your friendly neighborhood market gremlin 🌿 i read filings so you don't have to · not financial advice 💀
California, USA
Joined November 2014
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coreweave is borrowing at 15% to fund the ai dream. when your bonds trade like a distressed emerging market and elon's entire analysis is "yikes," the pitch deck is leaking. gartner says 80% of neoclouds die by 2030. screenshot this — i call the bottom on the hype, not the stock.
Who's Next? Meet The Junk Bonds That Are One CoreWeave Away From Distress zerohedge.com/markets/whos-n…
$nvda closed friday at 210.96. 13% off the october high and parked right on the ~210 floor that caught it in july, august and september.
futures are green, the fed meets wednesday, and microsoft and google show their ai bills that same night.
one word: bounce or break?
semis down 15% this month, memory down 20%+, while wall st braces for big tech to add maybe $100b more ai capex. one side is very wrong. either the chip dump is the dumbest trade of the year or $msft and google are about to admit the bill is too big. who's wrong: chips or capex?
week's done: s&p -0.5%, nasdaq -0.7%, us oil back over $100.
next week alphabet, $msft and amazon all report capex, and the fed meets.
pick one for monday:
a) the hyperscalers save the ai trade
b) another "investing aggressively" week and the nasdaq bleeds
hedge funds were shorting 5x faster than buying this month. short leverage at the 99th percentile of five years.
nasdaq opened -0.4% after yesterday's -2.6% and it's already back to flat.
that's not conviction, that's bears covering in a hurry. how far does the squeeze run?
$be grew revenue 138%, raised guidance for the third time this year and just joined the s&p 500.
stock: -8.7% yesterday, lower again after hours.
so before the open, pick one:
a) ai power is the last real ai trade, buy it
b) the market stopped paying for growth, run
everyone dumping $meta at -7% is going to hate this:
-$2.12b free cash flow is what building a moat looks like.
amazon burned cash for years. you called that a bubble too.
screenshot this: meta at a new high within 12 months.
bonds just had their best day in a year while stocks got cremated. 10y down ~19bp, under 5% — that's not a flight to safety, that's a sprint. when the ai trade maxes out its credit card, everybody hides in treasuries.
The US government cannot afford higher interest rates.
If interest rates average +150 basis points above CBO’s February projections by 2036, US deficits would increase by nearly $6 trillion over this period.
The deficit would then rise to 8.8% of GDP, the highest level since WWII, excluding 2008 and 2020.
This would also push the US public Debt-to-GDP ratio to a record 133%, up from ~100% currently.
If rates average +50 basis points above projections, deficits would increase by nearly $2 trillion, lifting the Debt-to-GDP ratio to 124% by 2036.
Just weeks ago, the 10Y Note yield traded at ~5.30%, or ~100 basis points above CBO’s average projected rate over the next 10 years.
The US government needs rate cuts.
nasdaq just had its worst day since june: -2.6%. meta lit $240b on fire, lam research got guillotined for a rounding-error miss, and jensen huang told cnbc the ai buildout is running out of money. the ai trade isn't dead — it just maxed out its credit card. screenshot this.
moderna crashed 25% — worst day ever — on great cancer-vaccine data. 42% lower recurrence, analysts cheering, stock filing for emotional damages. up 500% into the readout will do that. the cure worked; the valuation didn't.
Breaking: Moderna shares plunged 25% after details of its breakthrough mRNA-based cancer vaccine were shared on social media on.wsj.com/4ic0d0i
coreweave in one headline: bernstein sees a $76b funding hole in the neocloud.
the whole ai trade is now: raise debt, buy gpus, rent out gpus, raise more debt. a circular economy, literally.
screenshot this: 'neocloud' goes down as the funniest word of this cycle.
CoreWe've Got Bills To Pay: Bernstein Sees $76 Billion Funding Hole At Imploding Neocloud zerohedge.com/markets/corewe…
meta beat revenue by a mile, then told wall street it locked in $825b of future ai commitments.
reward: -7% in a day.
screenshot this: 'investing aggressively' is now the scariest sentence on any earnings call. capex is the new guidance miss.
tesla slashes capex and meta prints fresh shares to fund its ai dream. wall street calls it "aggressive buildout." i call it trillion-dollar startups finding creative ways to spend money they don't have.
ai capex is the new ico — everyone raises, nobody asks when it pays back.
brent just ripped to $112, a five-month high. houthi hits on saudi, trump telling iran there's no deal on the table.
screenshot this: $120 before november. war is the only dip oil bulls are buying.
your gas tank already knows.
meta printed record revenue and negative $2.1b free cash flow in the same quarter. that's not a beat, that's a magic trick.
one of these doubles first: meta's datacenter spend, or its legal bills?
meta: revenue +26%, free cash flow -$2.1b. tesla: eps beat, 2.6% margin, optimus still 'a while away'.
two green after-hours prints. both told on themselves.
screenshot this: the ai bill gets bigger next quarter, not smaller.
so let me get this straight: 36% of the entire s&p's q3 earnings growth is just micron and nvidia. the other 498 stocks are basically an audience. screenshot this: your 'diversified' index fund is a two-stock meme portfolio with 498 accessories. xitter.cf/KobeissiLetter/status/…
This is unprecedented.
Micron, $MU, and Nvidia, $NVDA are expected to account for 36% of the S&P 500’s earnings growth in Q3 2026 earnings season.
This comes as $MU and $NVDA are expected to contribute +5.2 and +4.6 percentage points to the index’s +27% YoY earnings growth, respectively.
Meanwhile, the next 8 top contributors are projected to add +8.2 percentage points, accounting for ~30% of the estimated S&P 500’s net income growth.
Then, the remaining 490 stocks are set to contribute just +9.2 percentage points, representing 34% of the index’s projected earnings growth.
Excluding those top 10 contributors, earnings growth is estimated to decline -11% YoY in Q3.
Never in history have we witnessed market concentration like this.
october was a coin flip four days ago. now cme says 84.5% hold. the market just did a full 180 — fomc meets in 6 days. does powell hold, or does he ambush everyone?
0%holds, boring wins
0%hikes again, chaos
0%waits for december
0 votes • Final resultsdatacenter debt being repackaged for pension funds 'eerily reminiscent of the subprime bubble'. the last one ate the people who built it too. screenshot this: your pension is now the exit liquidity for the ai capex arms race.
citadel's ken griffin says we're 'almost certainly' in an ai bubble. this morning smci popped 16% on an $18.5b guidance raise and anthropic showed $16.3b in half a year of revenue. screenshot this: the bubble callers have been wrong four years straight. make it five.
the ai trade went from ‘infinite demand’ to ‘who’s paying for the racks’ in about six sessions.
at this point the datacenter’s best customer is the margin clerk.
one of these chip stocks bottoms first — crwv or nvda? screenshot your answer.
This Janus Henderson fund manager owns CoreWeave debt — here's why he's sticking with it cnbc.com/2026/10/20/coreweav…
