Senior Analyst, Iran and Oil @EurasiaGroup. Formerly @ISSYale. Author of "The Struggle for Iran" and "Petroleum and Progress in Iran." Views my own.
Joined October 2012
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New pinned tweet, as the links broke for the old one:
"Petroleum and Progress in #Iran: Oil, Development, and the Cold War." cambridge.org/us/academic/su…
"The Struggle for #Iran: Oil, Autocracy, and the Cold War, 1951-1954." uncpress.org/book/9781469671…
US officials cited here think that an intense, brief (as in, a few days) air campaign will push Iran into making concessions on its nuclear program.
These predictions have been made before. They have proven incorrect. Iran is broadly signaling it is ready for an attack, that it expects one, and will retaliate aggressively.
Trump has yet to make a decision. nytimes.com/2026/10/21/us/po…
Iran fully expects the US and/or Israel to attack. That much is clear.
It is unlikely that Iran fires the first shot. But they do appear ready to fire the last.
Iran has little hope that current talks yield progress--instead, it is preparing for US escalation, which it sees as likely.
Araghchi also issues a thinly veiled threat: any escalation "will put civilian lives and the wellbeing of all regional states and the global economy at great risk." ft.com/content/61bf9676-ea46…
Netanyahu wants to resume the war, he's comfortable striking sensitive Iranian civilian infrastructure, and he wants to do so before 27 October elections, but can't (it seems) because Trump won't move until after the 3 Nov midterms.
None of this seems too surprising.
ft.com/content/eb4d1101-45ed…
After falling for two weeks, regional flows bounced back, with the average for total liquids spiking above 23 million bpd, higher than the prewar level, per Kpler's tracker.
Iranian attacks pose risks, but the rewards for tankers are worth it. wsj.com/world/middle-east/mo…
Gregory Brew retweeted
Persian Gulf oil exports have surpassed prewar levels, as an improvised shipping system under U.S. protection is helping tankers move oil through one of Iran’s fiercest waves of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. on.wsj.com/4dKoAkk
Munir's comment today raises some questions:
-why did Pakistan close its border with Iran--was it a move taken in advance of today's talks, or was there a separate cause?
-why did Munir announce that borders were reopening? Was this always the plan, or did something happen in Tehran today that could facilitate this process?
Either way, a positive development for Iran.
سفر عاصم منیر به تهران گشایشی در مذاکرات ایران و امریکا ایجاد نکرد اما خبر خوب کوچیکی که ازش بیرون آمد این نقل قول از اوست که پاکستان دوباره مرزهای خودش رو بروی ایران باز کرد. اگر نقل قول دقیق باشه و این اتفاق واقعا بیفته، یعنی پایان بلاتکلیفی و نگرانی چندین و چند روزه برای هزاران راننده کامیون در دو سوی مرز و هزاران تاجر و مغازه دار و فروشنده و شهروند عادی. گزارشم رو ببینید
Situation in Sistan/Baluchistan and along the Iran-Pakistan border seems unsustainable. Creeping toward a true crisis.
Fwiw Zahedan is 700 miles from Tehran, and about 900 miles by road.
Qalibaf to Munir:
We have no new message, and America cannot gain Iran's trust except by implementing Iran's seven conditions presented in New York.
Brent bouncing back, as it's becoming clear the early report of a deal was unfounded.
Triggering my nostalgia! Remember May-June, when this would happen on a weekly basis? Good times...
An important part of Netanyahu's pitch to Israeli voters is the idea that the two wars against Iran instigated by Israel in June 2025 and February 2026 were failures, and that a third war is necessary.
"A job to finish."
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are discussing the possibility of renewed strikes against Iran, with Netanyahu telling Trump they will "finish it together."
According to Axios, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth made a surprise visit to Israel, meeting Netanyahu at an air base as Israeli fighter jets conduct overnight drills toward Iran.
The high-level coordination comes as Trump reiterates that Iran cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. | @TreyYingst @foxandfriends