We simmed Blazers @ Lakers 5,000 times, every possession, real rotations 🏀
Basically a coin flip: Lakers win 51.8%. Most typical game LAL 112, POR 111
Dame at the Lakers is real: 28.2 PPG and 12-6 in 18 career games there, 39.9% from 3. Sim has him at 21.9 a night on a ~30 min load, 25+ in about a third of runs
Portland's on the glass too, 4th in offensive rebound % so far (only 2 games) after finishing 2nd last year
Simulated game, not a prediction
Called it, almost perfectly. If Saquon wasn’t injured it would have played out perfectly.
Javonte Williams anymore TD ✅
Saquon anytime TD ✅
Ryan Flournoy alt yards 50+ ✅✅✅
Tanner McKee over 200 passing yards ✅
I will continue to provide more info if this gets over 20 likes 👍
My MNF props slip, DAL @ PHI 🏈
Saquon Barkley o2.5 rec: needs a bigger pass-game role. 4 catches in 4 games, never more than 1 in a game
Saquon Barkley o13.5 rec yds: same story. 8 rec yds all season, but he's back and Philly is thin at WR
Tanner McKee o200.5 pass yds: 215 in his only start, vs a Dallas D that's 31st in dropback EPA
Javonte Williams TD: scored in 5 of 6 games, 7 rush TDs
Ryan Flournoy 50+ rec yds: the swing leg. Hit it once in 6 (90 vs TB), but 7 catches on 9 targets last week
My MNF props slip, DAL @ PHI 🏈
Saquon Barkley o2.5 rec: needs a bigger pass-game role. 4 catches in 4 games, never more than 1 in a game
Saquon Barkley o13.5 rec yds: same story. 8 rec yds all season, but he's back and Philly is thin at WR
Tanner McKee o200.5 pass yds: 215 in his only start, vs a Dallas D that's 31st in dropback EPA
Javonte Williams TD: scored in 5 of 6 games, 7 rush TDs
Ryan Flournoy 50+ rec yds: the swing leg. Hit it once in 6 (90 vs TB), but 7 catches on 9 targets last week
This is going to get no love or likes. But I will tell you the script. Barkley going to score first for the Eagles. He is going to have over 60+ receiving yards by the end of the game with over 100+ scrimmage yards.
Tanner McKee is going to look excellent all game.
Ryan Flournoy will be the top receiver with over 100 yards.
Javonte Williams 1 TD
Game ends: 30-28 Cowboys
My guess is the Eagles covers the +4.5 but Cowboys win.
My MNF props slip, DAL @ PHI 🏈
Saquon Barkley o2.5 rec: needs a bigger pass-game role. 4 catches in 4 games, never more than 1 in a game
Saquon Barkley o13.5 rec yds: same story. 8 rec yds all season, but he's back and Philly is thin at WR
Tanner McKee o200.5 pass yds: 215 in his only start, vs a Dallas D that's 31st in dropback EPA
Javonte Williams TD: scored in 5 of 6 games, 7 rush TDs
Ryan Flournoy 50+ rec yds: the swing leg. Hit it once in 6 (90 vs TB), but 7 catches on 9 targets last week
Chased the QQQ relief gap this morning and paid for it.
2x QQQ $727 calls expiring today at $0.27 = $54
QQQ had already topped about 25 min before we got in, then kept making lower highs
Sold both at $0.08 = -$38
Lesson: no same-day calls after a 2% gap unless it pulls back to VWAP and holds, or breaks resistance on volume. Small size kept the damage small.
Got a nice deal on a Rolex from France.
This is the picture of the package, it should be fine
🤖 Made with AI
Wouldn’t shock me if Auburn beats Georgia, they really do have a knack for beating #1s
We will see…
CPI came in hot and SPY had been sitting flat after a week of strength. Bet: news was going to move it hard.
5x SPY $770 puts expiring today at $0.14 = $70
Sold 2 at $0.30, 2 at $0.47, 1 at $1.35
= about +$219 before fees
Lesson: we sold way too early. It ran toward $1.75, and fixed small targets left money on the table. Same-day lottos bleed out fast, so from now on every trade gets charted and exits on chart signals and trailing stops.
Not financial advice.
UCL Matchday 2 card is set ⚽
Early window (9:45 AM PT): BTTS in Lens–Sporting and Sabah–Slavia. Slavia shipped 3 in their opener and Sabah need goals after a 4-0 loss.
Late window (12 PM PT): Arsenal ML (Lille have lost 8 straight away vs English sides), Saka anytime, Atleti ML, Gala–Barca o2.5 (Barça put 5 on MD1), Inter ML, Saibari score or assist, Olise anytime. Saibari's starting at the 10 with Musiala out.
9 picks, 1u each. Let's eat.
Card update before the noon window 🔄
Out: Saka and Saibari, neither is starting.
In: Arsenal-Lille 1H under 1.5, Osimhen anytime (+145), Lautaro anytime (-170), and Olise switched to anytime assist (+100).
Everything else stays. Let's eat.
MNF props cashed 🏈
5-2, +5.79u in BUF's 37-34 OT win
✅ Keon Coleman TD (+250)
✅ Blake Corum TD (+240)
✅ Davante Adams TD (+105), he got 2
✅ Josh Allen TD (-120)
✅ Higbee o2.5 rec (-108), 5 catches
❌ Stafford o0.5 INT
❌ Corum 2+ TDs
On to the next one
MNF props, BUF @ LAR 🏈
Keon Coleman anytime TD (+250): 6 catches, 116 yds and a TD last week vs NE
Blake Corum anytime TD (+240): 162 rush yds on 33 carries behind Kyren
Stafford over 0.5 INT (-105): 6 picks in 4 games, at least one every week, bro
Davante Adams anytime TD (+105): 390 yds and 2 TDs through 4 games
Higbee over 2.5 rec (-108): 5 catches for 67 yds last week at PHI
Small units: Corum 2+ TDs, and Josh Allen anytime TD (-120), who has 7 rush TDs in 4 games
Small plays are small. Let's eat 🍽️
Today's soccer card ⚽
Atalanta ML (-170) vs Venezia
Malmö FF ML (-139) vs Kalmar
KFUM Oslo vs Vålerenga: Draw (+265)
Torino vs Udinese: Draw (+210)
Newcastle ML (+120) at Coventry
Keeping a public record. Results tonight.
Results, Oct 12 (1u flat per pick)
Soccer ⚽
✅ Atalanta ML (-170): Atalanta 3-1 Venezia
✅ Malmö ML (-139): Malmö 1-0 Kalmar
❌ KFUM/Vålerenga draw (+265): KFUM won 2-1
❌ Torino/Udinese draw (+210): Torino won 2-1
❌ Newcastle ML (+120): Coventry 4-1 Newcastle
MNF 🏈 BUF 37-34 LAR (OT)
✅ Coleman ATD (+250): 7-yd TD catch
✅ Corum ATD (+240): 1-yd TD run
✅ Adams ATD (+105): 2 TDs
✅ Higbee o2.5 rec (-108): 5 catches
✅ Allen ATD (-120): 1-yd TD run
❌ Stafford o0.5 INT (-105): 0 INTs on 54 attempts
❌ Corum 2+ TDs: just the 1
Day: 7-5, +4.02u
All-time: 7-5, +4.02u
The soccer card lost money (2-3, -1.69u). Both draws missed and Newcastle got run over. The TD props carried the day.
MNF props, BUF @ LAR 🏈
Keon Coleman anytime TD (+250): 6 catches, 116 yds and a TD last week vs NE
Blake Corum anytime TD (+240): 162 rush yds on 33 carries behind Kyren
Stafford over 0.5 INT (-105): 6 picks in 4 games, at least one every week, bro
Davante Adams anytime TD (+105): 390 yds and 2 TDs through 4 games
Higbee over 2.5 rec (-108): 5 catches for 67 yds last week at PHI
Small units: Corum 2+ TDs, and Josh Allen anytime TD (-120), who has 7 rush TDs in 4 games
Small plays are small. Let's eat 🍽️











