GIS & Election Science | @DecisionDeskHQ GovCast | Political Analysis Across the Globe
Florida, USA
Joined July 2021
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Jake Marks retweeted
Moderate-affiliated candidates overperformed in swing areas; left-affiliated candidates overperformed in the most Democratic areas & underperformed in others
economist.com/graphic-detail…
Jake Marks retweeted
Resharing: working on a more formal measure of overperformance, but preliminarily @BlueDogBark backed challengers ran 4.6 pts better than other Dem challengers after controls. Bobby Pulido’s +43 in TX-15 was truly extraordinary.
Jake Marks retweeted
Decision Desk HQ projects No wins the CA Proposition 40 - One-Time Wealth Tax for State-Funded Healthcare, Education, and Food Assistance Programs Nonpartisan Ballot Question
#DecisionMade: 8:51 PM EST
Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/rac…
Jake Marks retweeted
Tennessee's new map cracked Memphis into three GOP seats. On the 2024 lines, 2026's House vote would have elected 2 Democrats
Old map: 7R-2D
New map: 8R-1D, with Dems leading TN-4 by 280 votes and losing TN-9 by 1 pt
per @DecisionDeskHQ
Tennessee's new map cracked Memphis into three GOP seats. On the 2024 lines, 2026's House vote would have elected 2 Democrats
Old map: 7R-2D
New map: 8R-1D, with Dems leading TN-4 by 280 votes and losing TN-9 by 1 pt
per @DecisionDeskHQ
Jake Marks retweeted
UT Republicans' Map C was drawn for a 4-0 GOP sweep, but failed to pass. With 2026's House vote, it likely would have elected 2 Dems
Current map: 3R-1D
Old 2021 map: 2R-2D
Map C: 2R-2D
per @DecisionDeskHQ, with an est. 15-25% of ballots still uncounted
UT Republicans' Map C was drawn for a 4-0 GOP sweep, but failed to pass. With 2026's House vote, it likely would have elected 2 Dems
Current map: 3R-1D
Old 2021 map: 2R-2D
Map C: 2R-2D
per @DecisionDeskHQ, with an est. 15-25% of ballots still uncounted
Jake Marks retweeted
With the Conley projection, DDHQ now says that there will be zero, count 'em zero, Republican-held crossover seats won by Kamala Harris in 2024.
Decision Desk HQ projects Cait Conley wins the NY US House 17 General Election
#DecisionMade: 9:19 PM EST
Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/rac…
Jake Marks retweeted
In WI David Crowley beat Tom Tiffany by 8.5 points, a 9.4-point swing from 2024, continuing Dem control of the office
Down ballot, Democrats flipped both chambers, taking the Assembly 53-46 and the Senate 18-15 for their first trifecta since 2010, per @DecisionDeskHQ
In WI David Crowley beat Tom Tiffany by 8.5 points, a 9.4-point swing from 2024, continuing Dem control of the office
Down ballot, Democrats flipped both chambers, taking the Assembly 53-46 and the Senate 18-15 for their first trifecta since 2010, per @DecisionDeskHQ
Jake Marks retweeted
In Minnesota the DFL is set for a full trifecta
Gov: Klobuchar wins by 12.9
House: 71 DFL wins + 6 leads = 77-57 (5 flips won, 5 leading)
Senate: 36 DFL wins + 3 leads = 39-28 (3 flips won, 3 leading; GOP leads 1 flip)
per @DecisionDeskHQ
In Minnesota the DFL is set for a full trifecta
Gov: Klobuchar wins by 12.9
House: 71 DFL wins + 6 leads = 77-57 (5 flips won, 5 leading)
Senate: 36 DFL wins + 3 leads = 39-28 (3 flips won, 3 leading; GOP leads 1 flip)
per @DecisionDeskHQ
Jake Marks retweeted
Despite a far stronger national environment for Democrats, Independent Dan Osborn's second run for Senate did not end up different than his first.
He trails projected winner Pete Ricketts by 6.8%, a worse margin in 2024 (6.7%).
Jake Marks retweeted
From 1994 through 2022, the president’s party lost only 2 of 54 Senate seats it defended in midterms in states that leaned 10+ points its way vs. the nation in the last presidential.
In 2026, the GOP has lost at least 4: Texas, Kansas, South Carolina & Iowa.
Jake Marks retweeted
Virginia Democrats' HB 29 map was approved by voters in April but was struck down by the state Supreme Court
Run the 2026 House vote through it and Dems would have won 10 of 11 seats. On the current map they still won 8, flipping VA-1 and VA-2, per @DecisionDeskHQ @geoffreyvs
Virginia Democrats' HB 29 map was approved by voters in April but was struck down by the state Supreme Court
Run the 2026 House vote through it and Dems would have won 10 of 11 seats. On the current map they still won 8, flipping VA-1 and VA-2, per @DecisionDeskHQ @geoffreyvs
Jake Marks retweeted
Can confirm Shane Massey was feeling good about the Senate's decision to *not* do this today.
South Carolina and Indiana Republicans drew 7-0 and 9-0 maps that never passed. In 2026, both would have backfired
SC: 4R-3D on the House vote vs 5R-2D on the current map
IN: Bayh (D) carried all 9 proposed districts for SoS. Dems won 3 seats on the current map
@DecisionDeskHQ
Jake Marks retweeted
ANOTHER INSANE MAP: Beau Bayh actually won all 9 proposed Republican gerrymandered districts in the GOP proposed map (and none were even particularly close.) The numbers here are even better than the other map, which used the House race data.
Thanks to @jakemarks42 for the data
