies' ability to operate, 'hard' international agreements to enforce them in every jurisdiction that matters).
And it requires expediting some pretty unpalatable-to-most plans of last resort to at least be in place and ready to go (kill switches, other means of shutting down models or robustly isolating companies with models on the verge of loss of control).
Maybe that can be achieved with much more information shared in a highly controlled way with sufficiently qualified and security-cleared people in the relevant governments. But we don't have that yet, and even getting there I think will require a lot of ongoing sense-making and pressure applied that is supported by evidence from the broader independent expert community that governments draw on.
And we don't have that.
It's now November 2026. METR and Anthropic's analyses suggest the potential for irreversible and destabilising thresholds to be passed as early as some point in 2027. Something needs to change, urgently.
This has to be the worst call/post by an MP on AI I have seen. Disingenuous use of our of date trial as Anthropic sees 2x improvment in development due to AI
In a randomised trial, software developers using AI took 19% longer to complete tasks. Yet they believed AI had made them 20% faster.
At the ‘Evidence in Action’ event, I argued for a government that tests what works, and saves money by learning from the results. ministers.treasury.gov.au/mi… #randomistas
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The 19%/20% figures are from a July 2025 METR study of experienced open-source developers using early-2025 AI tools, which the authors describe as an outdated snapshot; a 2026 follow-up found some evidence for speedup with newer tools.
metr.org/blog/2025-07-1…
metr.org/blog/2026-02-2…
arxiv.org/abs/2507.09089
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Flink Labs retweeted
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of recursive self-improvement, it was the age of data center bans, it was the epoch of intelligence explosions, it was the epoch of local backlash, it was the season of acceleration, it was the season of red tape, it was the spring of superintelligence, it was the winter of compute.
Flink Labs retweeted
It’s pretty clear we are headed here to catastrophe.
Massive job losses coming to corporates.
Everyone will need to have agency. Become an entrepreneur.
Great afternoon adventure for young me. My second fave super computer, first computer I programmed on and war games vibes.
