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🇦🇺🇯🇵 Macroeconomist at BoE 🏦 Opinions my own 📚 @ U.Milan+Pavia PhD👨🏻‍🎓UWA, Keio 慶應, @OxfordEconDept alumnus

Milano, Lombardia
Joined March 2013
Photo by David Murakami (@hirothreading)Photo by David Murakami (@hirothreading)Photo by David Murakami (@hirothreading)Photo by David Murakami (@hirothreading)Photo by David Murakami (@hirothreading)Photo by David Murakami (@hirothreading)Photo by David Murakami (@hirothreading)Photo by David Murakami (@hirothreading)Photo by David Murakami (@hirothreading)Photo by David Murakami (@hirothreading)
I set up a new website to host my working papers, notes, and teaching material. E.g., here are my notes on postgrad macroeconomics: hirothreading.github.io/macr… Please feel free to use and share — but do be on the lookout for typos! I’ll have to do a major typo fix at some point…
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David Murakami retweeted
Our paper on the availability of wage information in job postings is now in Labour Economics. Data is high quality and tells an important story: employers really don't tend to include wages in their ads. Important facts for thinking through how labor markets work.
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Recently, I received a review of a text of mine (which I wrote based on a text written by myself) saying it was 21% human. Of course I never thought to verify it was not AI as I did the job. As a non-native English speaker I must check my grammar and spelling mistakes. Is that process enough to move a 100% human written text to a 21% when you had at most 5 corrected mistakes? Turns out I submitted myself the original text and it said 85% human… so I went from a bias of 15pp to 79pp after my checks. This verification process only benefits native speakers who can confidently trust their own words. A huge disadvantage for people coming from a non-English speaking background.
I reproduced this false positive for pangram. It is a text from Victor Hugo.
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Review of Economic Studies is happy to announce the launch of the new journal, Review of Economic Studies: Insights. This is an open-access, general-interest economics journal that will publish short papers with a fast review process and accept/reject decisions. 1/4
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The silver lining of AI in econ research: replications and accuracy should significantly improve. The amount of articles that were published in the 2000s — coinciding with big advancements in computational power but janky software/code — I’ve tried but failed to replicate…
I am retracting this. It appears that the article is miscoded. The month labeled as the month of Ramadan in the paper corresponds to the month before Ramadan in the data. More below:
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Well done Gonzalo! Super proud of your work!!
Thrilled to receive this recognition! I'm very grateful to my coauthors, Daniel Osuna-Gómez and Luis Sarmiento, for such a great collaboration. This is especially meaningful as I enter the 2026–27 economics job market.
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The "China shock" narrative illustrates why the lack of debate is a problem in economics. Autor et al. published a series of articles that have since been falsified by subsequent research. However, few realize this, which means the articles persist, like zombies. 1/8
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David Murakami retweeted
Bocconi Economics is hiring! Two tenure-track Assistant Professor positions for JUNIOR candidates (PhD students or PhD on/after Sept 1, 2023). All fields, start Fall 2027, 8-year tenure-track contract. Deadline: November 15, 2026 Links below 👇 #EconJobMarket #EconTwitter
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Check it out!
New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP21876 Productivity and Inflation Dynamics Maria Ludovica Ambrosino @LBS, Jenny Chan @bankofengland, Silvana Tenreyro @LSEnews @LSEEcon ow.ly/hkkx50ZFaUH #CEPR_IMF #CEPR_MEF #EconTwitter
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📣We are hiring❗️ Both at the Assistant Prof level and **experienced** AP level. @Unibocconi Come join Bocconi Economics. 👇👇
Bocconi Economics is hiring! First up: Two tenure-track Assistant Professor positions for EXPERIENCED candidates (PhD before Sept 1, 2023). All fields, start Fall 2027, 6-year tenure-track contract. Deadline: Oct 5, 2026 Links below 👇 #EconJobMarket
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🚨 New Paper Draft🚨 How do families share income risk across borders? We use 150m+ transactions from a global money transfer operator (MTO) to study remittances at high frequency, and build an open-economy HANK model with cross-border families. Joint with @adisoenarjo 1/10
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I have very mixed feelings about this. If not handled correctly, this will be a disaster to the field.
We’re proud to announce that Refine has signed partnerships with two leading publishers in economics. Both the American Economic Association and the Econometric Society now use Refine’s AI-assisted technical verification as part of their publication processes. 1/
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🚨 New Draft: “Productivity and Inflation Dynamics” with @CJenGo88 & Silvana Tenreyro 🚨 Recent technological breakthroughs raise an important question for policymakers: will higher productivity be inflationary or disinflationary? 1/ drive.google.com/file/d/1Okq…
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David Murakami retweeted
Claude Fable 5 will be available again globally tomorrow. After a series of productive conversations with the US government, we're redeploying the model with a new set of classifiers to target and block more cybersecurity tasks. In the near term, some routine tasks like coding and debugging will fall back to Opus 4.8. We’ll continue to refine these classifiers over the coming weeks to reduce false positives and better distinguish genuine misuse from legitimate requests. We’ve also begun drafting a consensus framework—with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and other Glasswing partners—for assessing the severity of AI jailbreaks and how AI developers should respond to them. We invite other industry partners and model providers to join us in this effort. Finally, we’re scaling up our collaboration with the US government on model testing and safeguards. This will include pre-release access to models and safeguards for evaluation, information sharing on jailbreaks and misuse, and dedicated resources for joint research. Thank you to our users for your patience, and to our partners across the government, industry, and the research community who worked alongside us to make Fable 5 available again. Read our full blog: anthropic.com/news/redeployi…
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📢 Call for Papers – 12th BdF–BoE–BdI International Macroeconomics Workshop 📍 London, 13 Nov 2026 Organised by @bancaditalia, @bankofengland & @banquedefrance Topic: “New Risks in International Macro and Finance” 🎤 Keynote: Oleg Itskhoki (Harvard) @itskhoki 📅 Deadline: 28 June 2026 👉 Details & submission: bankofengland.co.uk/events/2… #CallForPapers #Macroeconomics #Finance #EconResearch #Geopolitics
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David Murakami retweeted
Some reports by economists on Fable: > @joshgans: "While previous AI models were enthusiastic but slightly incompetent PhD students, this is something more; maybe along the lines of a future Nobel prize winner as a PhD student." > Vincent Grégoire (@CodesFinance): "[Fable]'s report was an eye-opener. It actually managed to find closed-form solutions to a few of the proofs that all the previous models only managed to solve numerically. This is not easy math. ... [It also] identified many issues that Opus, Codex, Coarse, and Refine (and me) had missed. ... Again, all it took was one prompt for Fable to update everything." - Actual output Vincent got from Fable: github.com/fintech-research/… - Vincent's article: vincent.codes.finance/posts/… - Josh's article: joshuagans.substack.com/p/th…
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David Murakami retweeted
📢 #CallForPapers: @EUI_EU – CEPR Conference on Frontier Research on Fiscal Policy 🗓️ 15-16 October |📍EUI, Florence Submissions welcome on all aspects of the macroeconomics of fiscal policy. Organisers: Giancarlo Corsetti @AxelleFerriere @ilzetzki @LeonardoMelosi 🗓️ Deadline: 10 July 2026, 23:59 BST 🔗 ow.ly/h85c50Z9NQo
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David Murakami retweeted
Fable 5 is state-of-the-art on nearly all tested benchmarks, with exceptional performance in software engineering, knowledge work, scientific research, and vision. The longer and more complex the task, the larger Fable 5’s lead over our other models.
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