Growth @ Kalshi
New York, NY
Joined October 2013
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Power to the people
Every election brings new polls, headlines, and predictions.
In a free and open market, those trades bring together information from people across the country to produce a market price that updates in real time.
As new information comes in, people can change their minds. The odds change with them.
Markets tell you the odds. Voters decide the outcome.
Jace Foddrill retweeted
Every election brings new polls, headlines, and predictions.
In a free and open market, those trades bring together information from people across the country to produce a market price that updates in real time.
As new information comes in, people can change their minds. The odds change with them.
Markets tell you the odds. Voters decide the outcome.
Bro ??? @BLouu
Jace Foddrill retweeted
Yes, a bet and a trade often look similar.
But how they work is fundamentally different.
A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet. Prediction markets are markets, where buyers and sellers compete to discover and produce efficient prices and enable important public benefits.
What the market is about can change, but the structure doesn't.
My op-ed on prediction markets and regulation:
Jace Foddrill retweeted
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi are joining forces to build the next generation of financial markets.
The Dow launched in 1896. The S&P 500 in 1957. The idea was simple: bring individual stocks together into a single benchmark, giving people a clearer view of the broader market.
Over time, products built around those benchmarks transformed investing. Index funds, ETFs, futures, and options gave investors ways to gain diversified market exposure and hedge broad market swings.
These indices became foundations of global finance. More than $20 trillion is indexed or benchmarked to the S&P 500 alone.
Today, this structure extends beyond stocks to bonds, commodities, currencies, and more.
The next step is to bring that structure to the events that shape everyone’s lives.
Through this partnership, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi will work together to create indices composed of Kalshi event contracts.
Think about what that opens up.
An index of political power. An index of supply chain risk. An index tracking AI’s impact on employment. An index of sports outcomes that affect broadcasters, advertisers, cities, and small businesses. An index of weather risks that shape harvests, energy demand, and business revenues.
Each would bundle event contracts into a single indicator, helping people understand how related risks are evolving.
Over time, products built around these indices could offer diversified exposure to those events and new ways to hedge their impact.
The events that shape our lives could become as easy to track and gain exposure to as the S&P 500.
Jace Foddrill retweeted
Prediction markets are transparent, both in their incentives (people want to make money and avoid losing money) and their method (free markets aggregating millions of opinions).
Polls are not.
Regulate polls, not prediction markets. There’s no evidence that betting harms election integrity, but fake surveys have done so this year, write Harry Crane @HarryDCrane and @KolemanStrumpf
on.wsj.com/4i8zIKq
Jace Foddrill retweeted
Every Tesla, every Starlink dish, every rocket on the pad. All of it needs tungsten. It’s in chips, jet engines, drones, missiles, and armor-piercing rounds.
It's in everything America is trying to build. China controls most of the world’s supply. Prices are up 500%+, including a 94% spike in six weeks this spring.
Oil has futures. Gold has futures. Copper has futures. Tungsten had nothing. So we built it.
Through @PillarHQ, an Ohio metals distributor locked in protection against tungsten prices on Kalshi. A real American business, hedged against a geopolitical supply shock, on a market that didn’t exist until now.
Jace Foddrill retweeted
The clearest explanation I’ve seen of the difference between prediction markets and sportsbooks.
Amazing how much of the media still fails to understand the basic mechanics.
🤝 Paid partnership
Jace Foddrill retweeted
An LA hospitality group runs 25 bars, many of them right by Dodger Stadium. Every extra playoff game means packed bars. An early exit means lost revenue they were counting on.
So they hedged it. They put $60,000 on Kalshi on the Dodgers *not* making the World Series.
The Dodgers lost the NLCS to the Brewers. The position returned nearly 2x, helping cover the playoff business that *never* came.
A Columbia law professor told Fortune it works like “a form of bespoke insurance.”
Read the full story here: fortune.com/2026/10/19/predi…
Jace Foddrill retweeted
We are less than two hours away from a Parisian style MEGA BLASTER of a Night Stream! youtube.com/live/LwnVb8OxQkE…
Jace Foddrill retweeted
Ascend Properties manages a portfolio of luxury rentals in Big Sky, Montana, one of the country’s top ski destinations.
Weak December snowfall doesn’t just hurt the holidays. It drags down bookings for the rest of the season.
So rather than hope for powder, Adam Farr, who runs Ascend, hedged the risk on Kalshi. He took a $2,000 position on Big Sky getting below-average snowfall in December.
If the snow comes, bookings run as normal and Ascend serves the ski crowd like any other season.
If it doesn’t, the Kalshi position pays out, helping offset lost bookings while Ascend waits for winter to show up.
Either way, Adam’s business is protected.
