whail (@itswhail) header
whail (@itswhail) profile picture

focus. observing @skewtrade

Joined September 2022
Photo by whail (@itswhail)Photo by whail (@itswhail)Photo by whail (@itswhail)Photo by whail (@itswhail)Photo by whail (@itswhail)Photo by whail (@itswhail)Photo by whail (@itswhail)Photo by whail (@itswhail)Photo by whail (@itswhail)Photo by whail (@itswhail)
whail retweeted
It's a beautiful day to short Anthropic outcomes.
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On-chain look at $TREAD supply on Hyperliquid, from the Sep 16 airdrop until today: > ~64% of the airdrop has been sold. > Wallets holding at least 1 TREAD: ~3,000 at the airdrop → 1,135 now > Small recipients sold hardest: ~84% of airdrops under 5k are gone > The 19 largest recipients (100k+) still hold ~54% of theirs On the buy side: > 17 wallets/groups bought 100k+ TREAD each after the airdrop > ~4.4M TREAD bought by them in total. > Biggest buyer took 712k at $0.44 in launch week and still holds 680k > Flowdesk-linked wallets have built up ~769k (bought on spot + bridged from Ethereum) and none has sold > Several Oct–Nov buyers ($0.72–0.92) are still holding Price: $0.386 day-1 close → $0.946 now (~2.4x) Small holders have mostly exited, while larger wallets and OTC flow have absorbed the supply. One of the few launches where after 64% of the airdrop sold, price is still 2-3x the day 1 price.
Latest on ethereum:0x31eea0edeb85b0cb65c1400bd2f4e487fd61b537 PA based on onchain analysis. About 61% of the Genesis airdrop has left the recipients' wallets, and roughly 56% of the total looks actually sold. On wallets, 2,129 (71%) are now at zero, up from about 68% before. The airdrop selling has largely stalled, with a4 and a66 the main ones still selling. Some comparisons, $UNI: 82.5% of airdrop wallets were out by day 90. It bottomed at $1.93 in Nov 2020, then ran about 23x. $ARB: 84.5% of wallets were out by day 30 and 88.8% by day 90. It bottomed at $0.76 in Sep 2023, then ran 3.2x. solana:JUPyiwrYJFskUPiHa7hkeR8VUtAeFoSYbKedZNsDvCN : 94.4% of wallets were out by day 90. It bottomed at $0.47 in Feb 2024, then ran 3.9x. $PENGU: 74% of wallets were out by day 7 and 87% by day 90. It bottomed at $0.0039 in Apr 2025, three weeks after that, then ran about 12x. $LIT: about 64% of tokens sold and 82% of wallets out. It bottomed at $0.78 in Mar 2026, then ran about 7x. ethereum:0x31eea0edeb85b0cb65c1400bd2f4e487fd61b537 on day ~33: about 61% of tokens sold and 71% of wallets at zero. What stands out about ethereum:0x31eea0edeb85b0cb65c1400bd2f4e487fd61b537 is that it's trading around 3x its day-1 price even after all the airdrop selling. New buyers keep stepping in at higher valuations. And this has happened with barely any announcements from the team. Most of the supply has already changed hands at higher prices, so any catalyst from here hits a much cleaner setup. Feels like a deliberate design choice from @tread_fi. Holding 100k ethereum:0x31eea0edeb85b0cb65c1400bd2f4e487fd61b537 gets you a 50% fee discount, and the next tier is all the way up at 1M. So for most whales, 100k is the natural place to stop. You can see it on-chain: wallets with 200–300k selling down and stopping right around 100k. The extra supply goes to new buyers at higher prices. Whales get trimmed, new holders come in at higher entries, and distribution gets healthier without a crash. A 60–70% tier at 250k would have locked people in instead and slowed all of this down. But tread team seems like wanted more distribution from whales.
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whail retweeted
$1.8M paid out in the last 24 hours. ATH daily revenue. We have so much planned for the next 30 days. Please give Vest a try and let us know if there is anything we can do to improve your trading experience.
for the first time on the leaderboards the spot for most paid out isnt futures prop its a perp shop… vest takes #1 paying out 1.8 MILLION dollars holy smokes fellas cant wait to see 3-4 million a day soon PERPS ON TOP VEST ON TOP WHO CALLED IT FIRST BABYYYY
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💵 💵 💵 💵 💵 💵 💵 💵 💵 💵 250,000,000 $USDC (250,205,000 USD) minted at USDC Treasury whale-alert.io/tx/solana/4Sc…
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and then you have these futures props "influencers" wondering why we fucking love Vest I'm a nobody on Twitter and jn still took the time to reply to my bug report Vest is for the people
youre right, will check. thanks for flagging
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whail retweeted
October payouts are in. Futures prop firms paid traders $336.0M, up 24.1% month over month. More traffic and more payouts in the same month. Bright spots. @Topstep +65.0% @Tradeify +27.5% @fnfutures +15.3% @TradingLucid is still #1 with $105.3M paid. Still the big 6. Just 6 of 28 tracked futures firms paid out ~92% of tracked futures payouts in October. And Vest crashed the party. The perpetual futures firm went from $1.36M paid in September to $24.0M in Perptober, jumping from 12th to 5th on the board.
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whail retweeted
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whail retweeted
$30 MILLION in 30 days perpetual firms are starting to ramp up currently @VestExchange sits on top with over $20,000,000 paid out in 30 however i can see everyone else is paying more and more each month as well 100 million by end of year is possible excited for the industry to evolve even more track progress and wallet balances yourself: payoutflow.co @payoutflow
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Life 5hrs after leaving crypto
I’m done. Actually done this time. Got into crypto in 2017 because a guy at the gym said “decentralization.” Nine years of telling myself I was early. At some point early is just wrong for longer than everyone else. Deleting the apps. Going to touch grass for a while.
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I’m done. Actually done this time. Got into crypto in 2017 because a guy at the gym said “decentralization.” Nine years of telling myself I was early. At some point early is just wrong for longer than everyone else. Deleting the apps. Going to touch grass for a while.
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whail retweeted
it’s impossible to overstate how much damage Binance has done to crypto
it’s impossible to overstate how much damage Binance has done to crypto.
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sorry but the whoile druckenmiller and elon tweet, followed by a binance hack all within the same day isnt a coincidence lol
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whail retweeted
there is literally no better risk/reward opportunity in the entire crypto industry right now than trading prediction markets on HIP-4 it’s time to change your destiny
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What if everything goes right?
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CT is very powerful we just decide to bicker over nonsense instead of combining our influence and capital to create So much opportunity in the coming years Less complaining more solutions, bring back the golden days
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fomo vs pump > kendrick vs drake
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Latest on ethereum:0x31eea0edeb85b0cb65c1400bd2f4e487fd61b537 PA based on onchain analysis. About 61% of the Genesis airdrop has left the recipients' wallets, and roughly 56% of the total looks actually sold. On wallets, 2,129 (71%) are now at zero, up from about 68% before. The airdrop selling has largely stalled, with a4 and a66 the main ones still selling. Some comparisons, $UNI: 82.5% of airdrop wallets were out by day 90. It bottomed at $1.93 in Nov 2020, then ran about 23x. $ARB: 84.5% of wallets were out by day 30 and 88.8% by day 90. It bottomed at $0.76 in Sep 2023, then ran 3.2x. solana:JUPyiwrYJFskUPiHa7hkeR8VUtAeFoSYbKedZNsDvCN : 94.4% of wallets were out by day 90. It bottomed at $0.47 in Feb 2024, then ran 3.9x. $PENGU: 74% of wallets were out by day 7 and 87% by day 90. It bottomed at $0.0039 in Apr 2025, three weeks after that, then ran about 12x. $LIT: about 64% of tokens sold and 82% of wallets out. It bottomed at $0.78 in Mar 2026, then ran about 7x. ethereum:0x31eea0edeb85b0cb65c1400bd2f4e487fd61b537 on day ~33: about 61% of tokens sold and 71% of wallets at zero. What stands out about ethereum:0x31eea0edeb85b0cb65c1400bd2f4e487fd61b537 is that it's trading around 3x its day-1 price even after all the airdrop selling. New buyers keep stepping in at higher valuations. And this has happened with barely any announcements from the team. Most of the supply has already changed hands at higher prices, so any catalyst from here hits a much cleaner setup. Feels like a deliberate design choice from @tread_fi. Holding 100k ethereum:0x31eea0edeb85b0cb65c1400bd2f4e487fd61b537 gets you a 50% fee discount, and the next tier is all the way up at 1M. So for most whales, 100k is the natural place to stop. You can see it on-chain: wallets with 200–300k selling down and stopping right around 100k. The extra supply goes to new buyers at higher prices. Whales get trimmed, new holders come in at higher entries, and distribution gets healthier without a crash. A 60–70% tier at 250k would have locked people in instead and slowed all of this down. But tread team seems like wanted more distribution from whales.
Since Sep 27, a group of large wallets has been buying $TREAD at $0.90 and above. > 12 wallets bought ~1.6M TREAD on the open market at an average of $0.90+ (market maker excluded) > ~1.0M of that is still held by 8 wallets, with entries mostly between $1.00 and $1.20 > The 16 largest recent buyers together hold ~2.7M TREAD, about 21% of the 13M circulating supply, at an average price above 0.9. > Several are single positions of 75k–250k TREAD These are new holders with a much higher cost basis than airdrop recipients, buying in size at current prices. On the supply side: > Holding 100k TREAD gives a 50% fee discount on TreadFi, so most large airdrop wallets have a reason to keep at least 100k instead of exiting fully > That makes a meaningful part of whale balances effectively sticky supply Upcoming demand drivers: > Exchanges integrating through TIP-4 are expected to need TREAD, reportedly around 100k each (exact amounts not public) > The Agent Marketplace requires TREAD to list agents > A potential Season 2 would add trading volume, which drives the builder fees the platform earns More volume means more fees, and if buybacks are introduced, fee growth would feed directly into demand for TREAD. Data: Hyperliquid on-chain fills and TWAP history. Not financial advice.
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