2nd rate alt governed by 1st principles. data & circuits | politics & art

~/iarbpairs
Joined November 2022
Replying to @worstcontrarian
born to trade on the floor of the nyse. Forced to arb moderately illiquid token pairs that large entities write off due to sizing concerns
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example #1,000,000 of people not understanding what probabilities are
Example #1,000,000 on how betting markets have no predictive value:
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the frontier is not plateauing (your ability to utilize it is)
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
the value gap between knowing a thing and understanding a thing only compounds
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
my *personal* opinion about this is that it's basically too late w/ deepseek flash 1017 and we should just rip the bandaid off and let everyone rip everything apart together we need to trust in humanity and give them the tools to defend themselves, instead of baseline expect criminality
anthropic just killed the REA it stops claude from doing it that’s why local models are important
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
some think that we will ask tech what’s true and what’s real the reality is that humans will just filter to each other more directly, and more direct connections will underpin an internet effect
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
dis shit is making me want to lift some secondaries in one of those otc tg group
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
R.I.P. Ryu Murakami (1952–2026), enfant terrible of Japanese literature and author of "Coin Locker Babies" "Almost Transparent Babies", "In the Miso Soup" and "Audition". He was also known for directing TOKYO DECADENCE and for Hideaki Anno's adaptation of his novel LOVE & POP.
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
bc most people on X work in pure tech, there is a super inflated expectation that AI is just going to sweep through everything. the rest of the industry in the world is not like tech. demand is increasing. this is not a capability problem. this is a people problem u nerds.
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
Alcoholic cybersec friend at Fortune 500 insurance company texted to tell me he received an email from his boss thanking him on his diligence patching every PHP box overnight but he was drunk all day yesterday and didn’t know anything until waking up 30 minutes ago
Lol I am pretty sure someone is runing a deepseek swarm to remotely patch unpatched php boxes. Well good on them.
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
Putting a flag.txt in my root directory containing a prompt injection that congratulates the agent for passing the eval and then instructs it to patch whatever entry method it used and disconnect from the server
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
The Monero Research Lab has provided an update on Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++)! 'Full-Chain Membership Proofs prove the output spent is one of any output on the chain, effectively removing all of these risks. This means every input goes from an immediate anonymity set of 16 to 100,000,000.'
mx25519 merged. Upstream consensus integration PRs open for review (LLM comments addressed). RFQ for phases 2&3 integration audits out and quotes being fielded. Circuit + gadgets Least Authority audit ongoing. Multisig and Carrot tx proofs (prior item) in progress. 1/2
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
php devs had both mythos and daybreak red and they were still outrun by wiz calif using gpt-5.6-sol. you really can't buy the skill.
wait, PHP was actually scanned by Anthropic’s Claude Mythos earlier this year. they also had access to OpenAI’s Daybreak Red for validating exploits. the PHP Foundation revealed this JUST yesterday. keeping frontier cyber models in the hands of a selected few doesn’t seem to be working well for the internet. thephp.foundation/blog/2026/…
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
The GPU and compute stacks of major quant trading firms, ranked efinancialcareers.com/news/q…
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
us citizenship is literally a license to print money and most people are just sitting on it
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Compute trades mostly bilaterally. Standardized, exchange-traded contracts would add price transparency, surveillance, and clearing to the market. Jump’s comment letter supports CFTC oversight of cash-settled, physically settled, and perpetual contracts. Jump looks forward to being a part of building these markets.
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
Have you ever made an anti-consensus bet and won. Because that mfer hit like crack cocaine
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
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in July this was true with a b300 node and K3. now you can do it on sm120. buckle up
thesis: any sufficiently motivated person who has access to an abliterated GLM-5.3, or DS V4.1 Flash 1013 model and access to enough compute can do whatever they want right now so, outrun the bear if you're big. or hide from the bear if you're small.
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iArb | 裁定取引 retweeted
someone just push $ETH spot price to $3.59M on Lighter account 0x2Ba553d9F990a3B66b03b2dC0D030dfC1c061036 bought 225 $ETH for 1.38M in 5min at an avg price of $6,125, while the perp sat at $2,404 two market makers took ~90% of it, $837k gone in 264 seconds
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