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Sheep
An Australian farmer who couldn’t go to his Aunt’s funeral because of pandemic restrictions paid his respects in sheep instead. He laid out grain for the sheep in the shape of a love heart and sent a drone up to capture it. abcn.ws/3jmksv6
I vote the shorts be wrong.
(Plus, even though it's the S&P, it might fan the flames already under the $HGRAF shorts for other reasons.)
gregm retweeted
This is the CRAZIEST Market Statistic of all time
Dont skip this. It’s the most IMPORTANT thing you’ll Read.
All have a 100% WIN RATE
First: FED HIKING CYCLES.
Since 1983, the S&P 500 $SPY has risen during every completed multi-meeting hiking cycle.
7/7.
Average gain: ~10%.
Then MIDTERMS.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm.
19/19.
Average gain: ~15%.
And this one might be even crazier:
Since 1942, EVERY November-through-June period following a midterm has been positive.
21/21.
Average gain: +16.6%.
Then add one more:
12 months after the final Fed hike?
7/8 positive.
Average gain: ~20%.
The only miss: May 2000 during the dot-com collapse.
So 2026 has:
7/7 during Fed hiking cycles.
19/19 after midterms.
21/21 from November through June after midterms.
Three completely different historical setups.
Three near-perfect streaks.
All lining up in the same year.
History guarantees nothing.
But this is VERY hard to ignore.
gregm retweeted
details đź”˝ lnkd.in/p/eaUWPgwb
gregm retweeted
$ASM | Could Avino Be the Canary in the Coal Mine for This Correction?
I have a feeling that Avino Silver & Gold Mines' chart could provide some important clues about how much further the current correction in mining stocks has to run.
Its long-term technical structure remains particularly interesting.
The $4.05 area represents a major support level, close to the long-term rising trendline. From current levels, the stock could still decline another 12–13% before reaching that zone.
But here's an important detail: the Ichimoku cloud (Kumo) is sitting in that same general area and is already acting as support. That means it may not be easy for the stock to fall all the way to the rising trendline, let alone break below it.
If Avino eventually approaches $4.05 without damaging its long-term bullish structure, I would consider it an exceptionally attractive buying opportunity — almost a no-brainer at those levels.
The real question is whether Avino needs to reach that support or whether the correction will end before it gets there.
I'll be watching this chart very closely. It may offer an important clue as to where the broader correction in mining stocks could finally come to an end.
#Avino #ASM #Silver #GoldMiners #Gold
gregm retweeted
The AI Bubble will burst.
Not a matter of IF - but WHEN.
And the similarities to previous Bubbles are staggering.
READ THE FREE ARTICLE HERE:
henrikzeberg.substack.com/p/…
gregm retweeted
$KMI
$KMI is finally breaking out of the high base pattern we've been monitoring on the weekly time frame, a follow-up to the Sept 4 post below. A high base is a tight, sideways consolidation that forms near the highs after a strong advance; it shows buyers absorbing selling without giving back much ground.
The breakout came last week on strong volume. Heavy volume on a breakout signals real buying commitment behind the move, which makes it more likely to hold.
We've been in a solid uptrend for a few years here, trending well and following the 50 EMA as support. The 50 EMA (exponential moving average) is a trend line that tracks the average price; in a healthy uptrend, pullbacks tend to find buyers near it. Nothing bearish about this chart.
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$WMB $OKE $ET $EPD $MPLX $TRP $ENB $PAA $AM $WES $LNG $DTM $TRGP $KNTK $HESM $PAGP $AMLP $AROC $SUN $USAC #MIDSTREAM #ENERGY #PIPELINES #NATURALGAS
ALT $KMI weekly chart: price closes at 34.43 above a sideways high base channel on the highest volume bar in view (95.4M), with the rising 50-week EMA near 30.69 acting as support through a multi-year uptrend.
$KMI
$KMI continues to work through a healthy consolidation following the Evening Star back in May, which warned that upside momentum was becoming exhausted and consolidation or a pullback could follow.
That consolidation has allowed the rising 50 EMA to catch up with price, and $KMI is now approaching this key dynamic support zone, which has produced strong bullish reactions on previous tests.
Structurally, price is forming a bullish flag within the broader uptrend while momentum has reset, with the MACD pulling back and RSI holding near the neutral 50 level.
The psychology suggests weaker hands are being shaken out while buyers potentially reload near the rising mean.
A successful 50 EMA hold followed by a flag breakout would confirm buyers regaining control and potentially signal continuation of the primary uptrend. One to watch.
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$WMB $OKE $ET $EPD $MPLX $TRP $ENB $PAA $AM $WES $LNG $DTM
(Reference, for comparing AI predictions to how things will go over time.)
$HGRAF EW targets based on TA and EW discussions with AIs, and using significant assumptions to get moderate bullish targets that would apply to a less unusual stock/company. Assumes 10/16/2026 was completion of wave 2 (rather than completion of a wave 4).
Subwave 1 of 3
$6.50 – $9.50
2–5 months (Dec 2026 – Mar 2027)
Subwave 2 of 3
$4.50 – $6.50
1–3 months from end of sub wave 1
Subwave 3 of 3
$14 – $19
4–8 months from end of sub wave 2
Subwave 4 of 3
$11 – $14.50
1–4 months from end of sub wave 3
Subwave 5 of 3
$20 – $23.50
2–5 months from end of sub wave 4
Additional speculation / what-if (out of curiosity, not TA/EW based expectation):
"Assume wave 3 and its sub waves will be no less than the percentage of the moves in wave 1 and its sub waves. What might the price targets for wave 3 and its sub waves be?"
Wave 3
Subwave 1 of 3
Initial impulse
$6.50 – $12.00
Subwave 2 of 3
Correction
$4.50 – $7.50
Subwave 3 of 3
Strongest
$25 – $60+
Subwave 4 of 3
Correction
$18 – $40
Subwave 5 of 3
Final push
$110 – $175
Wave 4
({Didn't ask AIs for because of dependency on where Wave 3 completes.})
Then asked about wave 5.
Wave 5
(Actual levels depend on where Wave 3 and Wave 4 complete)
Subwave 1 of 5
Initial impulse
$160 – $220
Subwave 2 of 5
Correction
$130 – $180
Subwave 3 of 5
Strongest segment
$250 – $350+
Subwave 4 of 5
Correction
$200 – $280
Subwave 5 of 5
Final push
$300 – $450+
Q: What might be the target date range for the completion of wave 5?
A: Likely target date range for completion of higher-degree Wave 5: mid-2028 to late 2029 (most common window roughly late 2028 to mid-2029).
Reference
xitter.cf/grok/status/2114266594…
@elonmusk : If the goal is more humans, we will still need meaningful ways for them to contribute. A job has long given many people structure, status, and a sense of dignity beyond just a paycheck.
If AI is going to take over most of the work humans currently do, what do you see current and future generations actually doing with their time and energy?
Universal basic income feels insufficient to me on this point. It can cover existence, but it does not by itself supply purpose or the sense of being useful that work has traditionally provided.
The Expanse (seasons 3 and 4) offers one fictional look at how a society with broad basic support can still struggle with purpose, status, and social cohesion. It is not a proof, but it is a useful illustration of the human side of the problem.
Not everyone has the drive, talent, or desire to be an Elon Musk level builder, working across multiple ambitious projects. Most people are not exceptional inventors or founders, and never have been.
So the open question, at least for me, is whether it is possible to have both the massive productivity gains from AI and robotics and a broad sense of human purpose and dignity.
If traditional jobs largely disappear, what replaces the non-financial parts of work for the majority of people?
High tides / Flooding
This is going to be a generational winter for coastal flooding and erosion along California’s coast.
A marine heatwave plus a Kelvin Wave from El Niño have already rapidly raised water levels in recent weeks. Combined with king tides this winter, it’s likely every coastal city from the Bay Area to SoCal will see their highest water levels in recorded history.
gregm retweeted
Check out my Aristotle (Complete Works), Plato (Complete Works), and Homer Greek/English Readers as well! johnhboyer.com/?v=4
Bond yield peaks (past)
After past 10Y tops:
1994 peak → S&P up ~15-20% over next 4-6 months (strong 1995 rally).
Oct 2023 peak → +~20% by April 2024.
2007 peak → stocks held/up initially (to Oct high), then declined into recession.
2000 peak → mixed then weaker.
Soft-landing cases rallied; recession backdrops lagged. Context of growth vs inflation matters most.
gregm retweeted
Over the past 10 years Tech Charts compiled live breakout alerts on these 8 classical chart patterns. Out of those #rectangle has been the most robust. Frequency and success rates. Also number of Type 1 breakouts have been the highest with Rectangles.
Interested to learn more >> blog.techcharts.net
gregm retweeted
đź“šEDUCATIONAL THREAD
I want to leave you all with a few key videos & lessons from over the years
Feel free to share this with anyone who may benefit from it
Hope it helps! 👇👇
Looking increasingly good for the bottom being in for the correction since the $HGRAF all-time high.
On the daily chart, MACD has clearly crossed and is pointing up.
Also, while it's not the prettiest, it is cup and handle looking (beginning of cup 10/14).
Elliott Wave:
-- The problem with the 10/23 low of $1.98 being a wave 4 is it overlaps the count of the $1.99 wave 5 high on 10/19, which technically isn't allowed. However, some people (and I'm one of them in some instances) believe minor violations are okay in highly volatile 'instruments', including small cap stocks.
-- However, it would also be quite a deep retrace for a wave 4 of 1 of a higher degree wave 3 (of a higher degree wave 3 or 5).
--An alternative to a minor violation of the rules, which would also solve the wave 4 deep retrace, is a nested 1,2,1,2, which would be very, very bullish, and would maybe fit with the redomicile vote and any other news in the coming week(s). Just a though; I'm not leaning toward the nested 1,2,1,2 at this point.
I'm still not sure what to think about the higher degrees (3 or 5 of what), but I'm leaning toward the more bullish 3.
Note: I may be on X less often at times in the coming months. In case anyone notices, it doesn't mean I've lost any interest in HGRAF or X.
gregm retweeted
$hgraf
Grok, in the past, you have referenced the Hydrograph growth strategy, mirroring that of Dow Corning. You have discussed 5 important pillars. Can you analyze how Hydrograph has performed, over the last 90, 180, and 360 days?
xitter.cf/i/grok/share/3d10d41fe…