Policy Analyst at Jack D. Gordon Institute, ex-diplomático in Caracas, Ph.D. (FIU), Expert on Turkey, Venezuela, Latin America

Florida, USA
Joined January 2012
Yazilarimi paylasayim da Venezuela uzmani oldugum belli olsun:) National Interest nationalinterest.org/feature… Miami Herald miamiherald.com/opinion/op-e… Global Americans theglobalamericans.org/autho… Ahval ahvalnews.com/turkey-venezue… Foreign Affairs Latinoamerica revistafal.com/nuevo-espacio…
8
93
2
288
Wow. Diosdado Cabello directly targeted me in his latest livestream, questioning my competence as an analyst. I don’t accuse him of anything. But his documented record of corruption, human rights abuses, and drug-trafficking allegations already speaks for itself.
4
14
2
82
2,864
Many people are starting to pay attention to #Turkey’s role in #Venezuela. But as someone who has studied this relationship for more than a decade, I can say that none of this really surprises me. Lack of transparency has been a defining feature of Turkey-Venezuela relations for years. After Maduro discovered Erdogan and Turkey, the relationship grew closer and closer, partly because Maduro needed economic lifelines to keep his regime afloat, especially when it was struggling with liquidity. The two countries developed a kind of “win-win” cooperation through mechanisms that often lacked transparency. Some of these activities came under scrutiny over potential US sanctions violations. For example, U.S. officials raised concerns that private jets were being used to transport Venezuelan gold to Turkey in exchange for cash or food, potentially helping the Maduro regime bypass U.S. sanctions. In 2019, then-Senator Marco Rubio warned Turkey against becoming “accomplices” in the illicit shipment of Venezuelan gold. I look at today’s developments through the same lens. It is possible that Maduro and other regime figures have built financial connections in Turkey, potentially giving them options for the future. If some of these figures are eventually forced to leave Venezuela and look for a safe haven, Turkey could be one of their destinations. That’s why I’m paying close attention to the unusual private jet traffic between Turkey and Venezuela. Given the history of this relationship, I don’t see these developments as isolated events.
De regreso a Estambul🇹🇷, no duró ni 24 horas..🤨🕐 🔹El primer vuelo fue el día 07/10, estadía: 16 horas 🔹El segundo el día 15/10, estadía: 16 horas 🔹El tercero hoy 21/10, estadía: 19 horas El avión no ha hecho desde el 07/10, otra cosa que no sea la ruta Maiquetia-Estambul ida y vuelta, mientras esta en Turquía permanece parado en Estambul. Este patron no parece estar relacionado con un productor de television que venga a Venezuela por negocios.. 🤷‍♂️🤔
3
38
2
72
3,863
Imdat Oner retweeted
As countries across Latin America deepen their ties with this new version of Chavismo, remarkably little has changed in Venezuela to justify the rapprochement. Diosdado Cabello, a longtime Chavista figure associated with years of human rights abuses, remains interior minister. Rodríguez's brother, Jorge, heads the National Assembly. The new defense minister previously led the intelligence service and has been sanctioned by the United States, Canada and the European Union over repression under his command. The human rights group Foro Penal still counted 344 political prisoners in September, and there is still no established timetable for elections. Ten months after the U.S. operation to capture Maduro, the main obstacle to democratization is now the political and institutional system that has survived him. responsiblestatecraft.org/ve…
2
88
2
121
4,865
The only realistic window for elections in Venezuela seems to be late 2028, when Trump’s term ends and he will no longer care about Venezuela. But at that moment, without US pressure, Delcy would have little incentive to hold elections and could easily postpone it into the 2030s.
#Venezuela: En la última pregunta de esta entrevista, le preguntan a Dinorah Figuera si cree que las elecciones serán el año que viene (2027) y concluye su respuesta afirmando: "esperemos que sea por lo menos a finales del próximo año o a comienzos de 2027". Pero puede interpretarse que realmente se refería a comienzos de 2028.
15
30
4
85
3,799
The agreement also offers long-lasting protections for Betancourt and unnamed investors. It requires a supermajority vote of five to oust Betancourt as CEO, change the board composition or execute any transactions with a shareholder that isn’t the U.S. government, an indirect equity holder, director, affiliate or “immediate family members.”
New: The Trump administration committed the U.S. to taking a large stake in a Venezuelan company, some of whose owners and investors are shielded from public view. The exact details of the agreement over oil fields had remained unclear — until now. propub.li/3UdAtIG
4
26
35
1,920
.@imdat_oner : Even more ironic is that the governments now getting closer to Delcy Rodríguez in VZ spent years criticizing Brazil and Mexico for failing to exert sufficient pressure on Maduro. responsiblestatecraft.org/ve…
3
4
633
As countries across Latin America deepen their ties with this new version of Chavismo, remarkably little has changed in Venezuela to justify the rapprochement. Diosdado Cabello, a longtime Chavista figure associated with years of human rights abuses, remains interior minister. Rodríguez's brother, Jorge, heads the National Assembly. The new defense minister previously led the intelligence service and has been sanctioned by the United States, Canada and the European Union over repression under his command. The human rights group Foro Penal still counted 344 political prisoners in September, and there is still no established timetable for elections. Ten months after the U.S. operation to capture Maduro, the main obstacle to democratization is now the political and institutional system that has survived him. responsiblestatecraft.org/ve…
2
88
2
121
4,865
Imdat Oner retweeted
Today, I was asked several times about the possibility of Diosdado Cabello leaving Venezuela for #Turkey. If he were allowed to move to a third country to avoid facing justice, I think Turkey or Qatar would be the most likely destinations. Erdogan reportedly offered Maduro a chance to leave power peacefully last December, but Maduro rejected it. Cabello may see the risks ahead and decide that he needs an exit strategy of his own. We know that several members of the Maduro regime have invested in Turkey, and Cabello may have accumulated a considerable fortune there himself. If Delcy comes under pressure to push him out of the regime’s inner circle, moving him to a safe third country could be the most convenient option for everyone involved.
#LaEntrevista | 🎙️ ¿La salida de Diosdado Cabello está decidida? Miguel Contigo analiza las revelaciones del periodista @alandete y la posible salida del ministro del Interior chavista del Gobierno Encargado de Delcy Rodríguez: vuelos privados hacia Turquía, posibles movimientos de fortunas y una reorganización del gabinete. 📲 Amplía los detalles en nuestro canal de YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=3S3PPVJJ…
9
38
2
89
8,744
NEW @imdat_oner : Latin American countries do not have to choose between aligning themselves with Washington and losing their voice, but that is exactly what is happening with right wing govts who used to be the biggest critics of Chavista. responsiblestatecraft.org/ve…
1
3
678
My first op-ed for @RStatecraft is out today! What happened to all the concern about Venezuelan democracy? Across Latin America, leaders who once railed against Maduro are now eager to embrace the new-look regime. responsiblestatecraft.org/ve…
3
17
30
1,060
Today, I was asked several times about the possibility of Diosdado Cabello leaving Venezuela for #Turkey. If he were allowed to move to a third country to avoid facing justice, I think Turkey or Qatar would be the most likely destinations. Erdogan reportedly offered Maduro a chance to leave power peacefully last December, but Maduro rejected it. Cabello may see the risks ahead and decide that he needs an exit strategy of his own. We know that several members of the Maduro regime have invested in Turkey, and Cabello may have accumulated a considerable fortune there himself. If Delcy comes under pressure to push him out of the regime’s inner circle, moving him to a safe third country could be the most convenient option for everyone involved.
#LaEntrevista | 🎙️ ¿La salida de Diosdado Cabello está decidida? Miguel Contigo analiza las revelaciones del periodista @alandete y la posible salida del ministro del Interior chavista del Gobierno Encargado de Delcy Rodríguez: vuelos privados hacia Turquía, posibles movimientos de fortunas y una reorganización del gabinete. 📲 Amplía los detalles en nuestro canal de YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=3S3PPVJJ…
9
38
2
89
8,744
Top Trump adviser Ric Grenell allegedly outlined a stunning pay-for-influence offer to a Turkish billionaire last year: access to "POTUS," "VIP events" and administration officials. axios.com/2026/10/19/kennedy…
2
10
800
🎥 Goosebumps!!! A thunderous ovation for Arda from the Bernabéu! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
39
1,253
56
30,829
855,054
El Delcysmo” barre con el “madurismo” y se reposiciona en el poder. Imdat Oner, analista del Jack D. Gordon Institute y exdiplomático turco en Caracas, cuestiona la tesis de una supuesta purga revolucionaria y advierte: “Basta con observar el caso Betancourt. No conviene hacerse demasiadas ilusiones solo porque algunas de las figuras clave de Maduro estén siendo apartadas. Los rostros pueden cambiar, pero el sistema puede sobrevivir”, advierte. diarioversionfinal.com/polit…
4
58
2
68
2,950
Imdat Oner retweeted
This is the craziest Trump admin drama happening imo. @AlinaHabba accused @RichardGrenell of stealing millions from her husband. But it turns out the check was from the Congolese govt and her husband is an advisor to the president & owns mines in Congo!?! Shadiest shit possible.
101
1,309
79
4,069
193,400
Fonlar aracılığıyla milyonlarca dolar yurt dışına kaçırılırken,birileri hala ülkeye uyuşturucu üzerinden “sıcak para” sokma peşinde. Ekvador polisi Türkiye’ye gidecek iki konteynerde, çimento kolileri arasına gizlenmiş 700 kilodan fazla kokain ele geçirmiş
1
107
5
165
4,444