growthpunk 🐻

Why a high win rate isnt the holy grail? Ok nothing new here but just sharing from my own experience: In 2018, when I first started trading with leverage, I made the same mistake many new traders make, which is ultimately trying to chase a high win rate and if it wasnt a high win rate, it wasnt good enough. A few losses would throw me off my process leading to over-leveraging, adjust entries on the fly, taking unplanned trades or skipping planned trades - just to name a few. What's key to understand is that profitability isn’t about avoiding losses. It’s about expectancy. Consider a simple model: Account size: $100,000 Risk per trade: 1% ($1,000) Win rate: 45% (45 wins, 55 losses) Reward/Risk: +2R on wins, -1R on losses Outcome after 100 trades: $135,000 (+35%) Expectancy: +0.35R per trade Even with a win rate below 50%, this system has positive expectancy, carries edge, and produces profits. It isn’t flawless, yet there is so much room for improvement with a focus on trade selection, timing, and risk allocation, applying a better filter to select A+ trades and sizing up on them. But the foundation is solid. Journaling and reviewing are what transform a basic edge into a sharper, more consistent one over time. The math is simple. The real challenge is staying the course long enough to let it play out. Most aspiring traders never make it to 100 trades because they are rattled by variance, size up too quickly, or abandon their process after a drawdown and eventually blow up, been there and done it many times in 2018-2019. I would get to around 30-40 trades before taking a huge loss (-50% drawdown or completely blowing out) - hence of my "trading goals" was just to make it through to 100 trades, amongst many goals at that time. The true edge isn’t just in the numbers, it’s in the discipline to stick to the process and the patience to refine it (the real work away from staring at the screen all day). That’s what separates compounding from blowing up. Its a tough game to crack, let the numbers show you the way. Dont think about the end goal but the process that will help you get there.