Quantitative Researcher/Economist. Former Assistant Professor of Political Science, focusing on Russia and Central Asia. All views my own.
Northern Virginia
Joined September 2015
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Here is a list of Western national elections held in 2024 (after the global inflation crisis). Note what happened to incumbent popular support.
UK: Tories (-46%)
Belgium: Open Vld (-36%)
Croatia: HDZ (-8%)
France: LREM (-36%)
Lithuania: TS–LKD (-30%)
US: Harris (Democrats) (-7%)
In most cases, democratic backsliding doesn't mean going from free and fair elections to brazen ballot stuffing and large-scale arrests of opposition figures. Instead, the ruling party increasingly uses government resources and institutions to give itself unfair advantages.
It remains unclear if the Georgian opposition will be able to galvanise enough support in the coming days. Western officials and election monitoring groups have stopped short of saying the elections had been stolen
theguardian.com/world/2024/o…
For example, gov't workers are pressured to attend rallies and to vote for the ruling party. Local elites are bribed to turn out voters in their regions. It's particularly effective in poorer areas. The courts make an example of a few opposition politicians and journalists. Etc.
There are multiple election precincts in Georgia where the ruling GD obtained more than 90% of the vote (in some cases, significantly more than 90%). A quick search suggests there were far fewer such lopsided results in 2020.
For example: results.cec.gov.ge/#/en-us/e…
Incidentally, this also happened in Marneuli: teapaw.org/OCMediaorg/status/1850…
Video of ballot stuffing that allegedly took place in Marneuli, has been shared on Georgian social media. The election observer responsible for the ballot stuffing was reportedly physically removed from the polling station.
▶️ Georgia live updates: tinyurl.com/4c87zvpn
Cancelling the votes in one precinct isn't much of a solution when GD outperformed its average 2020 Marneuli results by at least 10% in 62 out of the 64 Marneuli precincts that reported their results so far. teapaw.org/OCMediaorg/status/1850…
A true Russian solution. Birth rate too low? Make it illegal to talk about not having kids.
Russian lawmakers are weighing a ban on what they see as the destructive promotion of “childfree ideology.”
But experts argue that this legislation is “repressive” and fails to address the root issues behind the country’s flagging birth rates.
themoscowtimes.com/2024/10/1…
Russia does not need any excuse to jail people from countries it dislikes. This is especially true in light of recent events in Kursk. Anyone with a Western passport who values their life and freedom should stay away. It doesn't matter if they're unimportant or not political.
US-Russian woman jailed for 12 years in Russia for treason, over $51 donation to charity supporting Ukraine bbc.in/3X5VpAj
Not sure how many times people need to be warned, but if you're a citizen of a Western country, do not under any circumstances travel to Russia. bbc.com/news/articles/c4g43l…
To people surprised over the Russian public's continued support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine despite the war's legality/morality and the high cost paid by Russia:
A) the support isn't as strong as it seems, and
B) it's the same kind of support we see in similar countries.
5. People point to German or Japanese post-WWII behavior as examples of people atoning for their country's behavior. But that atonement required a decade-long occupation of Germany and is still lacking in many ways in Japan.