Energy analyst & investor • chart enjoyer • 对中国好奇

Joined December 2018
Are electricity prices really why the UK and Germany are losing industry to China? Can they be lowered? British industry pays ~3x what China does for power, German industry ~2x. I rebuilt the bills from published tariffs, 2010–2025. Here's what I found 🧵
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There are some good ideas in here, some bad ones too. But more than that, I think it misunderstands the UK's growth challenge as a shortage of ideas. For the most part I don't think it is that. Why have previous growth strategies and pushes failed over the years? Plenty of reasons, but a few key ones I think are often overlooked... 1) Execution and delivery: too focused on announcements not on mechanisms to drive through change. Delivery matters as much as the ideas. 2) Lack of prioritisation: most Governments try to do too much at once. 64 things on growth, along with everything else they'd want to change would undoubtedly be impossible to deliver. Which of these are actually the most important unlocks? 3) Failure to confront trade offs: linked to the above, understanding what you are willing to sacrifice in order to achieve the aims that matter. Also which groups you are willing to disappoint, can't keep everyone happy. It is rarely a lack of ideas or policies announced. To be fair, I think pretty much all parties in the UK are struggling with the above right now, so this isn't specific to Reform. Just happened to trigger the thought. It is worth revisiting past successful political/policy strategies (successful at the least by their own aims). Take Thatcher's Stepping Stones document. It is incredibly clear & focused in both its diagnosis of the core problem & its actions to push through change. It is a world away from the long lists of ideas we see nowadays in political announcements.
Britain is broke. And to fix it, we need to start growing again. That’s why Reform’s Economic Rescue Plan includes these 64 pro-growth measures I’d take if I were Chancellor: 𝗨𝗻𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝗦𝗲𝗮 1. Approve Rosebank 2. Restart oil and gas licensing 3. Legalise onshore exploration 4. Abolish the Energy Profits Levy 5. Restore maximum economic extraction as the North Sea regulator's objective 𝗥𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻 6. Abolish the Emissions Trading Scheme 7. Halt the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism 8. Repudiate AR7 contracts for difference and scrap AR8 9. Implement the Fingleton Review on nuclear in full 10. Automatically approve French and South Korean nuclear designs 𝗚𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗖𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 11. Cut affordable housing requirements on brownfield sites 12. Permitted Development Right for brownfield housing 13. Repeal Biodiversity Net Gain 14. Exit the Aarhus Convention 15. Repeal and reform the Habitats Regulations, including Nutrient Neutrality 16. End the boiler ban 17. Legalise air conditioning to meet overheating rules 18. Remove mandatory EPC improvements 19. Revoke the Future Homes Standard 20. Repeal the Renters' Rights Act 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 21. Legislate approval for new runways at Heathrow and Gatwick 22. Auction airport landing slots 23. End 'target-consistent' carbon pricing in project evaluation 24. Ban carbon emissions considerations in planning applications 25. Fast-track all water reservoirs as nationally significant projects 26. Make Development Consent Orders a true one-stop shop 27. Restrict judicial review of ministerial planning decisions 28. Scrap Net Zero construction rules 29. Scrap the social value test in procurement 30. Lift launch limits at SaxaVord Spaceport 31. Open completed sections of East-West Rail 𝗝𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 32. Review regulatory barriers to AI adoption 33. Permit on-site gas generation for data centres and industry 𝗥𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗛𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 34. Cut Employer NI back to 13.8% 35. Introduce a migrant worker levy 36. Repeal the Employment Rights Act 37. Clarify that workplace rights don't require mandatory training courses 38. Let experienced tradesmen work on government contracts without CSCS qualifications 𝗨𝗻𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 39. Review bank capital requirements to boost lending 40. Rule out Net Zero in financial regulators' remits 41. Repeal climate-related financial disclosure rules 𝗚𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗼𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 42. Scrap airport 'surface access strategies' 43. Abolish the electric vehicle mandates 44. Apply domestic GB hours to all UK HGV trips 45. Ban Low-Traffic Neighbourhoods 46. Back the M4 Relief Road 47. Move a new car's first MOT to four years 48. Abolish the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation 𝗨𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘁 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗼𝗺𝘀 49. Replace GDPR with a New Zealand-style Privacy Act 50. Fully re-legalise Imperial units 51. Review all unchanged EU law 52. Automatically repeal remaining EU law in 5 years unless retained 𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗴𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 53. Make quarterly Making Tax Digital reporting voluntary 54. Reduce legal obligations on SME Non-Executive Directors 55. Double permission-free event days from 28 to 56 56. Make pavement dining licences automatic and permanent 57. Let shops open until 10pm, except Sundays 58. Repeal board diversity and inclusion rules 59. Remove the Sustainable Aviation Fuel mandate 60. Abolish the packaging tax 61. Scrap BBC and Channel 4 priority on streaming platforms 62. Remove the Public Sector Equality Duty 63. Five-year sunset on all QUANGOs 64. Five-year sunset clause on all new regulations And there are more to come! Britain’s full potential is waiting to be unleashed 🚀
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In Japan they trust people to not injure themselves, and that allows them to do away with the expensive and often ugly safetelyism that took over the west. We need to do away with the injury claims and start treating people like grown ups.
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the eurostar would be one of the greatest institutions to ever exist if it wasn't nerfed by airport style security nonsense . imagine eurostar but like any other european train so you can hop on 30s before departure
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Collecting all the tariffs and building the models behind this piece would've taken a 3-person consulting team close to a month. Claude did it in a week. It's never been easier to build, test, and make your policy proposal be heard
Are electricity prices really why the UK and Germany are losing industry to China? Can they be lowered? British industry pays ~3x what China does for power, German industry ~2x. I rebuilt the bills from published tariffs, 2010–2025. Here's what I found 🧵
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Two thoughts on nuclear from the same piece: 🇰🇷 Koreans appear to be capable of building nuclear reactors cheaply even outside their home country. Their LCOE is lower than running gas in Europe. 🇨🇳 It took China a decade to figure out how to build reactors on-time.
Are electricity prices really why the UK and Germany are losing industry to China? Can they be lowered? British industry pays ~3x what China does for power, German industry ~2x. I rebuilt the bills from published tariffs, 2010–2025. Here's what I found 🧵
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Should actually be three thoughts, the third one being that extending the life of existing plants, or restarting recently decommissioned, is a no-brainer
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Despite that restarting German plants, at this point, borders on impractical.
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Missed this earlier but sounds very bullish for $FSLR and $TE
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Thanks to @Currence_AI for the newsletter!
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Much of the competitiveness gap vs. China is driven by their undervalued currency. Energy, as it turns out, is no different.
Replying to @gnievchenko
Meanwhile China priced itself in: its industrial tariff fell from $145 to $87/MWh (2012–25), mostly because tariffs stayed frozen in yuan.
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Gniewomir retweeted
Britain needs ‘chainsaw economics’. My latest column for @FT. Shock therapy can liberate the UK economy from a cycle of low growth, rising debt and an expanding state: as.ft.com/r/963776ad-73b3-4b…
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The fixes? North Sea drilling is a fiscal win but won't move bills. Nuclear is 10+ years out. Wind and solar already undercut running existing gas; the bottleneck is the grid.
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Sure but by re-inventing the cruise missile they’ve also made them cheaper
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Gniewomir retweeted
Mask Off Moment This is an anonymous account I use to post a bunch of deep tech content on X covering heavy industry, light industry, technology trends, industrial bottlenecks, weird explainers and esoteric insights. iykyk. A lot of very talented people (many of whom run amazing companies) DM me saying please keep posting “this is the best content on X”. I get DMs from VCs asking about companies, and DMs from LPs asking about industrial and economic theories. This is all very flattering, and whilst I sometimes post a bit sporadically I do try and make the effort to tap out a new post most days. The quality of people who follow @object_zero_ is frankly phenomenal, it’s a real privilege to have this channel in my pocket. 40k followers including world leaders, centi-billionaires, serial inventors and entrepreneurs, world renowned scientists, and engineers. I would say it’s a mix, but the reality is that it’s not a mix at all, it’s an extremely high mean and median. I have posted about shipbuilding, nuclear power, the Kroll process, silicon carbide, laser interferometry, heavy steel forging, machine learning, design engineering, CFD, manufacturing methods, power transmission and HVDC. I post about energy and commodities and industry and global macroeconomics. I post about mines and prospecting, minerals on the sea bed and drilling and producing hydrocarbon basins. Don’t worry… I’m not leaving. I’m not ill and I’m not asking for anything. A quick apology… I would post here more often, except I don’t have the time. I am able to post with a bit more breadth and depth because I am genuinely engaged in these things. I don’t want to be presumptive, but I think the people who have reached out to talk to me about their work would attest to this. I simplify a lot of the posts so I don’t collapse the audience, but if you reach out in the comments or DM you can get much sharper commentary. So what is this post? Well, it’s time that I start talking about what I am actually doing irl, who I am, what I am engaged in. Some people on X already know some loose details, some people have met me as Object Zero. But irl, I work about 5,000 hours a year and have done so for 20 years, I believe hard work puts you in a privileged place. It changes you. Over the years I’ve invented and developed new industrial technologies, I’ve built big things, I’ve executed major capital projects. I feel I understand what the world needs in the 2030s and where we are falling short. If you believe you are capable of such things, then you have an obligation to society to go and do them. I am confident I know what it’s possible to do, and what it takes to get it done. I intend to solve our energy infrastructure, generation and transmission and the big BTM loads that are emerging. I’ve already hired the best people in the world for this, people who have architected $6bn assets, people who have commanded $40bn fleets. I’ve hired the best research faculty from the best university. This isn’t a game. We’ve already built and tested the first prototypes, we are already completing the permission processes, the licences and the permits. All the elements already exist, it just needs 21st Century system integration. Because technology has changed, the past is already obsolete, the genie is out of the bottle, the 21st century is getting built on a Western tech stack and/or an Eastern tech stack. There is no in between, there is no middle ground. Both sides have strengths and weaknesses, but if we want freedom we’re going to have to earn it again. We are going to build the biggest products (by mass) that have ever been manufactured, we are going to build a lot of them. They’re going to change the world, and we’re going to get more of this…
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