Public equities/options, card product @mercury. Eternal superalloy cubes @ https://teapaw.org/t.co/fz34u7r194.
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Joined April 2014
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Answer was yup. Closed $SKHY $000660.ks again. Just skittish with the memory trade.
Does Belen Garijo got that dog in her? $ABVX
ft.com/content/e481233f-77bc…
If no one else steps up to bid $ABVX higher than her max bid of €15B, could see her taking the shot.
Launch obe, finish the Crohn’s trial, setup a bunch of combos, ride off into the sunset as the savior of Sanofi and curer of IBD?
Reminds me of this tweet by @Biohazard3737. She would be remembered for obe, and being end of career, I bet she cares about that.
Also funnily enough she certainly remembers Winrevair specifically from her vantage point as Merck KGaA CEO seeing the launch across the pond!
A couple $ABVX notes, incl a strong source of copium for me as I baghold (am down ~$50k YTD on it but feelsbad given +~400k previously):
1. There are 2.1m M&A linked shares from the 2025-1 AGA. 475k are MdG's. All expire YE 2027. So $178m of employee value lost if no txn by YE.
Scenario 1: Say $ABVX acq for $100/sh (illustrative). He now owns 2.45m shares worth $245m.
Scenario 2: No $ABVX acq. Loses 475k shares. Say re-granted another ~$10m/115k M&A shares at $85. 2.09m shares post-YE27. He would need an acq of ($245m/2.09m)=$117, or 17% higher, for it to be equiv to acq prior to YE27.
I think he'll sell.
Pretty remarkable. This is a quote that will likely update a lot of priors in the coming days/weeks (as it has mine):
"There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized."
If this is true whoever holds whatever gets bought out is going to be max blessed to get liquidity in such a target rich environment. $ABVX please 🥰
One last note. I gotta say, after staring at comparison tables all day between obefazimod vs tulisokibart, omvoh, duvakitug, Tremfya, and icotrokinra, it is pretty wild how good the obe data is, ESPECIALLY given trial design/reporting.
Like why did $ABVX mgmt design the trial to be basically total hardmode (and then STILL crush)?
-Just 8 week induction vs 10 or 12
-Took ALL-COMERS (come at me bro) refractory patients with UNLIMITED prior therapies (which btw explains obe trial's low placebo CR/ER rates) vs others' trials that limited to patients who tried max 1-2 therapies prior
-Absurd endoscopic remission #s (~40 pbo-adjusted!), which many don't even report (just improvement)
Okay, finished looking at pipelines/context of $ABVX acquirers. 🧵
- $JNJ : teapaw.org/johnkmason/status/2110…
- $LLY / $MRK: teapaw.org/johnkmason/status/2110…
- $SNY / $PFE: teapaw.org/johnkmason/status/2111…
@seedy19tron with Icotyde trial design as an example of the max prior therapies point:
teapaw.org/seedy19tron/status/211…
Good results small caveat, Ico $PTGX excluded pts who had failed 3+ advanced classes and anyone with prior p19 exposure. Obe's $ABVX ph3 enrolled 47% AT IR, 21% JAK IR, with no cap on prior failures, and showed a Δ29 response at 50mg in the 4+ failure group. Also Ico 12W vs 8W Obe, and we know response improves over time.
@DaveARicks you could be the greatest pharma CEO ever by presiding over not only the cure to obesity with tirz but also UC/probably CD with obefazimod.
WITHOUT clinical OR reg risk and with a discount from cancelling EMERALD-3. And you haven't yet, because you want to be cheap...?
Okay, finished looking at pipelines/context of $ABVX acquirers. 🧵
- $JNJ : teapaw.org/johnkmason/status/2110…
- $LLY / $MRK: teapaw.org/johnkmason/status/2110…
- $SNY / $PFE: teapaw.org/johnkmason/status/2111…
My read is $LLY is the most obvious given their balance sheet/flexibility, middling to lagging position in IBD (but real program), and expressed interest.
Just a matter of if @DaveARicks wants to actually win IBD or pretend like he does while continuing to bask in tirz.
