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Joined February 2009
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I see a lot of people brushing off this latest $FICO drama as nothing: - Experian $EXPGY $EXPGF $EXPN revealed it will provide VantageScore 4.0 for $0.99 per mortgage score. - Equifax $EFX and TransUnion $TRU participated in the pricing initiative to expedite VantageScore adoption by lenders. - This strategy follows the FHFA’s 2025 resolution to authorize VantageScore for mortgage underwriting. It's true this is not exactly news, as we knew something like this was coming, but the synchronized announcements from $EFX and $EXPGY were a surprise. You can own $FICO stock and make all the jokes you want about "can't Claude Code credit scores" and VantageScore is garbage, but that is kind of putting your head in the sand. True on the former but not the latter. VantageScore was very much a joke about 15 years ago but not anymore. Nothing lasts forever and we are seeing a transition from monopoly (FICO) to duopoly (FICO and VantageScore). The difference is, FICO must pay for data from the credit bureaus to generate their scores, so they are at a disadvantage in that regard. $EFX $EXPGY $TRU already own the data. As I've said before, the arrangement between them is similar to what banks did to create Zelle, which as you know, very much hurt $PYPL Venmo and $XYZ Cash App. They couldn't compete with the banks' built-in advantages. I am OK owning a small position in $FICO but not one I want to go heavy on, even though I think they will do fine. The biggest risk is further multiple compression in my opinion as the narrative around them changes. Attachments from @gurufocus. Forward PE just shy of 30. I remember the sentiment surrounding FICO in 2010s and my concern is reverting to multiples closer to there, rather than any noteworthy business deterioration. Also, the argument that FICO scores are so cheap relative to mortgage or loan size, their price doesn't matter, is flat-out wrong. When I had a credit biz coming out of GFC, I saw first hand the major banks move away from FICO scores and utilize proprietary scoring models for credit card approvals. Now, they can legally do so for mortgages. Before, they couldn't.
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If you bought Ciena $CIEN 29 years ago, you're up just 121%, far below even bogus CPI inflation. This is the risk when you chase a cyclical which you believe to no longer be one. People say this time is different with AI vs. dot com and maybe it is, but major infrastructure buildouts always end in a bust. Always. The question is not that but rather, how high will their stocks go before they come down. Could $CIEN go to $1,000 over the next couple years? Sure. Though it could also get cut in half from here and go to $150, as it was at in October. Or worse. Much worse. Same applies to other photonics people are chasing like $LITE, $COHR, and similar. I'm not saying I would sell them if I had a very low cost basis. What I'm saying is, why would I put new money into them now? For example, I hold 200 Fabrinet $FN at $159. Current price is $531. I wouldn't touch it anywhere around here. If you look at the attached 10 year financials from @gurufocus for $CIEN you will realize, sales growth really has not been impressive the past couple years, relative to share price appreciation. I'm well aware of Ciena's revenue projections for year ending Oct 2028 of $8B, vs. around $5B current. Yes, that's ~60% growth, I get that, but that growth might largely be priced in. When demand wanes and margins come back down, it could get ugly. Like I said, it's not that a stock like this can't go higher but rather, how much lower it can go. Always focus on downside potential first, not dreams of upside.
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Never understood why people buy energy and defense stocks AFTER a conflict starts in Middle East. This is not the 20th century when WTI would go parabolic in such an event. We have plenty of domestic oil. Period of sustained prices much less likely. In the age of AI, the surgical take-outs of key targets on day one in Iran and Venezuela is quite different than say, taking forever to find Saddam Hussein and bin Laden (early days of $PLTR still). In defense, I own these and they have run so far, so fast: $NOC $RTX $LMT $LHX $HII $GD I wouldn't buy any of them anywhere close to current levels. $AVAV admittedly was looking quite interesting in the $230- $240s last week but I didn't add more and certainly not going to do that now. Tilted more towards commercial aerospace, I did mention buying more $HEI.A $HEI and $LOAR last week on each of their earnings drops, but they too rebounded and today, another leg up. Too expensive now. The only defense stock I think is decently undervalued here is $BAH. Maybe I'm saying that because it's the only one I'm underwater on ($78-$82 cost basis) so I have a vested interest to pump it? However fact is, Booz Allen Hamilton can't be lumped in with non-defense consultants like $ACN. Between that narrative plus the DOGE and similar cuts, they are really down there in valuation, for what historically, is best of breed along with $CACI. @gurufocus are source of attached $BAH financials.
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Some of the recent reviews of GuruFocus on Trustpilot: gurufocus.com/
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I will be hosting GuruFocus July Member Engagement Meeting in about 30 minutes: Time: Wednesday, July 2, 1:00 PM US Central Time Or join the meeting with this YouTube Live Stream Link: youtube.com/watch?v=WpYQQXR8…
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June Members Engagement Meeting: Moat Score and Tariff Resilience Score. In 28 minutes Time: Wednesday, Jun., 04, 2025, 01:00:00 PM US Central Time. Join the meeting with this YouTube Live Stream Link: youtube.com/watch?v=hi-YgtUV…
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In 30 minutes I will host GuruFocus April Member Engagement Meeting. Time: Wednesday, Apr., 02, 2025, 01:00:00 PM US Central Time. Join the meeting with this YouTube Live Stream Link: youtube.com/watch?v=85PQhQcS…
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Join me at the February Member Engagement Meeting. In 19 minutes Time: Wednesday, Feb., 05, 2025, 01:00:00 PM US Central Time. Join the meeting with this YouTube Live Stream Link: youtube.com/watch?v=Dq3rALfp…
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$SIRI @SIRIUSXM Just bought 1000 shares at $20.92. Buffet reportedly bought at almost the exact same price last year several times, and paid a little more for almost 5M shares a few weeks ago on a market dip. Per @gurufocus On December 19, 2024, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio), the renowned investor and leader of Berkshire Hathaway, executed a significant stock transaction involving Sirius XM Holdings Inc. This transaction saw the addition of 4,963,844 shares at a price of $21.60 per share, impacting Buffett's portfolio by 0.04%. gurufocus.com/news/2638012/w…
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Join me for January Member Engagement Meeting. In 25 minutes Time: Wednesday, Jan., 08, 2025, 01:00:00 PM US Central Time. Join the meeting with this YouTube Live Stream Link: youtube.com/live/EJ8iddcwXBI
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These are two energy stocks that I am bullish on. However, don't just take my word for it. I am not trying to impress you. Rather, I am trying to impress upon you to do your due diligence before deciding. Gurufocus has been an invaluable service to me. But, you have to understand the numbers cause they are not like conventional 'Analysts' that tell you what to buy and what not. They have great tutorials on YouTube and the site. Remember, it is your hard-earned money at risk. Therefore, I suggest making it hard to part with it. imo gurufocus.com/
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GuruFocus Value Insights interview with Old West Investment Management, LLC $ABT #uranium $ENVX $ENPH $UHAL #copper $LUN $FIL #tin $AFM #silver $ADT oldwestim.com/_files/ugd/718…
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20-Year Letter to GuruFocus Users This month marks the 20th anniversary of GuruFocus. I began GuruFocus as a hobby during the Christmas holiday of 2004 while working as a scientist at a telecom company. I never imagined that I would still be working on it 20 years later, or that the website would one day serve millions of users. Twenty years is a long time. It has transformed an energetic young man who used to work 16-hour days into a grey-haired man who now needs much more sleep. Yet, twenty years is also a short time. We still operate like a new start-up. We continuously add new features and data to the website, use the latest technology to ensure it is secure and user-friendly, work hard to make every subscriber feel like they are our only subscriber, and get just as excited when we receive compliments from our users. We work toward our goal of providing an unmatched full-scale research platform for fundamentally-oriented investors, with data that covers almost everything they need and tools that can do everything they want. It has been an amazing journey! Over the course of this journey, I have learned tremendously from our users. I have learned much more from our users than they have learned from me. My role at GuruFocus has also changed. Twenty years ago, I was the developer and webmaster of GuruFocus. Today, I am mainly a user of GuruFocus. For a long time now, GuruFocus has been the only place that I go for my own stock research. As a user, here is how I feel GuruFocus has benefited my own research: A systematic way of finding stocks The powerful GuruFocus screeners enable me to systematically find the stocks that satisfy the requirements of my investment strategies and are within my circles of competence. No matter what your strategies are, systematically screening stocks with GuruFocus screeners instead of getting stock tips randomly will help you uncover the stocks that you would otherwise never be able to find. More importantly, it helps you stay within your circles of competence and build the level of confidence that you need to go through market ups and downs. Once you set up the screener and save it, you can access it with one mouse click next time you come to GuruFocus. You can also receive email alerts once new stocks appear. After being involved in the stock market for more than 20 years, I have settled on the strategy of investing in high-quality stocks, which I have described in detail in my highly rated book “Invest Like a Guru.” My investment results have been much more consistent and rewarding. Save time With all the tools and data in one place, you save a lot of time with your research. Our collection of tools and data allows you to find stocks you like and gain a deep understanding of the stocks you want to research quickly. We do a tremendous amount of data calculations and they are available to you so that you don’t have to do the calculations yourself. Even better, if you find something that you would like to have but we don’t have yet, be it a tool or data, let us know and we can usually add it quickly. Talk to us, and you will find that we work for you, and we want you to succeed with your investing endeavors. Avoid mistakes The features such as the rankings of different aspects of the companies, the valuation tools, and the warning signs will help you reduce the mistakes you make during the investment decision process. Even avoiding one mistake a year will save you much more than a year of GuruFocus membership costs and your investments will become much more profitable. Over time, the added profits from using GuruFocus will be many times larger than the cost of the subscription. Perhaps that is why many users who subscribed when I first got started 20 years ago are still with GuruFocus today. All of us have grown together and I certainly appreciate your teachings and support over the years. *** If twenty years ago I hadn't foreseen that I would still be working on GuruFocus today, I can now see that I will continue working on it twenty years from now. I love what I do. I enjoy talking to our users. Without your trust and support, GuruFocus would not be where it is today. I love working with everyone on our team. They are the ones who added all the data, created all the tools, and embraced the new technologies. I appreciate their hard work. If you haven't already, I strongly encourage you to start a Free Trial of GuruFocus. You will find that it helps you discover good investment ideas, save time, and avoid mistakes, making your investing more profitable and your life more enjoyable. You won't be charged if you cancel at any time before the end of the trial. Furthermore, if you are not satisfied and cancel within 30 days, we will issue you a full refund. This is our 100% money-back guarantee. Sincerely Yours, Charlie Tian, Ph.D. Founder, GuruFocus.com P.S. It's important to note that the subscription price may be tax deductible.
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I just joined GuruFocus for my stock research. Top-notch screeners, informative charts, and in-depth fundamental data. I highly recommend giving it a try. Subscribe now to receive a FREE one month membership with this link: #investing #stocks #GuruFocus gurufocus.com/?r=40b4333eefd…
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GuruFocus Review 2024 buff.ly/47WTJvx
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This December marks the 20-year anniversary of GuruFocus. When I started 20 years ago, I never thought I would work on it for 20 years. This was my original message to users. The numbers are from today. Dear Users, As the founder of GuruFocus.com, many people naturally assume that I have a degree in finance or some other closely related field. However, I actually possess a Ph.D. in physics. I worked as a research scientist at a giant telecommunications company, published many scientific papers and was awarded 35 U.S. and international patents. But I had one problem: I had absolutely no knowledge whatsoever when it came to investing. At the peak of the internet bubble, I was buying shares of fiber optic companies which I thought had the brightest future. My fiber optics stocks quickly doubled and tripled. Making money with stocks was easy, I thought. Then the bubble burst... It was then that I learned about Warren Buffett, Ben Graham and Peter Lynch. Learning, Growing and Building Confidence I forgot exactly how I found out about Peter Lynch following the burst of the internet bubble. It was through Peter Lynch's books that I learned about Warren Buffett, and his mentor, Ben Graham. I then read all of Buffett's shareholder and partnership letters of the last 40 years. Upon finishing these letters, I was exhausted. I felt like a hungry man who had his first full meal in his life. I was thinking: "This is the right way to invest. This is the right way to invest!" I realized that successful investing is about knowledge, and about hard work. It is a life-long learning process. There is no other secret to successful investing. Only through learning can you build confidence in your investment decision making. Knowledge and confidence help you to think rationally and independently, especially during market panics and euphoria, when rational and independent thinking is needed the most. The good part is, if you learn, you will get better. It is very rewarding, too. Standing on the Shoulders of Giants But there are more than 10,000 stocks traded in the US market alone. Where do we get started? An idea came to my mind then: Why not generate my ideas from the portfolios of the best investors? If I started from the stocks that some of the best investors had already researched, won't my risk of being wrong drop dramatically? And thus, in December of 2004, GuruFocus was born. As a physicist by training, I feel that the idea of GuruFocus is exactly like what Isaac Newton said: "If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants." A Service Unlike Any Other The idea didn't stop with just what stocks the Gurus are buying or selling. We focus on why they buy or sell the stocks, and how they do their research. This has transformed GuruFocus into a value investing research platform with various value screeners and research tools. Every month we also publish newsletters which analyze stocks following the processes of Warren Buffett, Ben Graham and other value investing giants. All of the stock screeners were developed because they follow the strategies that have been proven to work by investment Gurus in their multi-decade investment careers. The financial data and valuation tools are the ones that are most important in analyzing and validating these investment ideas. I built these screeners and valuation tools originally for my own investing and they are now the only ones that I use in my investment decision making process. We don't offer you get-rich-quick stock tips. We want you to grow, learn and build confidence in your own decision making. Because, above all, you are the one who will make these investment decisions for yourself. Global Bargain Hunting With the success of the US market, we expanded our coverage to global. Now all of our screeners and valuations tools work just as well for the stock markets of Canada, Europe, Asia and Australia/New Zealand. You can screen for the stocks following Warren Buffett's strategy globally and research them in the same depth as for US stocks. Sometimes bargains are easier to find somewhere else. Didn't Warren Buffett make a killing with PetroChina and Korean stocks when no one else was paying attention to them? Now he is investing more in the European market. Try It for Free and Without Obligation Put our statements to the test by taking a no-obligation free trial of our Premium Membership - a perfect way to get acquainted with GuruFocus. If you decide to stay with us, it's just $499 a year. And here's my guarantee: Should GuruFocus not measure up to your expectations, you may cancel within the trial period and you won't be charged a penny. If you change your mind any time during the subscription, we will issue you a pro-rated refund. No questions asked. Since started in 2004, GuruFocus has never had even one complaint at the Better Business Bureau. That is why GuruFocus is rated an A+ Accredited Business by BBB. Furthermore, if you are not satisfied and cancel within 30 days, we will issue you a full refund. This is our 100% money back guarantee. Who Are Our Subscribers We now have more than 40,000 users daily to our site. 40,014 investors have subscribed to our premium membership. Our users focus on long-term successful investing, and are the most intelligent group of investors on the internet. We have subscribers ranging from individual investors to investment advisors of almost all brokerage firms, big and small, and to analysts and fund managers of multibillion-dollar mutual fund and hedge fund firms. Many "Gurus" that we follow are also our subscribers themselves. An Investment in Success I cannot promise you that success will be instantly yours if you start subscribing to GuruFocus. But reading our articles, following the proven investing strategies and taking advantage of our research tools will greatly reduce your risks in investing and improve your long-term returns. You will learn, gain confidence and become a better investor. Sincerely Yours, Charlie Tian, Ph.D. Founder, GuruFocus.com P.S. It's important to note that the subscription price may be tax deductible.
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$CELH Fair Value estimate: $79.59, based on @gurufocus analysis
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Thanks to all who have voted and contributed 🙏 Very interesting outcome with $WBA on top. Gurufocus suggests the company is heavily undervalued and sports a dividend yield above 11% and a forward PE of 5.
Hello Dividend Investors, was just looking at depressed US large cap dividend stocks. Which company would you buy for your dividend portfolio? $PFE $WBA $NKE
19%Pfizer
38%Wallgreens
24%Nike
19%None-Please comment
37 votes • Final results
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