Joe (@joedab12) profile picture

Sold my finance co in 2021, now trade/invest full time. Specialty is finding semi/AI infra inflection points before the breakout. Lots of receipts. Zero AI slop

Las Vegas, NV
Joined March 2013
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Jensen is gone, move on. Great ceo/founder, horrible decisions made. If youre still caught up in drama and not focused on making money on other companies who capitalize on this thats a damn shame. Hes not a hero, never was, dont idolize men. Make your money
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I agree with @pequityresearch Its looking like theyre out to get Jensen to protect Anthropic and OpenAI right before they ipo. Sounds like evidence against Jensen was had for months….the timing of all this is extra suspicious, right before anthropic IPO. Prop up and protect anthropic and openai, while Im not a fan of either ceo, this is good for the overall ai and semiconductor market. All roads STILL lead to $VICR - there is no ai accelerator without vpd in 2028-29+ My $AVGO adds all looking good, ppi tomorrow- dip there and Ill add even more. Still heavy in cash but not as heavy as a week or two ago.
They are going to ban Chinese models. It's coming. Congrats to Anthropic and OpenAI on the much needed MOAT.
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Jensen leaving is not bearish AI, its bearish NVDA(near term, long term depends on too many variables to make an accurate prediction now). Doubt they can find someone who can wear all the hats he wore. $AVGO $AMD clearly benefit from this debacle, I will continue to add to my now medium size $AVGO position over time. AMD has been strong but I still have a hard time believing they will do as well as some think outside of CPU which is great(and critical). AMD valuation assumes success already. AVGO valuation assumes openai and anthropic ipo will have issues IMO. Any diversification away from $NVDA to more custom silicon only helps $VICR who soon will own the architecture at the point of load. If you see the jump $CBRS made from cs-3 to cs-4, it was all enabled by Vicor gen2 VPD. Google is already a licensee and likely to be the next customer to adopt gen2 vpd for at least one of their tpus in 2028(ramping h2 2027). AMD also likely putting gen2 vpd through qualification currently, clearly they are already a Vicor customer in some capacity and this is their chance to gain an edge, gen2 vpd is a huge jump over everything delta/mpwr and others have to offer.
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First product ever powered by gen2 vpd from $VICR More to come from google amd nvda in the future I believe.
Fearless Engineering: The CS-4 is our first engineering documentary. Through lab footage and conversations with the engineers behind each breakthrough, the film follows the creation of the CS-4, our latest wafer-scale AI system. 0:00 introducing the engineering team 1:09 Wafer-scale history 2:28 Powering the wafer 4:00 The cooling problem 4:18 Designing the cold plate 5:11 Holes in the wafer 6:33 the alignment problem 7:47 The CS-4 PRD 8:35 Designing for deployability and serviceability 11:01 Removing the motherboard 11:25 Removing internal cooling loops 11:41 inventing the power rack 12:35 A one-person lab deployment 14:03 Backpack: 50% fewer components 14:55 Connecting the compute backpack to cooling manifold 17:58 shifting Cerebras’s focus from training to inference 19:09 Building the Cerebras Cloud 20:01 CS-3 vs. CS-4 performance 20:49 3D Stacked DRAM
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They say markets bottom on bad news. Im not saying its a bottom but i added avgo and vicr premarket
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wow so many idiots getting unfollowed, not because I disagree but because their emotions are out of control and lack logic.
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$VICR officially has a license with $NVDA and we know with 99.99% confidence that the “large hyperscaler” licensee is $GOOG
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So hyperscalers up on the thought that their free cashflow will improve due to data center moratoriums. Logic makes sense. But hyperscalers WANT to spend more because they know it leads to more free cashflow in the future. Semis down but nvda only down 2% when a fear of a dc slowdown is taking over. NVDA would probably be down 5-6% if the index was flat I think. yields down due to "less capex" and oil down for some unknown reason. Im now 40% cash(was 35% but the drop in equity value took it to 40 LOL), no worries. No rush to buy. My thought is the hyperscalers likely expected a democratic sweep and have been overplanning for next year with the expectation that some projects get put on hold. We have even heard of double orders for some power equipment-logic is sound, can't be sure. I dont think AI is "over" but I think retail is too used to buying the dip and getting a quick recovery, give it at least a few weeks to see how this plays out. told everyone to raise cash in late sept and right at the top on october 6th-those who listened saved themselves. Some of those who didnt are crying the market is rigged/scam etc etc. Oh well thats life. I'm healthy and rich, just not as rich as I was a few weeks(or months) ago. Will definitely have another epic run when the rookies are obliterated.
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had a feeling all that talk over the weekend was late bears spreading fud. Still not bullish for the record, but def smelled like fud.
you should scramble to get compute because I have a feeling it's about to get ugly
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$VICR serious question, if a "large hyperscaler" signs a 2 year license for NBM products in 2025 that expires at the end of 2026...when would they be discussing the renewal? And if they tack on a VPD license like the 2 most recent licensees have, I imagine the price would be a lot higher than just the NBM license right?
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👀👀👀
$CBRS The thermal management concerns are finally being put to rest. Extensive research and engineering are backing the technology. Bullish
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$CBRS nibbled a bit under 100 and sold 11/13 108 strike covered calls for a little over 5 on an equal amount of shares I grabbed at 113 just in case this gets out of hand.
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$AAOI outperforming $LITE and $MRVL today, just an observation. I own both aaoi and lite, lite position is very small, aaoi position I'd call medium sized. I expect this deal to ultimately benefit AAOI the most if they can meet even 85% of their expected ramp the next few quarters. The market cap discrepancy is pricing in catastrophic failure which I doubt happens.
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this would be bullish if successful
🇮🇱 LIBERMAN BACKS EISENKOT, RULES OUT COALITION WITH NETANYAHU Israeli opposition leader Avigdor Liberman reportedly said his party will recommend Gadi Eisenkot to lead the next government. Liberman reiterated that Benjamin Netanyahu must leave office, ruling out joining a coalition with him even under a rotating premiership. He also said Yair Lapid wants to become Speaker of the Knesset and pledged support for his candidacy.
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This $MRVL/ $LITE deal becomes really bullish for $AAOI for two reasons. Even with no premium on the deal....currently LITE is 12x or so AAOI market cap. AAOI 2028 capacity is set to be half of LITE's. Yes there's execution risk, I'm well aware and was one of the few pounding the table in 30s and got laughed at for selling 2/3 at 130 the first time it got there LOL. That being said, MRVL willing to pay half their market cap for LITE just validates the importance of having laser manufacturing capacity. Shit on AAOI mgmt all you want, their scale is going to be tremendous and they will have even more than LITE as far as American Capacity goes. Lastly, LITE bulls disappear and many wont hold MRVL. Photonics bulls have less names to go after. AAOI benefits. One of the names I nibbled on today. Could go much lower, my base case is the index isnt done dipping yet, but base cases don't always play out so worth a nibble. Stay tuned for more. Hopefully serenity disagrees with me, that'd make more bullish.
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Nice day to be heavy in cash? Only tiny nibbles, very tiny today. Looking for more panic. But trump could also save the market with a bullshit statement sunday night and we chop around a few more days/weeks. Core positions in tact, 35% cash. Zero stress.
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$AMZN taking a beating but this is good to see for semis
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$CBRS green while semis red a day after the bullshit hit piece. Go figure. Holding 1500 shares now. This will end up looking like a cyber security play after a few more incidents and deployments take place. Might go lower after earnings, my full position is not built yet. Will wait for after earnings, if it runs before I have full size-oh well. If it dips on no bad news-I'll add more eventually.
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