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SHORT POST: #RelianceJio IPO   I haven’t heard a single critique of this IPO from anyone so far. So on the festive season of Dussehra, that stands for the victory of good over evil, I don’t want to be the evil one. Having said this, here are some facts.   The basics The IPO is just a 3% share dilution that wipes off the Rs 30K debt. 3% sale will create a scramble & scarcity premium where people want to grab a share of the story. There is no real price discovery on such low free float. Jio is trying to benchmark Airtel at $110 - 120 BN and add a reliance growth premium to that. The strategy  for IPO pricing seems fine relative to India valuation basket. But the argument look overstretched when we compare to global players. Verizon and AT&T are valued at $177 BN & $154 BN respectively.   Jio at $16 Billion revenue & 14% growth rate (5 year avg), it may take another 20 years to catch up to AT&T revenues (Assume rupee depreciation rate of 4%). But Jio is asking for almost 70% of market cap as of the American peers today. So clearly, asking IPO price is not comparable internationally. But considering Airtel valuations, it seems okay.   The Headwinds: The listing would make Jio one of the top 5 companies in India on market cap. How much future returns do you expect from top 5 company in India for next decade? You decide.The buy case gets weaker when we examine the 14% revenue growth achieved largely on the growth of 530 Million subscribers. Compared to the avg ARPU of $45 for American counterparts, the ARPU for Indian wireless customers has stayed notoriously stagnant below  $2 per month (INR 200) since last 20 years (on nominal basis). So the bull case of rapidly improving ARPU looks like an impossibility given the experience of last 2 decades.   Final take: If this gets a listing pop or appreciation of 30%, we’re looking at the biggest telecom company in the world on market cap. Ready for that. ? In a market devoid of serious technology plays & overstretched valuations, investors would latch on to anything that promises enterprise technology driven future. The IPO market may be underestimating the investments that are needed to be that technology player vs what it is today – a utility telecom services provider. Hope that doesn’t make me the evil one. Enjoy the party. My discussion with NDTV Profit.