Not a thought leader, but I get lucky sometimes. Plumber, 2013 / Farmer, 2020 / Washed, 2026.
Joined November 2017
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The best buys never feel good.
The best sells always give you pause.
Your counterparty isn’t just the person on the other side of the trade.
It’s also yourself.
Just came outta Street Fighter IMAX.. Tried to not look at any reviews before the movie, had 14 friends join me.. I knew it'd be kitsche, but the pacing of this movie, acting, lines, wtf.. I've never came out of a movie feeling confident it was arguably the worst I've ever paid for, but pretty sure this one is it.
Quick update on $CHIP.
Been posting about this one since Sept as a strong candidate for mid-cap rotation and one I thought deserving of consideration..
Market seems to have reacted favorably to David's thoughts published today on how value accrues to $CHIP as the underlying business scales.
I won't go into it too much here, but here's his post: xitter.cf/0xZergs/status/2108874…
The strength of today's impulse definitely caught me by surprise, clearing the ~$0.06 pivot mentioned that's capped price though 2026, now up ~50% from our green zone and a crazy 30%+ daily.
If you're not in already, patience will be rewarding.. A backtest into the low $0.06s that holds the vol shelf would offer pretty compelling R/R, which imo, sets this up for a chance at ATHs.
Lots of tailwinds here, esp given the news today. I really think this is a strong candidate for mid-term positioning and will feel obvious in hindsight.
Pretty meaningful change in structure, the second leg will be fun..
Been devving a lot, but back more here next week.
$CHIP looks pretty good here, looks primed up to the 1D.
Has spent most of the last month basing below ~$0.06 after initial rejection and starting to push outta local range again.
~15–20% upside back to the highs, nice R/R into ~$0.06 and if that flips, this setup has a chance to ATHs and price discovery imo.
Keep an eye on the rotations.. While the CT favs begin consolidating, there's a cohort that may just be starting to break out and this one might be one of them.
Still "devving" so haven't had much time for research, so just sharing my shitty charts and watchlist with ya for time being.
Ouff, what happened to the ethereum:0x4e67db19044549ff420860834c91b45bad298722 chart?
No position, but just saw some murder candles.
$CHIP looks pretty good here, looks primed up to the 1D.
Has spent most of the last month basing below ~$0.06 after initial rejection and starting to push outta local range again.
~15–20% upside back to the highs, nice R/R into ~$0.06 and if that flips, this setup has a chance to ATHs and price discovery imo.
Keep an eye on the rotations.. While the CT favs begin consolidating, there's a cohort that may just be starting to break out and this one might be one of them.
Still "devving" so haven't had much time for research, so just sharing my shitty charts and watchlist with ya for time being.
$CHIP is starting to look quite nice..
USD.AI continues to grow MoM, now at ~$646M TVL, with roughly ~$504M deployed into the loan book.
One of the more overlooked mids that fits the current meta perfectly + has one of the more novel underlying business models in crypto.
Among a handful of alts on my watchlist that I think can accelerate if rotations comes around.
Pullback near the green box is a strong add candidate.
The ethereum:0x7cf9a80db3b29ee8efe3710aadb7b95270572d47 3D looks hella good..
Months of basing around the lows, followed by the strongest expansion it's seen and now pushing directly into the HTF trend / prior breakdown area.
Still needs acceptance around ~$0.11–0.12, but looking good for a flip here so far. Get through this area and the next few major nodes above look within reach, esp given the catalysts over the coming months..
TA-wise, this is one of the cleaner setups at the moment, but let's see where we consolidate after a strong move like this.
fomozaurus 🦖 retweeted
What Nillion Dusk (0x4455534b) unlocks when it goes live tomorrow:
Sell if ETH loses 2,400, with a stop nobody can see, so nobody can hunt it
Buy LINK, or any ERC-20 token, the second BTC breaks 90k
Ladder sealed ETH buys at 2,500, 2,300 and 2,100, each one invisible until it fires
Take profit when BTC hits 100k without telegraphing your exit to the whole chain
Buy the AAVE dip the moment ETH flushes below 2,300
Top up collateral if BTC slips under 80k, before the liquidation bot finds you
Seal a month of Monday DCA buys with no bot, no server and no need to be awake
Rebalance a treasury without the market seeing the levels first
Launch a token snipers can't snipe, every buy sealed until the launch block, nothing to read and nothing to outrun
Bid on an NFT without showing your max. It drops in at the close, so nobody can walk the price up to it
Let agents bid for compute in sealed auctions that all open at the same instant
Give your agent a dead-man switch: miss a check-in and its positions unwind themselves
Cut an OTC deal where both legs open together, nobody goes first
Cast a DAO vote that stays sealed until voting closes, so there's no bandwagon to join
Seal the call "ETH 3k by month end" and let it open itself on the 31st, win or lose, receipts included
Drop an embargoed announcement that publishes itself to the minute
Vest or unlock tokens on a set date without anyone pressing a button
All of it sealed until it fires, and it fires on its own
That's just price and time triggers. Once Nightside lets anything the nodes can verify pull the trigger, this list goes parabolic
Expecting fireworks on $ETHFI, $WLD and $TAO if we get a bullish week.
Here are some of your mid-cap rotation candidates.
You're welcome.
There's more than a handful of mids tapping on two-year trendline resistance like this.
$ETHFI, $TAO and ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 to name a few..
The proposition for broader low caps remains unattractive to me when mids have a chance to breakout on setups that have taken years to develop.
No active positions in these right now beyond some spot, just monitoring..
ethereum:0x7cf9a80db3b29ee8efe3710aadb7b95270572d47 impulse now in progress, up around ~15%+ on a choppy day like today and trying to breakout.
Listed across Binance + other T1 CEXs and still sitting around ~$50M circ MC.
Five years of building + Dusk and Covenants going live and arguably the biggest product rollout in its history happening over the next half year.
See past posts for the detailed breakdown, but think this is one of the more overlooked mids relative to what's on the horizon.
Not exactly the same, but a great comp is $ZAMA in August–September before the Multicoin shill.
There's great value and R/R in betting on teams transitioning out of the early build stage and into traction + growth, with years of accumulated knowledge, BD and product development already behind them.
ethereum:0x7cf9a80db3b29ee8efe3710aadb7b95270572d47 looking good here again, starting to print a meme A&E, building base around the low $0.08s after retrace and has defended demand despite market weakness.
Loaded catalysts in coming months with Dusk and Covenants, followed by..
- Darkfall (Covenants across EVM chains)
- Skyglow (Cross-chain conditions + settlement)
- Nightside (Arbitrary conditions from any feed)
I've added at these levels and will continue to strategically. Conviction that this will be a stalwart outperformer, fundamentally sitting at the intersection of AI + privacy. Private compute feels less like a theoretical problem today and more like legit infra being validated in real time.
World Computer meets the Blind Computer.
$CHIP is starting to look quite nice..
USD.AI continues to grow MoM, now at ~$646M TVL, with roughly ~$504M deployed into the loan book.
One of the more overlooked mids that fits the current meta perfectly + has one of the more novel underlying business models in crypto.
Among a handful of alts on my watchlist that I think can accelerate if rotations comes around.
Pullback near the green box is a strong add candidate.
I think $CHIP have one of the more overlooked business models in AI x crypto.
Much like $GRASS, the actual business goes beyond crypto and, IMO, sits in a pretty durable spot if hyperscaler capex, hardware churn and demand for compute continue anywhere near this pace.
Since their first ~$620K GPU-backed financing roughly a year ago, they've scaled remarkably fast to ~$611M deposited while reporting $14.3M in YTD revenue and a ~$30M annualized Q2 run-rate. Their June recap also cited $44.6M in protocol ARR (a bit confused by this part, but impressive).
They also just announced their largest financing in a $128.9M facility for 32 NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 systems backed by a multi-year contract with an investment-grade counterparty.
Why is this needed? Well, GPUs have traditionally been awkward assets for lenders because they depreciate quickly, hardware cycles move fast and underwriting them requires understanding the underlying compute economics.
ATM, only ~20% of $CHIP is circulating today, so the ~$480M FDV and eventual supply overhang are definitely major talking points, but the first major cliff isn't until April 2027, leaving a decent window to grow into the val before dilution matters.
I think this has a strong case for finding its way into everyone's rotation pretty soon. It sits at the intersection of AI capex, compute demand and has real revenue while the underlying business seems to be scaling fast.
Low float, real revs, narratively fitting, strong moat.
$ZEC bouncing off 4H 200EMA after bleeding out from the last impulse. Still below local downtrend, but momentum feels like it's just about reset + sell pressure looks muted around here.
We've been slammed down more than a few times over the past two weeks from BTC and ETH cuckery, but both are still respecting their ranges and frankly looking perky after Sunday futures open at 6pm ET, bouncing off HVNs; in turn, both $HYPE and $ZEC are starting to look interesting up to 12H.
If you're still sidelined, worth paying attention here imo, both already ~20% off highs. I didn't quite get the low $80s for sizing spot for HYPE, but if the bellwethers start looking good for continuation, you shouldn't make this too complicated. Most of your positioning and time should be spent playing what's worked until (if) that changes.
Beyond the obvious handful, my watchlist consists of mostly revenue generating mids and will concentrate most liquidity into them.
Just one more thing here.. It's very possible BTC + ETH get slammed back down, so don't chase anything. This isn't the environment for playing breakouts. If they do backtest HVN, you might get filled.
It's boring right now for the most part, but being patient here until environment is more fervent for risk will be rewarding.
ethereum:0x7cf9a80db3b29ee8efe3710aadb7b95270572d47 looking good here again, starting to print a meme A&E, building base around the low $0.08s after retrace and has defended demand despite market weakness.
Loaded catalysts in coming months with Dusk and Covenants, followed by..
- Darkfall (Covenants across EVM chains)
- Skyglow (Cross-chain conditions + settlement)
- Nightside (Arbitrary conditions from any feed)
I've added at these levels and will continue to strategically. Conviction that this will be a stalwart outperformer, fundamentally sitting at the intersection of AI + privacy. Private compute feels less like a theoretical problem today and more like legit infra being validated in real time.
World Computer meets the Blind Computer.
Since everyone is sharing their Pokemon grails, gonna share one of mine from the 25th anniversary that's a bit different..
Baccarat x Fragment x Pokemon Pickachu crystal statue, limited to 25 in the world, designed by Hiroshi Fujiwara.
12 inches tall, 18 lbs and built by artisans in France.
In hindsight, I shoud've just unloaded this onto cards, but remains one of my fav possessions.
I think two of the owners have been identified. There's been a few that have switched hands through auctions over the years.
One of my dumb purchases during the peak of the 2021 bullrun.
youtube.com/shorts/FEUJrlLnH…
The cope will be palpable.
If market doesn't seppuku this month, still think this has a chance to outperform in the short-term.
Showing relative strength through the flush, swept the local range into demand around $67s and holding. As long as there's no acceptance below, structure remains constructive and arguably among the cleaner setups for mids + majors.
Obv everything looks like garbage across the board, so more an observer for now.. None of this matters if the market keeps dragging everything down through death by a thousand cuts.
The problem with top blasting miner coins with high FDV / high emissions is that you're underwriting two curves moving in opposite directions, one potentially compounding exponentially faster.
Supply is front-loaded while demand-side monetization is back-loaded. Miners are producing and selling into emissions + the first sign of liquidity, while the network needs years of adoption before usage, fees and revs become large enough to absorb supply.
Cobie, Path and I bought into one sometime last year, remarkably similar conditions, and we were just too early. The trade is still developing today, it's much more known, the value prop has gotten more fortified and people are excited, but even now, arguably still early in the adoption curve, nevermind liquidity, miner concentration and other variables before network reaches meaningful economic productivity.
Obviously not trying to make a blanket statement. Many of these newer networks are different + target completely different problems, but economics of mining networks tend to play out over much longer timelines and you often have to bootstrap supply side years before demand-side utilization catches up. It doesn't mean it's useless, it just means you are early, but maybe too early.
Hold duration risk becomes tangible when there's so much pressure on the supply side despite the potential and TAM being undeniable.
I really like this project, but as a sideliner, I'm too late and too early right now.
$RAIL starting to look interesting.
Spent most of the year below its HTF POC around ~$2.7–2.8, swept lows and has now reclaimed the entire move back into an area that's historically important.
Now running into a trouble area around ~$2.7–3.0, but holding above value and establishing itself back above this range would be a meaningful change in structure imo.
Hesitated on the entry a few days ago and it's now had a ~30% daily, so not particularly interested in chasing here, but holding this range + ETH potentially primed for a strong move makes this appealing.
At the least, I think this can test the range highs in the $4s established last year, but can't help but feel this gets its day given how good the U-shaped recovery has been.
Won't go into this too much, but I still think this is one of the best Ethereum privacy proxy trades..
Railgun is directly integrated into Kohaku's privacy tooling + SDK, which feels increasingly relevant given Vitalik's framing of Ethereum as the "world computer," where ZK, privacy and verification become deeply integrated into the stack.
We were day-one supporters of @RAILGUN_Project and provided substantial funding to the Privacy Foundation to support its creation and remain staunch supporters.
Just curious, but is anybody's cardboard outperforming their crypto port since last year, and by a wide margin?
I know the answer is “yes” for at least a few of you, but wanted to get a wider temp check.
More bits and bobs before bed..
I think a strong move from $ETH on the horizon.
Tight ~3% range for the past few days, but decent leverage reset.. OI ramped hard into Sept 21 and has since shed ~9% while price has held, with ETH denominated OI at its lowest since March.
Feels like this resolves soon.. I'm currently positioned for higher, but bias loosely held and positioned appropriately.
Still keeping sizing smol until more directional guidance, but I've picked up a few of the bags I've been monitoring. Hoping to start moving slower and get a chance to ride the next leg in spot with higher-conviction bets.
Grabbed some ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753, $ETHFI, also added $DRV and $GRASS.
Also added more to $HYPE longs, potential LTF HL developing after the $85 sweep... I mentioned maybe $PURR being interesting heading into October a few weeks back. No position, but looks primed.
Back to "devving" so it's taken a bit more of my time, but will be back sharing shitters and leads soon.
Didn't size in much unfortunately, but some decent moves on a few of these today. Managed to catch them near their LTF bases once 4H began looking constructive.
Great reaction on $HYPE OTC news as it hits $89, $NEAR just totally undeterred and back near highs, $ZEC still looking okay..
Keeping these open, stops just below their bases. If these invalidate though, interested in adding to $HYPE spot bags if we get closer to $80.
I'm still eyeing some of the mids I mentioned yesterday, like ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753, $ETHFI and $TAO. A few of these (and some others) are starting to press up against HTF trendline resistance.
Strong candidates for expansion imo, if and when the rotation comes around for them.
Random bits and bobs.. All scribbles before bed.
Still think there's more chop and consolidation ahead, but gonna give a few short term trades a try.
Liking what I'm seeing on the 4H for both $ZEC and $HYPE after a decent momentum reset.
$ZEC looks like it might be forming an LTF base here. Hoping for a bounce back into the $1500s, however short-lived. Tight stops, maybe 1.3R+ optimistically.
Nibbling a bit on $HYPE here too. Lots of front-running October and some exits from public-facing figures and funds. Not confident this is the HTF bottom and more comfortable adding spot in size in the $70s–80s.
BTC OI flushed a decent amount + still holding the weekly open decisively, barely moving from this compressed range while CT's favourite coins dumped ~10–20%. While OI flushed on a number of alts, noteworthy that both of these are still very elevated. There are still lots of believers holding onto conviction. Very obv many want to hold onto these longer.
I really like $PUMP and think it has a chance at a second leg, but got shaken out during that dump a few days back into the 0.0047s and am trying to resist top-blasting it.
$NEAR also looks good. ZEC adjacent, indirectly related, but recent PA has been pretty correlated with both running hot synchronously. Little bit of FUD on the TL, but the chart hasn't flinched. Wouldn't be surprised if this tries again soon.
Hard to make blanket statements about the market. There will def be pockets of performance + outperformance, so many fossils look good.
Eyes on World Computer for a scam pump, ETH/BTC at POC. Outside chance this outperforms the fav coins over next while maybe.