Gold's recent weakness may be setting the stage for its next advance. Our short-term leading indicator has fallen to extremely oversold levels, suggesting gold may be nearing the end of its decline. Meanwhile, gold continues to hold above $4,000 and its rising 23-month moving average. But there's another key level we're watching closely. A sustained move above it could signal the start of a renewed advance across the entire metals sector. Where do you see gold heading next?

I don't think Jake is harsh enough about long-term TIPS. Some people say the 3% real yield on 30 year TIPS is a “guaranteed” high return. This understates the risks: 1) Inflation is personal, not national. TIPS track CPI, not your spending. And in a taxable account you pay tax on the inflation adjustment every year before you get the cash. At 4% inflation and a 24% bracket, that 3% real becomes about 1.3%. 2) The irony of TIPS is they’re the bond most likely to get stiffed in a very high inflation. Rising inflation raises the government’s interest bill when it can least afford it. Argentina didn’t default on its inflation-linked bonds. It just understated inflation for years. Same result. TIPS are supposed to protect you from inflation, but in a high inflation the government has every incentive to make sure they don’t. 3) TIPS lag. They’re indexed to CPI from about three months ago, and the inflation adjustment gets added to principal you don’t receive until maturity. So in a high inflation, when you need the cash most, they aren’t even keeping up in real time. TIPS are a useful shorter duration matching tool, one of the best. They’re just not a guarantee, certainly not in the long-run. And for most people matching long duration assets to long duration liabilities, equities are usually the better option, in large part because the return premium comes from the lack of a guarantee.

Everyone is trying to position for "the inevitable rebound rally." Alternative scenario: Lower until the bottom pickers puke (mid-November?), THEN a bounce. @sentimentrader

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are trading near record highs. But the caution signs continue flashing. Market breadth has plunged to a century-low! That means fewer stocks are doing the heavy lifting, while many others are struggling. The indexes remain bullish, but the foundation is looking increasingly fragile.

This is the Buffett Indicator. It takes the total value of the US stock market and divides it by US GDP. Right now it reads 244%. That is the highest on the chart, and above the +2 standard deviation historical trend line. Does this even matter anymore?

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY MIND-BLOWING: Call-option volume on the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, $TLT, has exploded to a record 14.9 million contracts over the last month. This is TRIPLE the levels seen in January. This signals rapidly growing bullish positioning toward long-term Treasuries, as call options give traders exposure to a potential rise in bond prices if yields fall. The bet comes after the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields spiked to 5.33% and 5.73%, their highest levels in 24 years. Meanwhile, $TLT is down -8.5% so far in 2026 and fell -9.0% in Q3 alone. Options traders are increasingly betting that the historic rise in yields is approaching its limit. Risky bets on long-term Treasuries are skyrocketing.

Here is another way of seeing @MebFaber's question. The 13.9% annualized rate of returns for the SP500 (before dividends) of the most recent 10 years may not be what you get to see over the next 10 years.

FWIW: Based on a surge in bullish trader sentiment, weak seasonality (which I have ignored until now), and a clear "Line in the sand" (at 3.4193), I am bearish on Unleaded Gas until further notice (or the line in the sand gets taken out, whichever comes first). @sentimentrader