Co-Founder & CEO @steadymd
St. Louis, MO
Joined June 2009
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Guy Friedman retweeted
Go crazy St. Louis 🍾🏆
Epic scenes at Amsterdam Tavern in St. Louis for @stlCITYsc's U.S. Open Cup Championship win!
Guy Friedman retweeted
People who cured / are curing their own cancer on X:
1/ @sytses - bone cancer, billionaire founder of Gitlab, developed 10+ personalized therapies for himself.
2/ @paul_conyngham - shrank his dog Rosie's mast cell cancer tumors after chemo and surgery weren't enough. Now backed by YC and Founders Fund
3/ @miriamgonp - stage 4 breast cancer, tumor sequenced, searching for vaccine manufacturer now
4/ @kevinace - stage 4 lung cancer, angel investor in 300+ companies, first drug stopped working after 18 months. Vaccine designed, now paying $300k out of pocket for the vaccine
5/ @masonbgrant: going founder mode on his his 32-year-old wife's rare liver cancer, sequencing her tumor with AI agents
6/ @ArunRLverma: former product leader at Atoms and Shopify, brain tumor, built a vaccine from his tumor. Now building an AI health agent startup based on what he went through
We're going to make it
Guy Friedman retweeted
BREAKING: The FDA just granted accelerated approval to the first immunotherapy for a leading cause of cancer death in U.S. men under 50. This therapy allows certain patients to skip radiation, chemo, and surgery altogether.
Healthy for US IMO
A new look. A shared ambition. One United Soccer League.
Rooted in communities across the country. Connected by our love of the game. United by the belief that soccer belongs to everyone.
United for Soccer.
Launching January 2027.
Discover more: uslsoccer.com/brand
Guy Friedman retweeted
Remember the Starbucks effect? It's faded: homes near a Starbucks are worth just 16% more than otherwise similar places. Meet the Club Pilates effect: homes nearby are 64% higher.
What a journey for @Foursquare
"Almost exactly a month ago, Foursquare was acquired, marking the end of a 17-year story that started around my kitchen table in the East Village in 2009.
The Foursquare acquisition was a $0 outcome for equity holders – $0 for preferred, $0 for common. It’s bittersweet to see these details surface publicly – at least now there’s an opportunity to comment on them."
Man.
teendrama.substack.com/p/som…
Is there any healthcare issue with such 180-degree news then peptides on X? One set of streams it’s getting banned & everyone being sued, on the other it’s just about to be legalized and boom.
Guy Friedman retweeted
What is different this time is the percentage of venture dollars going into a small number of companies by an even smaller number of venture firms. This concentration of capital is unprecedented.
So where does this leave the rest of the industry with a smaller quantum of dollars but a larger n of firms? Feeling squeezed at both ends. The cost of entry in the consensus companies is beyond reach while the access to capital to support non-consensus businesses is sharply constrained.
Only the strong, the visionary and those with unwavering conviction in the non consensus will survive this super cycle. Thousands of firms will be the walking dead, while a small set will survive and emerge from the ashes of the inevitable washout even stronger.
So which group are you in? Unless you know you’ve got what it takes to win and can sell this vision to LPs and founders alike, you’re toast.
Welcome to early stage non-consensus venture investing c.2026.
@gamechangersvc
Pricing in venture is wilder than ever.
$100M pre-seed is now normal.
Bessemer just raised $1.75BN for “early” and $4BN for growth.
So can you even do seed today without $1BN?
- Is capital truly one of the last remaining moats?
- Do all small seed funds and mid-sized firms just fade into irrelevance?
- Does entry price matter anymore when there are $TRN companies…
- Is this real or a bubble that is about to burst
I sat down with @spdholakia to discuss this and have added my notes from the discussion below.
1. This Is a Supercycle Like Never Before
Sameer has spent 31 years in software and has felt magic only a handful of times. A trillion-dollar supercycle followed every one of those moments, and he notes that it does not happen very often.
What is different and what is similar to prior cycles @altcap @infoarbitrage
2. Capital Is a Moat Today
Markets pick winners and the choice becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as it did when developers settled on SendGrid and Twilio. In legal AI, big law firms name just two major providers. Capital lets leaders scale at an extraordinary pace and build a brand, which draws talent and customers in a reinforcing flywheel.
Do you agree with this @venkyganesan @dafrankel
3. Who Wins and Who Loses in the Future of Venture Capital?
As industries professionalize, firms must be either a giant global platform that consolidates or an extreme specialist, such as an early-stage AI investor in San Francisco. Sameer counts Bessemer as a big global platform. Firms caught in between face a hard world to make money.
Is it go big or go home @rodriscoll @rabois @chetanp
4. The Rationale for Why Anthropic Would Compete With the Hyperscalers and Why We Invested
As in the cloud era, AI would be massively capital intensive, so it would consolidate to a handful of players with hundreds of apps on top. Microsoft had partnered with OpenAI and Google was building Gemini, while AWS had an undistinctive internal model and had just invested heavily in Anthropic.
5. Why Price Does Not Matter in a World of AI and the Metric That Truly Determines Value
Bessemer invested in Abridge at $5M of ARR for a $700M to $800M valuation, in Anthropic at roughly 150 times current ARR, and led Legora's $1.8B round at $20M of ARR. Sameer judges these deals on what the company can become in the next twelve months.
How has your relationship to price changed in a world of AI @mignano @mmurph
6. Why the Rise of Open Models Does Not Denigrate the Market for Closed Models
In a market this large, predicting the mix between closed and open tokens with any precision is irrelevant. Consumers, enterprises and governments will all want different flavors of intelligence. Bessemer has invested in both Anthropic and Fireworks to hold exposure to closed and open tokens.
Love to hear how you think about this @lqiao @bernhardsson
7. Why It Is a Permanent Structural Shift That Companies Will Stay Private for Longer, but Why It Will Open in 2028
With more dollars and more firms in private venture, companies will stay private longer, and most of the run-up in this boom will happen in private markets. Sameer still expects an unlock in IPOs later next year and in 2028.
Love to hear your thoughts on this @bgurley and how you see it evolving in 24 months?
(links in comments)
Guy Friedman retweeted
KYLIAN MBAPPE WHAT A GOAL !!!!! xitter.cf/alaskafreezys/status/2…
Guy Friedman retweeted
Missouri’s history is really unique. St. Louis was founded by the French, and had good relations with the natives. It became part of America through the Louisiana purchase. Americans settled along the Mississippi. Osage war bands attacked the settlements leading to a war, the result was to push the Osage west. (They later joined the confederates). Germans came into the new territory to farm and founded dozens of towns in the Ozark mountains. It means cities like St Louis have large influences from the French, the English and Germans. When it joined the Union it couldn’t decide if it was in the north or south. A new piece of legislation was created to solve this. Missouri remained straddling the line and during the civil war brother really did fight brother in Missouri. Militias joined both sides. Even geographically the state is split in two. The north is flat farmlands, the south is mountainous, filled with rivers and streams. It’s one of the most bio diverse places in North America. It has giant salamanders, bears and wildcats, even a native freshwater jellyfish.
Hard to believe strolling through Manhattan on a random Tuesday and every restaurant packed
BREAKING: The number of restaurants in New York dropped ~2,000 YoY in Q1 2026, posting its largest YoY decline in at least 36 years.
This surpasses even the worst contraction recorded in any quarter during the 2020 pandemic.
The number of eating and drinking places in New York State has now declined YoY for 4 consecutive quarters, its longest streak since 2021.
This comes as restaurants are facing surging operating expenses, including insurance premiums, wages, interest rates, utilities, and health coverage, with overall costs rising faster than national averages.
Last year, employee health insurance costs jumped +12.9% for New York-area service firms, business insurance rose +7.0%, while utility costs surged +8.5%, according to the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce.
Skyrocketing costs are crushing New York restaurants.
Guy Friedman retweeted
Interesting that almost every form of social activity has dropped over the last 30 years except going to concerts. That has increased and probably at a very high record level. Their value rose probably because the alternatives have weakened.
When will this effect Google/Amazon revenue in a meaningful way?
More than 1 in 3 Americans bought something based on an AI recommendation in the past year
44% say AI helps them find better value for money
34% would pay more for a product if AI showed it was the best option for them
Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/this-week-in-cha…
