Page : Fun Manager จาก Facebook แอบมาเปิดสาขาเพิ่มใน X เพราะในนี้มีสิ่งดีๆเยอะ
Joined May 2023
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Fun Manager retweeted
The picture is of a market with an increasingly powerful mechanical bid underneath it. Something that does not evaluate, that does not read a rally as useful information at all, and that shows up on declines with a size and a speed that has no precedent
Fun Manager retweeted
Nomura Report on Global Memory- 10.19.2026
Nomura's central thesis: The market is overestimating risks surrounding AI financing, slowing AI revenue growth and Chinese memory competition, while underestimating the earnings and cash-generation opportunity of memory manufacturers.
They expect memory supply constraints to persist through at least 2028, supporting an extended period of favorable pricing and profitability.
→ AI infrastructure demand is accelerating.
Nomura forecasts:
- AI data center capacity grows from 34 GW in 2026 to 74 GW in 2028 — approximately 118% expansion in two years.
- AI's share of facility capacity increases from 54% to 76%.
- Total global data center power usage rises from 60 GW in 2025 to 115 GW in 2028.
- Heavy-agent workloads become an increasingly important source of AI power demand.
Nomura considers market concerns surrounding CXMT's progress in 4F² DRAM technology excessive.
Its position:
- CXMT's technological progress does not invalidate the broader supply-constrained memory thesis.
- The breadth of AI demand is being underestimated.
- Global memory supply constraints should persist through at least 2028.
This is particularly relevant to the scarcity thesis for Micron and SK hynix.
They make stock recommendations for Samsung and SK Hynix
🔽 🔽 🔽
Outer Ninth's 3 most important takeaways:
1. The memory scarcity thesis remains intact.
Nomura's expectation of tightness through at least 2028 supports the possibility of an extended earnings cycle, rather than a short-lived pricing spike. This is constructive for Micron, SK hynix and broader memory exposure and inline with our views.
2. The separation between infrastructure spending and economic capture is becoming increasingly important.
The difference between semiconductor suppliers' cash accumulation and data center operators' indebtedness reinforces one of our core research principles: Participation in AI growth does not necessarily translate into equal financial returns.
I've been speaking to you guys more about this recently and I research it thoroughly- debt structure and capital return to shareholders will matter more heading into 2027.
Companies that control scarce, essential components may capture a disproportionate share of the economics.
3. For our memory ecosystem, the most important insight is the potential for an extended period of scarcity-driven earnings growth and economic capture by upstream semiconductor suppliers.
Companies highlighted on our latest memory ecosystem research w/c I reposted this evening:
SK Hynix 하이닉스 000660.KW | $SKHY
Samsung 삼성 005930.KW
Micron $MU
Sandisk $SNDK
ESMT 晶豪科 3006.TW
Nanya 南亞科 2408.TW
Kioxia キオクシア 285A.JP | $KXIAY
Winbond 華邦電 2344.TW
Phison 群聯 8299.TW
AP Memory 愛普 6531.TW
Etron 鈺創 5351.TW
Seagate $STX
Penguin Solutions $PENG
Western Digital $WDC
Transcend 創見 2451.TW
PSMC 力積電 (6770)
ETFs- $DRAM & $DISK
Fun Manager retweeted
The dot com bubble didn’t end in an across the board bust … it ended with rotation
Wrote about this here 👇
xitter.cf/sonusvarghese/status/2…
Fun Manager retweeted
AI Beneficiaries:
Investing in Second-Order Effects
I just read this great piece from Counterpoint Global, which puts out some amazing free research.
Highly recommend giving it a read. It’s light, easy to follow, and well worth your time. morganstanley.com/content/da…
Fun Manager retweeted
JPMAM sees US large caps and ex-US stocks returning 7.5% annually over the next 10-15 years
Fun Manager retweeted
Ken Griffin, who runs Citadel, just admitted that the biggest advantage of giant funds, armies of people and billion-dollar budgets, is disappearing
And for the first time in history, a small team with AI can move faster than a hedge fund
He’s seen it in his own firm. His AI agent does in 2-3 hours what used to take Citadel’s PhD researchers 6-8 weeks
A fund runs one cycle: come up with a strategy, turn it into code, test it on history, deploy it to the market
Every step used to cost separate people and years of training. Now AI does the whole cycle
You describe an idea in words, it writes the strategy itself, runs it on years of real data, and if it’s alive, deploys it straight to a broker
But the speed isn’t the point. The point is what the retail trader doesn’t understand
You take a strategy with a beautiful chart and you believe it. But a beautiful chart is no proof
Run enough versions and a profitable curve will appear even on random numbers. One just got lucky, and you decided you found gold
Funds don’t trust any curve until they test it on data the strategy has never seen. There the fit falls apart, and a real edge survives
I ran two of the most-cited quant papers through this cycle
Time Series Momentum on Bitcoin: +1,537%. Alive
Betting Against Beta, a classic from every textbook: minus 7.78% a year while the market rose 14.86%. A corpse
One still prints money, the other died long ago. And trading blind, you’d never know which is which until it took your deposit
Griffin says the future belongs to small teams with AI. But the only ones who win are the ones who test before they bet
How to plug your AI into real market data so it runs this exact test instead of guessing, in the article below
Fun Manager retweeted
Hedge funds are getting absolutely crushed right now and it helps explain why the stock market has been behaving so irrationally lately.
According to Goldman Sachs, global hedge funds just experienced one of their broadest daily declines since COVID. Fundamental long/short funds lost 1.4% on Thursday, while funds focused on technology, media, and telecommunications fell an average of 2.7%. More than two thirds of hedge funds finished the day in the red. Now, these numbers might not seem that significant compared to what we're seeing in individual stocks, but remember, hedge funds are supposed to manage risk. Many of these funds are designed to make money whether the market goes up or down, yet they're getting hit on both sides of their trades.
So here's what's happening. Most hedge funds own stocks they believe will go higher while simultaneously betting against stocks they expect to fall. Normally, one side is supposed to help offset losses on the other. But right now, their long positions are getting crushed as technology and AI stocks sell off, while some of their short positions are moving higher, forcing them to buy back shares at a loss. And this is where things get interesting. When hedge funds start losing significant amounts of money, they're often forced to reduce their exposure to the market. That means selling positions, raising cash, and reducing leverage. The problem is that they don't necessarily sell companies with deteriorating fundamentals. They often sell whatever they can sell quickly.
This creates a situation where even companies reporting strong earnings, growing revenue, and improving fundamentals can get dragged lower simply because institutions need liquidity. We've been seeing this across semiconductors, memory, AI infrastructure, and other high growth sectors. What's even more interesting is how bearish hedge funds have become. Goldman Sachs reported that short exposure was approaching five year highs, with short selling significantly outpacing long purchases. In other words, a lot of institutional investors are positioning themselves for further declines.
But there's another side to this. When too many investors are betting on the same outcome, even a small market recovery can trigger a significant reversal. If heavily shorted stocks begin recovering, hedge funds may be forced to buy back shares to close their bearish positions. That buying pushes prices higher, potentially forcing even more funds to cover their shorts. Now, does this mean we've officially reached the bottom? Not necessarily. Forced selling can continue longer than people expect, especially when leverage is involved. But I do think it's important to understand that a lot of what we're witnessing right now isn't necessarily being driven by deteriorating company fundamentals. A significant portion could be related to hedge fund positioning, leverage, and institutions being forced to reduce risk.
There's a massive difference between a stock falling because its business is struggling and a stock falling because institutions are being forced to sell. And that's exactly why I'm paying more attention to what these companies are actually reporting than what their stock prices are doing on any given day.
This selloff is a lot closer to the bottom than we think.
According to Jefferies, over the past 10 trading days, its clients have been net sellers of more than $1B worth of technology stocks on 7 separate days. This chart tracks the buying and selling activity of Jefferies’ clients over a rolling 20 day period. When the purple line is above zero, investors are buying more than they’re selling. When it’s below zero, they’re selling more than they’re buying. Right now, that number has collapsed to approximately negative $11B, making this one of the most extreme periods of technology selling we’ve seen in the past two years.
For comparison, even during the major selloffs earlier in 2025 and 2026, the selling pressure wasn’t consistently this severe. And remember, this is just one investment bank’s trading activity. This also helps explain why companies across semiconductors, memory, power, and AI infrastructure have been getting absolutely crushed despite reporting strong earnings and continued demand. A lot of this selling isn’t necessarily happening because the fundamentals have changed. Large institutions are reducing exposure, managing risk and raising cash. When everyone starts selling at the same time, even the best companies get dragged down.
Now, does this mean the bottom is definitely here? Of course not. Nobody knows that but historically, when selling becomes this extreme, it can be a sign that we’re getting closer to exhaustion. Eventually, the forced selling slows down, buyers return, and stocks can recover. My personal view is that we’re likely getting much closer to a bottom, I’m not changing my long term outlook on AI because hedge funds and institutions are aggressively selling technology stocks. The demand for compute, memory, power, and AI infrastructure hasn’t suddenly disappeared. I’m investing with years in mind, not weeks.
Fun Manager retweeted
BlackRock recently upgraded U.S. Treasuries and reduced its U.S. equity outlook from overweight to neutral.
Why?
Compared with 2020, the increase in Treasury yields reflects a substantial rise in the implied real-rate component and a return to a positive estimated term premium.
So inflation compensation alone does not explain the rise in Treasury yields.
We went through a period of time where real yields were negative just a few years ago.
With real yields now the highest they've been since roughly 2007, the risk to reward for equities/fixed income has shifted dramatically.
Fun Manager retweeted
มึง อยากให้ร้านนี้แมสมาก คุณยายทำเบาะรองนั่งขาย เป็นงานแฮนด์เมด 100 % คุณยายตั้งใจทำมากเลยนะ ราคาไม่แพงเลย อยากให้คนอุดหนุนกันเยอะ ร้านชื่อว่าเบาะรองนั่งแม่น้อย อยู่ที่สันป่าตองเชียงใหม่ ช่วยกันอุดหนุนคุณยายด้วยนะครับ !!!!!!
Fun Manager retweeted
Nomura: AI Lab Concerns vs. Memory Fundamentals
→ Remains bullish on memory, expecting supply constraints to persist through at least 2028. Views market concerns around CXMT's 4F² transition as excessive.
→ OpenAI + Anthropic combined revenue estimated to grow +507% YoY in 3Q26, despite recent sequential growth concerns.
→ Argues AI revenue deceleration is partly distorted by reporting differences, customer migration and seasonality, rather than deteriorating underlying demand.
→ 4Q26 revenue hurdle: Combined OpenAI/Anthropic revenue needs to reach $43.9bn (+61% QoQ) to meet market expectations, versus $29.7bn at unchanged September run rates.
→ AI profitability underestimated: AWS, Microsoft Intelligent Cloud and Google Cloud reported operating margins of ~39%, 41% and 36%, respectively. Nomura estimates ~60% EBITDA margins across these cloud businesses.
→ Anthropic reportedly reached adjusted operating profitability in 3Q26, following an adjusted operating profit in 2Q26. Nomura expects further operating leverage as revenue scales.
→ Cash flow ≠ profitability: Rapid infrastructure investment creates a timing mismatch between upfront compute spending and subsequent revenue generation, potentially exaggerating concerns over AI economics.
→ Memory demand extends beyond AI labs: Nomura estimates OpenAI and Anthropic account for only ~5GW of the 29GW global AI installed capacity expected by YE26.
Fun Manager retweeted
มีบทหนึ่ง คุณ KC เล่าให้ฟังว่ามีคนเคยขอคำแนะนำประโยคพูดให้กำลังใจตัวเองหน่อยได้ไหม เขาบอกว่าเขาเคยพูดประโยคชื่นชมตัวเองในเชิงบวกแล้วมันไม่ได้ผลเลย
ตัวคุณ KC เองเธอก็เคยมีความรู้สึกขัดแย้งในใจเหมือนกัน เพราะในวันที่รู้สึกแย่มากๆ แต่ก็ต้องมาบอกตัวเองหน้ากระจกว่า “วันนี้ฉันโอเค” มันก็รู้สึกย้อนแย้งแปลกๆ บางครั้งยิ่งทำให้รู้สึกแย่กว่าเดิม เพราะลึกๆ เรารู้ตัวเองว่าเราไม่ได้รู้สึกโอเคจริงๆ
ในวันที่เธอได้เรียนรู้ที่จะใจดีกับตัวเองมากขึ้น เธอก็ค้นพบประโยคให้กำลังใจที่ใช้ได้ผลกับเธอ คือ
“ฉันก็เป็นมนุษย์คนหนึ่ง” 🥺
มนุษย์เป็นสิ่งมีชีวิตที่มีข้อบกพร่อง ทำเรื่องผิดพลาด และไม่ได้สมบูรณ์แบบ แต่นั่นก็ไม่ได้ลดทอนคุณค่าในตัวคนคนนั้นแม้แต่น้อย
เพิ่งอ่านเล่มนี้จบ เซอร์ไพรส์มาก (และดีมากกก) ไม่คิดว่ามันจะมีเรื่องของการดูแลสุขภาพจิตที่ซ่อนอยู่ในเรื่องการจัดหรือการดูแลบ้านมากมายขนาดนี้
คุณเจ้าของหนังสือเอา 2 เรื่องนี้มาเชื่อมโยงกันแล้วเขียนออกมาให้อ่านแบบสนุก แต่ละบทสั้น ยาว สลับกัน แถมยังได้แนวทางในการดูแลสุขภาพจิตตัวเองไปพร้อมๆ กับการดูแลบ้านด้วย
คุณ KC เป็นนักบำบัดค่ะ (เธอมีอาการของ ADHD ด้วย) ช่วงที่คลอดลูกคนที่สอง เป็นช่วงล็อคดาวน์โควิดพอดี ทั้งต้องดูแลบ้าน ดูแลลูกที่เพิ่งคลอด นอนไม่พอเพราะต้องตื่นมาให้นมลูก ช่วงนั้นเธอรู้สึกว่าตัวเองทำหน้าที่แม่ได้ไม่ดีพอ ส่งผลให้เธอตกอยู่ในภาวะซึมเศร้าหลังคลอด
หนังสือเล่มนี้ก็มาจากปัญหาที่เธอเคยเจอมากับตัวเองค่ะ ตอนอ่าน มีหลายช่วงที่พยักหน้าตามหงึกๆ เพราะมีหลายตอนที่ relatable กับตัวเองมาก
Fun Manager retweeted
Fidelity: The global economy remains in a solid, albeit unsynchronized, expansion
Fun Manager retweeted
WealthX นายแน่มาก นี่เป็นฟีเจอร์ที่ผมอยากให้มีมานานแล้ว
ปกติเวลาเราทำ DCA ไปเรื่อยๆ สัดส่วนพอร์ตมันก็จะเปลี่ยนไปตามราคาสินทรัพย์ ถ้าอยากให้กลับมาตรงกับเป้าหมายก็ต้องมานั่ง Rebalance เอง
แต่ WealthX ทำ Rebalance DCA ออกมาให้ระบบเอาเงิน DCA รอบใหม่ไปซื้อกองทุนที่สัดส่วนต่ำกว่าเป้าหมายก่อนโดยอัตโนมัติ ไม่ต้องมานั่งคำนวณเอง และไม่จำเป็นต้องขายกองทุนเดิมออกด้วย
ผมว่ามันเป็นฟีเจอร์ที่เรียบง่ายแต่ฉลาดมาก เพราะนอกจากจะช่วยให้เราลงทุนได้อย่างสม่ำเสมอแล้ว ยังช่วยรักษาสัดส่วนพอร์ตให้ใกล้กับแผนที่วางไว้ด้วย
อยากเห็นแพลตฟอร์มลงทุนในไทยแข่งกันพัฒนาฟีเจอร์แบบนี้เยอะๆ มากกว่าแข่งกันแค่เรื่องค่าธรรมเนียมอย่างเดียว
Fun Manager retweeted
PPI Summary
Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods advanced 2.6%, in September, the largest increase since data were first calculated in December 2009. Over 80 percent of the broad-based rise in September is attributable to the index for final demand energy, which jumped 10.8 percent. Prices for final demand foods and for final demand goods less foods and energy advanced 1.2 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.
Product detail: Half of the September increase in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for gasoline, which jumped 20.3%. The indexes for diesel fuel, fresh and dry vegetables, jet fuel, residential electric power, and crude petroleum also rose. In contrast, prices for chicken eggs dropped 39.7 percent. The indexes for thermoplastic resins and materials and for commercial electric power also declined.
Final demand services: Prices for final demand services moved up 0.8% in September, the largest rise since advancing 0.8% in April. Nearly half of the broad-based September increase can be attributed to a 1.4-percent rise in margins for final demand trade services. The indexes for final demand transportation and warehousing services and for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing also advanced, 3.4 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.
Product detail: Over 20 percent of the September increase in prices for final demand services can be traced to margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling, which advanced 3.9 percent. The indexes for truck transportation of freight, food and alcohol wholesaling, traveler accommodation services, food retailing, and airline passenger services also rose. Conversely, margins for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing dropped 30.3%. The indexes for securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice and for chemicals and allied products wholesaling also fell.
Fun Manager retweeted
Core CPI: Fed Incompetence, Wall Street Applause
September’s core CPI rose 0.369%, with shelter alone contributing 0.23 percentage points. Yet the Fed and its Wall Street cheerleaders keep prescribing tighter money as though higher rates somehow build more housing.
This is not monetary sophistication. It is incompetence dressed up as inflation-fighting resolve.
Higher rates raise financing costs, choke construction and deepen the housing shortage. The Fed responds to a negative growth shock by squeezing supply further, then points to stubborn shelter inflation as evidence that its squeeze has not gone far enough.
Its Wall Street defenders call that credibility. The rest of us can recognize a circular argument when we see one.
“Higher rates cure inflation” is a slogan, not an analysis. When tightening aggravates the supply constraint behind rising prices, doubling down is not discipline. It is refusing to understand the problem.
