Rahul Punia

NIFTY Smallcap 100 | Seasonality Total observations: 180 months Positive months: 105 (58.3%) Negative months: 74 (41.1%) Maximum drawdown = -60.48% This occurred from the Dec 2017 peak to the Mar 2020 time period. Average winning month: +5.85% Average losing month: -5.29% So the average magnitude of an up month is actually slightly larger than the average magnitude of a down month. April is by far the strongest calendar month. Average: +5.52% Positive in 12 of 15 years Hit rate: 80% 🔥 February is the weakest: Average: -2.44% Positive only 6/15 times November + December Both positive 11/15 times 73.3% hit rate each 👏 Big moves are not particularly rare Monthly gain ≥ +5% 51 times Monthly gain ≥ +10% 17 times Monthly fall ≤ -5% 28 times Monthly fall ≤ -10% 12 times Monthly fall ≤ -15% 2 times Monthly fall ≤ -20% 1 time So there were 17 months with +10% or more, versus 12 months with -10% or worse. But the extreme downside event was much larger: Worst: -36.66% Best: +22.38% Among the 14 complete years from 2012-2025: Positive years: 9/14 = 64.3% Negative years: 5/14 = 35.7% Average annual return: +18.04% Median annual return: +14.33% Best full year: 2021, +59.29% Worst full year: 2018, -29.09% 2026 deserves a separate look: Through September 2026, the return is approximately: +9.05% YTD But the path has been volatile: Jan: -4.71% Feb: +0.30% Mar: -10.19% Apr: +18.44% May: +0.73% Jun: +3.99% Jul: +2.53% Aug: +3.06% Sep: -3.09% The key observation is: March -10.19% to April +18.44% That's a classic example of why looking only at annual returns can hide substantial intra-year volatility. I do not see a reason to worry at all 🙏