Howard Silverblatt

Retired 1/31, but will continue; unexpected observations today-went to $WMT Groceries (1st time) & spent $30, compared to my usual mkt where it w/b $50-now I personally understand (compared to the income & Bal/Sheet #s) why $WMT became the 10th $trillion company last month

$SPX total return contributions for Jan,’26 For Jan,’26 the $SPX total return was 1.45% & w/o the Mag 7 it was 1.55%; fr Y2K (12/1999) the 7 accounted for 24.3%, with $AAPL accounting for 10.0% (after almost 49 years at S&P, today is my last day; may the trades be with you)

$SPX and major indices returns as of January 2026 (I will be retiring from S&P on January 31, 2026)

What did you toast for Y2K? Fr 12/1999, the $SPX is up 668% w/div & the largest contributor is $AAPL, accounting for 10.0% of the return, then $XOM with 3.9%, $AMZN(3.7%), $NVDA (2.9%) & $MSFT(2.7%); top 5:23.1%, top 10:34.0% (I will be retiring from S&P at the end of the month)

Decomposing $SPX Q3 2025 Operating Earnings and the Mag 7

The $SPX quarterly income tax rate for Q3 2025 was 22.07%, up from the Q2 2025 18.65% rate, down from the Q3 2024 22.29%, lower than the pre-Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017's Q3 2015 25.55% (10 years ago), and 39% less than the Q3 2000 36.02% rate (25 years ago)

U.S. Common Indicated Dividend Payments increase $13.1 billion for Q4 2025 as growth continued to be slow; 2025 increased $46.4 billion vs 2024’s $53.3 billion

$SPX total return contributions for Dec,’25 & 2025 For Dec,’25 the S&P 500 total return was 0.06% & w/o the Magnificent 7 it was -0.18%; for 2025 it was 17.88% & 10.36%, as the Mag 7 accounted for 42.0% of the 2025 gain & represented 34.9% of the mkt val (33.5% at year-end 2024)

$SPX and major indices returns as of December 2025

The $SPX 1-year bottom-up consensus target price is 7997, a 15.4% gain from the current 6930 level; the Magnificent 7 accounts for 45.0% of the expected gain, with $NVDA accounting for 18.5% & MSFT 11.6% - 14% of the market value & 30% of the expected gain

$SPX Q3’25 buybacks post modest 6.2% rebound after Q2 20.1% decrease to $$249B from Q2’s $235B and the record Q1,’25’s $293.5B; Q4 expected to show similar growth

$SPX total return contributions for November 2025 & YTD For Nov,’25 the S&P 500 total return was 0.25% & w/o the Magnificent 7 it was 1.04%; YTD it was 17.81% & 10.24%, accounting for 42.5% of the gain, as they represent 35.2% of the market value (33.5% at year-end 2024)

$SPX and major indices returns as of November 2025

$SPX total return contributions for Oct,'25 & YTD For Oct,’25 the S&P 500 total return was 2.34% & without the Magnificent 7 it was 0.44% (as the Mag 7 accounted for 81% of the return); YTD it was 17.52% & 9.34% (47%); fr the April 8, 2025 recent low it was 38.23% & 19.15% (50%)

$SPX and major indices returns as of October 2025

U.S. Common Indicated Dividend Payments increase $10.6 billion for Q2 2025 as growth continues to be slow

The $SPX quarterly income tax rate for Q2 2025 was 18.65%, down from the Q1 2025 18.90% rate, down from the Q2 2024 20.51%, significantly lower than the pre-Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017's Q2 2015 29.63% (10 years ago), and 49% less than the Q2 2000 36.28% rate (25 years ago)

Decomposing $SPX Q2 2025 Operating Earnings and the Mag 7

$SPX total return contributions for September 2025 & YTD For Sep,’25 the S&P 500 total return was 3.65% & without the Magnificent 7 it was 1.33% (accounting for 64% of the return); YTD it was 14.83% & 8.69% (41%); from the April 8, 2025 recent low it was 35.07% & 18.28% (48%)

$SPX and major indices returns as of September 2025