Ex Bankers Trust FX prop trader // ex Deutsche Bank FX prop trader// ex Wachovia (Wells Fargo) FX trader// ex head global FX trading//ex FX fund portfolio mgr.
London and Puerto Banus
Joined March 2017
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forexcurator retweeted
🇦🇪🇺🇦🇷🇺 A RUSSIAN AND A UKRAINIAN SAVED THE DAY
After much confusion, it turns out a Ukrainian and a Russian pilot were on board the FlyDubai plane.
Both took control of the plane and landed it after the second pilot attacked the captain.
Both are pilots who were flying as regular passengers in civilian clothes. After the incident, they replaced the crew in the cockpit and landed the plane.
Russians and Ukrainians work together… a much better end to this story!
Re previous tweet. These are just losses due to outright fraud and scams. Investor losses caused by following fake trading educators, rubbish signal providers and twitter Furus will be much much higher than that. #forex
The FCA reported a few days ago that over £27 million reported lost to crypto and forex investment scams during 2018/2019. On average GBP 14,600 per investor.
fca.org.uk/news/press-releas…
For entire 2019, current AUD rate cut expectations are now 52bp of cuts.
I am putting AUD/CHF buying plan on hold, also given the previous tweet.
For those involved in FX carry trades (like myself),
1.) a June AUD rate cut of 25 bp is now widely expected and almost fully priced in.
2.) AUDCHF is now only the 6th best carry trade pair. USDCHF, EURUSD & USDJPY (long usd each time) and long NZD/CHF are paying out more.
(B). Current general risk off mood in mkt is pushing AUD carry players to stoploss sell AUD. This gives opportunity to pick some AUD up at good levels.
Even if rate cut occurs, AUD will remain a high yielder. Will re-assess often.
2. Ready to scale into longs AUD/CHF on any further dips (ref 0.6985). Why? (A) currently a AUD rate cut of 0.40 % is priced in the mkt. Risk is that this is too much, too soon, hence we can bounce.
Here is my state of play, regarding strategic trades:
1. EUR/USD: still standing aside (pair´s been v. boring), BUT lining up to go long / buy on dips if we were to approach 1.1000
Smart money is vv short, I expect profit taking (=buying) to start on any move lower. Patience.
3/3. As always, pure flow analysis wins, speculating against retail wins. Not fundamentals and definitely not technicals.
2/3. You can still join the party (late and risky though at these current levels) of the large specs, and go short eurusd for my anticipated handle of 1.1000. I myself missed it, wrongly influenced by some 'top analysts' that went long last week...
Nasty moves lower in EURUSD. Retail FX is now long and wrong 5 BN EUR, whilst the large professional speculators have increased their shorts last week and are clear winners yet again... 1/2
Both Retail FX and large specs (according to COT report, large specs have increased their shorts last week) are now short eurusd ===> we trade higher... I´m still on the sidelines.
ref 1.1249. Closing all EUR strategic positions and standing aside for now.
Side remark: Retail has closed more than 2 BN of their EUR longs… so the market is more balanced now.
Stay tuned for more position updates.
The retail #forex market is now massively long (and wrong) EURUSD at crappy levels of 1.1300 and up... We R trading near the low of the range, if 1.1170 breaks decisively, we might see a washout s/l selling wave of these longs, driving EUR lower. Strategy intact: sell on rallies.
UPDATE Ref 1.1218. Our #EURUSD sell-on-rallies strategy during March has paid off handsomely. I will continue to sell on rallies, taking some back at current levels (1.1200 to 1.1220), but still keeping a small core position short. 1/2
A bit wimpy, but taking some short eur/usd back already @ 1.1301 given the overhang of shorts in the market. Still short of course, looking to add higher.
Retail FX is now massively short eurusd as well (close to 5 BN !!!)... which is a bit worrying for the strategy... Large specs are short, retail is short. small specs are long .. who will capitulate first?...
Ref . 1.1319 … In response to some requests: Yes I am short eurusd @ 1.1300 and @1.1333.
As always, scaling in with de-leveraged tickets. And being dynamic: take some back on dips and sell again on rallies.