FTD

Inflation and growth data take center stage this week 📊🌍 This week’s economic calendar features US CPI & Core CPI, China’s inflation and export figures, UK and Eurozone Q3 GDP, and US PPI. These key releases could influence expectations for inflation, economic growth, and monetary policy across global markets. Stay informed for the week ahead. 📅 #FTD #EconomicCalendar #MarketWatch #CPI #GDP

Brent oil has fallen sharply — but is the decline here to stay? 🛢️📉 🇺🇸 Brent dropped around $10 in a single day, bringing its four-day decline to approximately $22. The analysis links much of the pressure to the US midterm election results and growing political opposition to the Iran war. 🕊️ Iran has signaled openness to renewed negotiations, adding to expectations of a possible diplomatic resolution. However, disagreements within Iran and the possibility of renewed US escalation leave significant uncertainty. 📊 Technically, Brent's previous upward trend channel has ended. Prices are testing support around $92.50, while $95.50 remains an important level for assessing any potential recovery. ⚠️ Despite the recent decline, geopolitical risks have not disappeared. Further developments in US-Iran relations could still lead to significant price volatility. Full analysis ▶️ ftdsystem.com/insight/why-oi…

US midterm results bring a new political landscape — what could this mean for markets? 🇺🇸 🏛️ According to the analysis, Democrats have secured major gains in Congress, increasing political uncertainty around US legislation, government funding and foreign policy. 📊 Nasdaq: Concerns over AI investment and data-center expansion remain, although the index has shown signs of a rebound following its pre-election decline. 🥇 Gold: Increased political uncertainty and potential government shutdown risks are part of the backdrop as gold attempts to break above its recent downward channel. Developments involving Iran remain important. 💶 EURUSD: The pair responded positively to a weaker dollar following the election results. A move above 1.1270 remains an important technical condition in the analysis. Full analysis ▶️ ftdsystem.com/insight/us-ele…

FTD Monthly Market Outlook – November 2026 📊 November begins with global markets facing heightened political uncertainty, persistent inflation pressure, and renewed volatility across equities and energy markets. 🗳️ U.S. midterm elections are approaching as markets assess potential shifts in fiscal policy and the broader economic outlook. 🛢️ Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated, with Brent approaching $120 and European gas prices facing renewed pressure. 🏛️ U.S. producer inflation has climbed above 6%, while markets price approximately a 72% probability of a December Fed rate hike. 💻 Meanwhile, AI and semiconductor stocks have faced significant selling pressure, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling more than 19% from its October peak. Explore the full November Market Outlook and discover the key macro themes shaping global markets by visiting our website. 🌐 ftdsystem.com/insight/monthl…

USDJPY may be approaching a major long-term turning point. 🇯🇵🇺🇸 🏦 The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged, but its message shifted. By acknowledging that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, the BOJ is moving away from a policy focused on pushing inflation higher and toward maintaining price stability. 📈 That change could make policy more hawkish from here. Markets are pricing a high probability of a December rate hike, with further tightening also expected in the first half of 2027. 💴 This matters for USDJPY because the carry-trade dynamics that have supported the pair for years could begin to change. 📊 Technically, the long-term rising channel is still intact, but recent tops have been losing momentum and the pair has moved into an increasingly tight range. The analysis highlights 160 as an important area, particularly given the intervention seen earlier this year. Full analysis ▶️ ftdsystem.com/insight/usdjpy…

GBPUSD retests support as three key events come into focus. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 🏦 The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged, while maintaining a hawkish tone. A pause would not rule out a December increase, although the analysis highlights reasons why that next move remains uncertain. 🗳️ The Israeli election adds another layer of uncertainty. The eventual outcome and government formation could influence regional tensions and energy markets, with potential implications for GBPUSD. 🇬🇧 The UK budget is also central to today’s outlook. With inflation and debt-market tensions elevated, the response from the gilt market will be particularly important. 📊 GBPUSD has broken above its recent bottom formation and downtrend line and is now retesting that area. The analysis outlines two scenarios: another upward swing if support around 1.3280 holds, or a return toward 1.3140 if the setup fails. Today’s events could influence which scenario develops. Full analysis ▶️ ftdsystem.com/insight/gbpusd…

Why is the S&P 500 still near its all-time high? 📊 🌍 At the time of the analysis, the index was just 1.68% below its record high, despite elevated interest rates, Treasury yields above 5%, inflation concerns and ongoing geopolitical tensions. 🏢 The analysis points to corporate revenue as a key explanation. Consumers continue to spend, keeping company revenues elevated despite the wider risks. AI-related revenues are also supporting much of the current investment, although concerns about excessive spending remain. 📊 Participation in the rally remains uneven, with 56% of S&P 500 companies above their 200-day moving averages. The analysis highlights the possibility that easing risks could allow more of the lagging stocks to participate, providing additional support for the index. ⚠️ The broader upward outlook remains conditional. A recession, a significant escalation in the Iran war or a sharp deterioration in corporate revenues could change the picture. High rates and geopolitical risks still matter, but their effect on company revenues remains central to the analysis. Full analysis ▶️ ftdsystem.com/insight/why-sp…

Gold’s first reaction to CPI may not tell the full story. 🟡📊 🇺🇸 Looking at the last five US CPI releases, gold often made sharp initial moves of around 1%–2%, only to reverse direction shortly afterward. ↔️ In several cases, the first reaction was inconclusive or quickly erased, while the broader economic backdrop — including Fed expectations, bond yields and the existing gold trend — played a larger role in what followed. ⏱️ Across all five examples in the analysis, the gains or losses generated during the first hour were eventually given back within the following 24 hours. ⚠️ The key takeaway: major inflation releases can create unusually high short-term volatility, and the same data can produce very different reactions depending on the wider market environment. ftdsystem.com/insight/how-to…

Is the dollar breaking trend — or just pausing? 💵 📈 Since September 9, DXY has been in a strong medium-term uptrend. Today, the index moved below that trend for the first time. 📊 102–102.50 is the key resistance area. The next move could determine whether the dollar retests the recent trend or enters a healthier correction. 🏦 US Treasury yields remain central to the outlook. The 10-year yield is still showing upward pressure below 5.35%, while a longer consolidation or a downside break could increase the likelihood of a DXY pullback. 🗳️ Election uncertainty and potential profit-taking are also among the short-term factors that could influence the dollar. ftdsystem.com/insight/dollar…

FTD Monthly Market Outlook – October 2026 📊 October begins with global markets facing surging bond yields, renewed energy pressure, and rising geopolitical uncertainty. 📈 U.S. Treasury yields have climbed to multi-decade highs, with the 10-year breaking above 5% as debt supply continues to pressure bond markets. 🏛️ The Fed raised rates by 25 bps in September and remains firmly hawkish, with another hike still projected before year-end. 🛢️ Brent remains elevated above the $95–100 pivot zone as Middle East tensions and supply disruptions keep energy risks in focus. 🗳️ Meanwhile, the U.S. midterm elections are moving into the spotlight, adding another layer of uncertainty for the dollar and broader markets. Read the full October Market Outlook and explore the key themes shaping global markets. 📊 Visit our website to read the full analysis. 🌐 ftdsystem.com/insight/monthl…

Markets are heading into another policy-focused week 📊🌍 This week’s economic calendar features Eurozone Composite PMI, US ISM Services, US Trade Balance, and Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings. The spotlight then turns to the FOMC Minutes, as markets look for further signals on the Fed’s policy outlook. 👀 Stay prepared for the week ahead.

The dollar is surging — but election risk is moving into focus. 🇺🇸💵 📈 Higher Treasury yields and expectations for tighter Fed policy have supported the dollar, while pressure on the euro, yen and pound has added to the momentum. 🗳️ With the US midterms approaching, political uncertainty could become a bigger market driver. Congress may enter a post-election lame-duck session before the new Congress begins on January 3. 🏛️ Funding risk is also waiting in the background. The current continuing resolution funds the government through December 11, leaving another budget deadline shortly after the election. 👀 Technically, 102 is the key level for DXY in the analysis. A breakout could open the door above 103, while rejection could strengthen the case for a medium-term top. Can dollar strength overpower the political risks ahead, or will the election cycle interrupt the rally? Full analysis ▶️ ftdsystem.com/insight/electi…