Sunday Evening Video Discussion on the potential for a storm to develop later in the week. Video is about 14 mins and discusses the uncertainties, the synoptic background and the key things to watch on the models as we go through the week. This video is not a forecast and does not go into immense detail of which locations are likely to see what strength winds. That detail will come later. youtu.be/wgo4WSeQWv0

Potentially Likely to see the 1st named storm of the NW Europe Storm season later this week, either named by The UK Met Office / Met Eireann or Meteo France as we have the potential for a deep low to develop and move close to or near the UK. There are currently significant uncertainties where this Low develops and how much it develops and there is plenty of Model Disagreement and there is ensemble disagreement too. I will be recording a short video later today and will post this evening when i will run through the current uncertainties and go over the models and show why we have differences in the model evolutions.

The Northern Hemisphere Jet Streams look set to intensify and become more zonal over the next 2 weeks according to the Global Models which are trending towards a very broad and intensifying Polar Jet of 180 Knt+ over Eastern Asia, and a strengthening Sub Tropical Jet emanating from the Eastern North Pacific and cutting east across The southern and SE united states. This is the Jet stream positions that i expect to be dominant through the much of the upcoming Winter This over the Atlantic Space is likely to see an increasing risk of deepening depressions coming east across the Atlantic with the 00Z and 12 Z ECMWF both suggesting rapidly developing lows moving east towards the UK. The 00Z ECM was very developmental, the 12Z GFS has moved in that direction as well In the shorter term, the high pressure block whilst impressive in the short term hardly looks likely to hang around long with the Jet likely to push it smartly eastwards, and part of the reason it will also get pushed east is the large upper vortex at 500mbs which will rotate west over Northern France and then merge and get absorbed into a 500mb trough coming in from the SW. The PV will erode the edge edge of the high from both the South and SW and then West hence the intrusions will make significant inroads into the High and allow the Jet to punch east quite smartly next week. Risk of some potentially very wet and windy weather coming in from the SW mid next week.